IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ijc/ijcjou/y2022q2a5.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Some Like it Hot: Assessing Longer-Term Labor Market Benefits from a High-Pressure Economy

Author

Listed:
  • Julie L. Hotchkiss

    (Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta and Georgia State University)

  • Robert E. Moore

    (Georgia State University)

Abstract

This paper finds that both "hot" and "cold" economic environments affect current and future labor market outcomes (i.e., time spent unemployed and out of the labor force and hourly pay) differentially between advantaged and disadvantaged groups. Using longitudinal data, we find that while disadvantaged workers reap greater benefits from exposure to hot economies, that benefit alone is not enough to offset the greater cost of exposure to cold economic environments. This suggests that an over-expansive policy is limited in its ability to achieve lasting reductions in labor market gaps, which would likely be better served by a policy prioritizing reduced economic volatility.

Suggested Citation

  • Julie L. Hotchkiss & Robert E. Moore, 2022. "Some Like it Hot: Assessing Longer-Term Labor Market Benefits from a High-Pressure Economy," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 18(2), pages 193-243, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:ijc:ijcjou:y:2022:q:2:a:5
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.ijcb.org/journal/ijcb22q2a5.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: http://www.ijcb.org/journal/ijcb22q2a5.htm
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Couch, Kenneth A. & Fairlie, Robert W. & Xu, Huanan, 2020. "The Impacts of COVID-19 on Minority Unemployment: First Evidence from April 2020 CPS Microdata," IZA Discussion Papers 13264, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    2. Kristie M. Engemann & Howard J. Wall, 2010. "The effects of recessions across demographic groups," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 92(Jan), pages 1-26.
    3. Bellou, Andriana & Kaymak, Barış, 2012. "Wages, implicit contracts, and the business cycle: Evidence from a European panel," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(6), pages 898-907.
    4. Kenneth Couch & Robert Fairlie, 2010. "Last hired, first fired? black-white unemployment and the business cycle," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 47(1), pages 227-247, February.
    5. Katharine L. Bradbury, 2000. "Rising tide in the labor market: to what degree do expansions benefit the disadvantaged?," New England Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, issue May, pages 3-33.
    6. Kahn, Lisa B., 2010. "The long-term labor market consequences of graduating from college in a bad economy," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 303-316, April.
    7. Johannes F. Schmieder & Till von Wachter, 2010. "Does Wage Persistence Matter for Employment Fluctuations? Evidence from Displaced Workers," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 2(3), pages 1-21, July.
    8. Paul J. Devereux & Robert A. Hart, 2007. "The Spot Market Matters: Evidence On Implicit Contracts From Britain," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 54(5), pages 661-683, November.
    9. Joseph G. Altonji & Lisa B. Kahn & Jamin D. Speer, 2016. "Cashier or Consultant? Entry Labor Market Conditions, Field of Study, and Career Success," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 34(S1), pages 361-401.
    10. Misty Heggeness, 2020. "Why Is Mommy So Stressed? Estimating the Immediate Impact of the COVID-19 Shock on Parental Attachment to the Labor Market and the Double Bind of Mothers," Opportunity and Inclusive Growth Institute Working Papers 33, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    11. Ayako Kondo, 2015. "Differential effects of graduating during a recession across gender and race," IZA Journal of Labor Economics, Springer;Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit GmbH (IZA), vol. 4(1), pages 1-24, December.
    12. Kahn, Shulamit, 1997. "Evidence of Nominal Wage Stickiness from Microdata," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(5), pages 993-1008, December.
    13. Jeff Biddle & Daniel Hamermesh, 2013. "Wage discrimination over the business cycle," IZA Journal of Labor Policy, Springer;Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit GmbH (IZA), vol. 2(1), pages 1-19, December.
    14. Julie L. Hotchkiss & John C. Robertson, 2012. "Asymmetric labour force participation decisions," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(16), pages 2065-2073, June.
    15. Hilary Hoynes & Douglas L. Miller & Jessamyn Schaller, 2012. "Who Suffers during Recessions?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 26(3), pages 27-48, Summer.
    16. Misty L. Heggeness, 2020. "Estimating the immediate impact of the COVID-19 shock on parental attachment to the labor market and the double bind of mothers," Review of Economics of the Household, Springer, vol. 18(4), pages 1053-1078, December.
    17. Hotchkiss, Julie L., 1991. "A time series analysis of disaggregate U.S. unemployment," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 701-711.
