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The dilemma of choosing talent: Michael Jordans are hard to find

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  • Peter Groothuis
  • James Richard Hill
  • Timothy Perri

Abstract

This article explores the dilemma of choosing talent using NBA data from 1987 to 2003. We find there is much uncertainty in selecting talent. If superstars are found, they are usually identified early. However, more false positives exist than correct decisions with high draft picks. Our results suggest the dilemma of choosing talent is not so much a winner's curse but more like a purchase of a lottery ticket. Most times you lose, but, if you are going to win, you must buy a ticket.

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File URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/00036840701564459
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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Taylor & Francis Journals in its journal Applied Economics.

Volume (Year): 41 (2009)
Issue (Month): 25 ()
Pages: 3193-3198

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Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:41:y:2009:i:25:p:3193-3198

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  1. Breusch, T.S. & Pagan, A.R., . "The Lagrange multiplier test and its applications to model specification in econometrics," CORE Discussion Papers RP -412, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
  2. Pepall, Lynne M & Richards, Daniel J, 2001. "Reach for the Stars: A Strategic Bidding Game," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 68(272), pages 489-504, November.
  3. Rosen, Sherwin, 1981. "The Economics of Superstars," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(5), pages 845-58, December.
  4. Peter Groothuis & Richard Hill & Timothy Perri, 2004. "Early Entry in the NBA Draft: The Influence of Unraveling, Human Capital and Option Value," Working Papers 04-05, Department of Economics, Appalachian State University, revised 2005.
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Cited by:
  1. Kenn Ariga & Giorgio Brunello & Roki Iwahashi & Lorenzo Rocco, 2008. "The Stairways to Heaven: A Model of Career Choice in Sports and Games, with an Application to Chess," KIER Working Papers 646, Kyoto University, Institute of Economic Research.
  2. Dennis Coates & Babatunde Oguntimein, 2010. "The Length and Success of NBA Careers: Does College Production Predict Professional Outcomes?," International Journal of Sport Finance, Fitness Information Technology, vol. 5(1), pages 4-26, February.
  3. Timothy Perri, 2012. "Between the penthouse and the outhouse: the sorting of economics professors," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(18), pages 1899-1902, December.
  4. Ryan M. Rodenberg & Jun Woo Kim, 2011. "Precocity and labor market outcomes: Evidence from professional basketball," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 31(3), pages 2185-2190.

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