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Market interdependence and financial volatility transmission in East Asia

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  • Giampiero M. Gallo

    (Dipartimento di Statistica 'G. Parenti', Universit� di Firenze, Italy)

  • Margherita Velucchi

    (Dipartimento di Statistica 'G. Parenti', Universit� di Firenze, Italy)

Abstract

In this paper, we adapt the Multiplicative Error Model (MEM) to analyze the interdependence of volatility across markets. The MEM specifies the dynamics of a volatility proxy (absolute returns) for one market including terms accounting for an asymmetric impact of good or bad news on the market, and possible volatility spillover terms from other markets. The specific empirical focus of the paper is on the interdependence structure of seven East Asian markets between 1990 and 2005. We pay specific attention to the stability of the significance of the links across markets on subperiods that consider or exclude the 1997 crisis and contrast results between earlier samples and more recent ones. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. in its journal International Journal of Finance & Economics.

Volume (Year): 14 (2009)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
Pages: 24-44

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Handle: RePEc:ijf:ijfiec:v:14:y:2009:i:1:p:24-44

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  1. Ilan Goldfajn & Taimur Baig, 1999. "Financial market contagion in the Asian crisis," Textos para discussão 400, Department of Economics PUC-Rio (Brazil).
  2. Giampiero M. Gallo & Edoardo Otranto, 2007. "Volatility transmission across markets: a Multichain Markov Switching model," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(8), pages 659-670.
  3. International Monetary Fund, 1998. "Leading Indicators of Banking Crises," IMF Working Papers 98/91, International Monetary Fund.
  4. Eichengreen, Barry & Rose, Andrew K & Wyplosz, Charles, 1996. "Contagious Currency Crises," CEPR Discussion Papers 1453, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  5. Fernandez-Izquierdo, Angeles & Lafuente, Juan Angel, 2004. "International transmission of stock exchange volatility: Empirical evidence from the Asian crisis," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 125-137, August.
  6. Carmen M. Reinhart & Graciela L. Kaminsky, 1999. "The Twin Crises: The Causes of Banking and Balance-of-Payments Problems," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(3), pages 473-500, June.
  7. Sebastian Edwards & Raul Susmel, 2003. "Interest-Rate Volatility in Emerging Markets," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(2), pages 328-348, May.
  8. Reinhart, Carmen & Kaminsky, Graciela & Lizondo, Saul, 1998. "Leading Indicators of Currency Crises," MPRA Paper 6981, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  9. Stephen GRENVILLE, 2007. "Regional and Global Responses to the Asian Crisis," Asian Economic Policy Review, Japan Center for Economic Research, vol. 2(1), pages 54-70.
  10. Ranil Salgado & Luca Antonio Ricci & Francesco Caramazza, 2000. "Trade and Financial Contagion in Currency Crises," IMF Working Papers 00/55, International Monetary Fund.
  11. Sebastian Edwards & Raul Susmel, 2001. "Volatility Dependence and Contagion in Emerging Equity Markets," NBER Working Papers 8506, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. Marcello Pericoli & Massimo Sbracia, 2001. "A Primer on Financial Contagion," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 407, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  13. Chalongphob SUSSANGKARN & Pakorn VICHYANOND, 2007. "Ten Years After the Financial Crisis in Thailand: What Has Been Learned or Not Learned?," Asian Economic Policy Review, Japan Center for Economic Research, vol. 2(1), pages 100-118.
  14. Van Rijckeghem, Caroline & Weder, Beatrice, 2001. "Sources of contagion: is it finance or trade?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(2), pages 293-308, August.
  15. Jong-Wha LEE & Changyong RHEE, 2007. "Crisis and Recovery: What We Have Learned from the South Korean Experience?," Asian Economic Policy Review, Japan Center for Economic Research, vol. 2(1), pages 146-164.
  16. Robert Engle, 2002. "New frontiers for arch models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 17(5), pages 425-446.
  17. Graciela Laura Kaminsky, 1999. "Currency and Banking Crises," IMF Working Papers 99/178, International Monetary Fund.
  18. Engle, Robert F. & Gallo, Giampiero M., 2006. "A multiple indicators model for volatility using intra-daily data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 131(1-2), pages 3-27.
  19. Sebastian Edwards, 1998. "Interest Rate Volatility, Capital Controls, and Contagion," NBER Working Papers 6756, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  20. Hal HILL & Takashi SHIRAISHI, 2007. "Indonesia After the Asian Crisis," Asian Economic Policy Review, Japan Center for Economic Research, vol. 2(1), pages 123-141.
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Cited by:
  1. Abbas, Qaisar & Khan, Sabeen & Shah, Syed Zulfiqar Ali, 2013. "Volatility transmission in regional Asian stock markets," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 16(C), pages 66-77.
  2. Khalifa, Ahmed A.A. & Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Otranto, Edoardo, 2014. "Patterns of volatility transmissions within regime switching across GCC and global markets," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 512-524.
  3. Małgorzata Doman & Ryszard Doman, 2013. "Dynamic linkages between stock markets: the effects of crises and globalization," Portuguese Economic Journal, Springer, vol. 12(2), pages 87-112, August.
  4. Zheng, Tingguo & Zuo, Haomiao, 2013. "Reexamining the time-varying volatility spillover effects: A Markov switching causality approach," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 643-662.

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