    18. Patrick Bayer & Kerwin Kofi Charles, 2018. "Divergent Paths: A New Perspective on Earnings Differences Between Black and White Men Since 1940," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 133(3), pages 1459-1501.
    19. Robert E. Hall, 1970. "Why Is the Unemployment Rate So High at Full Employment?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 1(3), pages 369-410.
    20. Maclean, Johanna Catherine & Hill, Terrence D., 2015. "Leaving school in an economic downturn and self-esteem across early and middle adulthood," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 1-12.
    21. Arellano, Manuel, 2003. "Panel Data Econometrics," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199245291, Decembrie.
    22. David Neumark, 2002. "Youth Labor Markets In The United States: Shopping Around Vs. Staying Put," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 84(3), pages 462-482, August.
    23. George A. Akerlof & Andrew K. Rose & Janet L. Yellen, 1988. "Job Switching and Job Satisfaction in the U.S. Labor Market," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 19(2), pages 495-594.
    24. Tomaz Cajner & Tyler Radler & David Ratner & Ivan Vidangos, 2017. "Racial Gaps in Labor Market Outcomes in the Last Four Decades and over the Business Cycle," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2017-071, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    25. Philip N. Jefferson, 2005. "Does Monetary Policy Affect Relative Educational Unemployment Rates?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(2), pages 76-82, May.
    26. A. W. Phillips, 1958. "The Relation Between Unemployment and the Rate of Change of Money Wage Rates in the United Kingdom, 1861–1957," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 25(100), pages 283-299, November.
    27. Paul Oyer, 2006. "Initial Labor Market Conditions and Long-Term Outcomes for Economists," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 20(3), pages 143-160, Summer.
    28. Philip Oreopoulos & Till von Wachter & Andrew Heisz, 2012. "The Short- and Long-Term Career Effects of Graduating in a Recession," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 4(1), pages 1-29, January.
    29. Liu, Kai & Salvanes, Kjell G. & Sørensen, Erik Ø., 2016. "Good skills in bad times: Cyclical skill mismatch and the long-term effects of graduating in a recession," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 3-17.
    30. Pedro S. Martins & Gary Solon & Jonathan P. Thomas, 2012. "Measuring What Employers Do about Entry Wages over the Business Cycle: A New Approach," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 4(4), pages 36-55, October.
    31. Harry J. Holzer & Steven Raphael & Michael A. Stoll, 2006. "Employers in the Boom: How Did the Hiring of Less-Skilled Workers Change during the 1990s?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 88(2), pages 283-299, May.
    32. Maclean, Johanna Catherine, 2013. "The health effects of leaving school in a bad economy," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(5), pages 951-964.
    33. Anabela Carneiro & Paulo Guimarães & Pedro Portugal, 2012. "Real Wages and the Business Cycle: Accounting for Worker, Firm, and Job Title Heterogeneity," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 4(2), pages 133-152, April.
    34. Robert L. Boyd, 2002. "A “Migration of Despair”: Unemployment, the Search for Work, and Migration to Farms During the Great Depression," Social Science Quarterly, Southwestern Social Science Association, vol. 83(2), pages 554-567, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Kalee Burns & Julie L. Hotchkiss, 2019. "Migration Constraints and Disparate Responses to Changing Job Opportunities," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2019-1, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    2. Stephanie R. Aaronson & Mary C. Daly & William L. Wascher & David W. Wilcox, 2019. "Okun Revisited: Who Benefits Most from a Strong Economy?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 50(1 (Spring), pages 333-404.
    3. Bruce Fallick & Pawel Krolikowski, 2022. "Excess Persistence in Employment of Disadvantaged Workers," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 18(4), pages 1-52, October.
    4. Brand, Claus & Obstbaum, Meri & Coenen, Günter & Sondermann, David & Lydon, Reamonn & Ajevskis, Viktors & Hammermann, Felix & Angino, Siria & Hernborg, Nils & Basso, Henrique & Hertweck, Matthias & Bi, 2021. "Employment and the conduct of monetary policy in the euro area," Occasional Paper Series 275, European Central Bank.
    5. repec:fip:a00001:90108 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Didem Tuzemen & Deepak Venkatasubramanian, 2023. "A Strong Labor Market Has Narrowed Gaps in Participation and Employment between Black and White Non-College Men," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, vol. 0(no.1), pages 1-16, November.
    7. Laura Feiveson & Nils M. Gornemann & Julie L. Hotchkiss & Karel Mertens & Jae W. Sim, 2020. "Distributional Considerations for Monetary Policy Strategy," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2020-073, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    8. Mr. John C Bluedorn & Mr. Daniel Leigh, 2019. "Hysteresis in Labor Markets? Evidence from Professional Long-Term Forecasts," IMF Working Papers 2019/114, International Monetary Fund.
    9. repec:fip:a00001:88147 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Tomaz Cajner & John Coglianese & Joshua Montes, 2021. "The Long-Lived Cyclicality of the Labor Force Participation Rate," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2021-047, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Johanna Catherine Maclean & Reginald Covington & Asia Sikora Kessler, 2016. "Labor Market Conditions At School-Leaving: Long-Run Effects On Marriage And Fertility," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 34(1), pages 63-88, January.
    2. Antwi, Yaa Akosa & Maclean, J. Catherine, 2017. "State Health Insurance Mandates and Labor Market Outcomes: New Evidence on Old Questions," IZA Discussion Papers 10578, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    3. Till von Wachter, 2020. "The Persistent Effects of Initial Labor Market Conditions for Young Adults and Their Sources," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 34(4), pages 168-194, Fall.
    4. Hannes Schwandt & Till von Wachter, 2019. "Unlucky Cohorts: Estimating the Long-Term Effects of Entering the Labor Market in a Recession in Large Cross-Sectional Data Sets," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 37(S1), pages 161-198.
    5. Maclean Johanna Catherine & Hill Terrence D., 2017. "Economic Conditions at School Leaving and Sleep Patterns Across the Life Course," The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 17(2), pages 1-37, April.
    6. Berge, Wiljan van den, 2018. "Bad start, bad match? The early career effects of graduating in a recession for vocational and academic graduates," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 75-96.
    7. Cockx, Bart & Ghirelli, Corinna, 2016. "Scars of recessions in a rigid labor market," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 162-176.
    8. Maclean, Johanna Catherine & Hill, Terrence D., 2015. "Leaving school in an economic downturn and self-esteem across early and middle adulthood," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 1-12.
    9. Haaland, Venke Furre, 2013. "The Lost Generation: Effects of Youth Labor Market Opportunities on Long-Term Labor Market Outcomes," UiS Working Papers in Economics and Finance 2013/8, University of Stavanger.
    10. Del Bono, Emilia & Morando, Greta, 2021. "For Some, Luck Matters More: The Impact of the Great Recession on the Early Careers of Graduates from Different Socio-Economic Backgrounds," IZA Discussion Papers 14540, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    11. Stephanie R. Aaronson & Mary C. Daly & William L. Wascher & David W. Wilcox, 2019. "Okun Revisited: Who Benefits Most from a Strong Economy?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 50(1 (Spring), pages 333-404.
    12. Beatrice Brunner & Andreas Kuhn, 2014. "The impact of labor market entry conditions on initial job assignment and wages," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 27(3), pages 705-738, July.
    13. Venke Furre Haaland, 2016. "The lost generation: Effects of youth labor market opportunities on long-term labor market outcomes," Discussion Papers 835, Statistics Norway, Research Department.
    14. Dai, Mi & Huang, Wei & Zhang, Yifan, 2020. "Persistent effects of initial labor market conditions: The case of China's tariff liberalization after WTO accession," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 178(C), pages 566-581.
    15. Maclean, Johanna Catherine & Webber, Douglas, 2022. "Government regulation and wages: Evidence from continuing coverage mandates," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    16. Fraser Summerfield & Ioannis Theodossiou, 2017. "The Effects Of Macroeconomic Conditions At Graduation On Overeducation," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 55(3), pages 1370-1387, July.
    17. Wiljan van den Berge & Arne Brouwers, 2017. "A lost generation? The early career effects of graduating during a recession," CPB Discussion Paper 356, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    18. Wiljan van den Berge & Arne Brouwers, 2017. "A lost generation? The early career effects of graduating during a recession," CPB Discussion Paper 356.rdf, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    19. Daiji Kawaguchi & Tetsushi Murao, 2014. "Labor‐Market Institutions and Long‐Term Effects of Youth Unemployment," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 46(S2), pages 95-116, October.
    20. Johanna Maclean, 2014. "Does leaving school in an economic downturn impact access to employer-sponsored health insurance?," IZA Journal of Labor Policy, Springer;Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit GmbH (IZA), vol. 3(1), pages 1-27, December.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E60 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • J64 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search
    • J31 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs - - - Wage Level and Structure; Wage Differentials

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ijc:ijcjou:y:2022:q:2:a:5. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Bank for International Settlements (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.ijcb.org/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.