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Last hired, first fired? black-white unemployment and the business cycle

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  • Kenneth Couch

    ()

  • Robert Fairlie

    ()

Abstract

Past studies have tested the claim that blacks are the last hired during periods of economic growth and the first fired in recessions by examining the movement of relative unemployment rates over the business cycle. Any conclusion drawn from this type of analysis must be viewed as tentative because the cyclical movements in the underlying transitions into and out of unemployment are not examined. Using Current Population Survey data matched across adjacent months from 1989 to 2004, this paper examines labor market transitions for prime age males to test this hypothesis. Considerable evidence is presented that blacks are the first fired as the business cycle weakens. However, no evidence is found that blacks are the last hired. Instead, blacks are initially hired from the ranks of the unemployed early in the business cycle and later are drawn from non-participation. Narrowing of the racial unemployment gap near the peak of the business cycle is driven by a reduction in the rate of job loss for blacks rather than increases in hiring. There is also evidence that residual differences in the racial unemployment gap vary systematically over the business cycle in a manner consistent with discrimination being more evident in the economy at times when its cost is lower.

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File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1353/dem.0.0086
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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Springer in its journal Demography.

Volume (Year): 47 (2010)
Issue (Month): 1 (February)
Pages: 227-247

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Handle: RePEc:spr:demogr:v:47:y:2010:i:1:p:227-247

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Web page: http://www.springer.com/economics/journal/13524

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References

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  1. M. Badgett, 1994. "Rising black unemployment: Changes in job stability or in employability?," The Review of Black Political Economy, Springer, vol. 22(3), pages 55-75, March.
  2. Finis Welch, 2003. "Catching Up: Wages of Black Men," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(2), pages 320-325, May.
  3. John Haltiwanger & Steven J. Davis, 1999. "On the Driving Forces behind Cyclical Movements in Employment and Job Reallocation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(5), pages 1234-1258, December.
  4. Fairlie, Robert W & Sundstrom, William A, 1997. "The Racial Unemployment Gap in Long-Run Perspective," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(2), pages 306-10, May.
  5. Kim B. Clark & Lawrence H. Summers, 1981. "Demographic Differences in Cyclical Employment Variation," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 16(1), pages 61-79.
  6. Harry J. Holzer & Paul Offner, 2001. "Trends in Employment Outcomes of Young Black Men, 1979-2000," JCPR Working Papers 245, Northwestern University/University of Chicago Joint Center for Poverty Research.
  7. Davis, Steven J & Haltiwanger, John C, 1992. "Gross Job Creation, Gross Job Destruction, and Employment Reallocation," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 107(3), pages 819-63, August.
  8. Lynch, Lisa M, 1989. "The Youth Labor Market in the Eighties: Determinants of Re-employment Probabilities for Young Men and Women," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 71(1), pages 37-45, February.
  9. Ralph E. Smith & Jean E Vanski & Charles C. Holt, 1974. "Recession and the Employment of Demographic Groups," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 5(3), pages 737-760.
  10. Hilary Hoynes, 1999. "The Employment, Earnings, and Income of Less Skilled Workers Over the Business Cycle," NBER Working Papers 7188, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Kenneth A. Couch & Mary C. Daly, 2004. "The Improving Relative Status of Black Men," Working papers 2004-12, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics.
  12. Bound, John & Freeman, Richard B, 1992. "What Went Wrong? The Erosion of Relative Earnings and Employment among Young Black Men in the 1980s," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 107(1), pages 201-32, February.
  13. Welch, Finis, 1990. "The Employment of Black Men," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 8(1), pages S26-74, January.
  14. Baker, Michael, 1992. "Unemployment Duration: Compositional Effects and Cyclical Variability," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(1), pages 313-21, March.
  15. Katharine G. Abraham & Robert Shimer, 2001. "Changes in Unemployment Duration and Labor Force Attachment," NBER Working Papers 8513, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  16. Black, Dan A, 1995. "Discrimination in an Equilibrium Search Model," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 13(2), pages 309-33, April.
  17. Lawrence H. Summers, 1981. "Measuring Unemployment," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 12(2), pages 609-620.
  18. Harry J. Holzer, 1986. "Reservation Wages and Their Labor Market Effects for Black and White Male Youth," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 21(2), pages 157-177.
  19. Robert W. Fairlie & William A. Sundstrom, 1999. "The Emergence, persistence, and recent widening of the racial unemployment gap," Industrial and Labor Relations Review, ILR Review, Cornell University, ILR School, vol. 52(2), pages 252-270, January.
  20. Kenneth Couch, 2002. "Black-White Wage Inequality in the 1990s: a Decade of Progress," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 40(1), pages 31-41, January.
  21. Richard B. Freeman & William M. Rodgers III, 1999. "Area Economic Conditions and the Labor Market Outcomes of Young Men in the 1990s Expansion," NBER Working Papers 7073, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  22. Brigitte C. Madrian & Lars John Lefgren, 1999. "A Note on Longitudinally Matching Current Population Survey (CPS) Respondents," NBER Technical Working Papers 0247, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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Cited by:
  1. Wido Geis, 2010. "High Unemployment in Germany: Why do Foreigners Suffer Most?," Ifo Working Paper Series Ifo Working Paper Nr. 90, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
  2. Maré, David C & Fabling, Richard, 2013. "The incidence and persistence of cyclical job loss in New Zealand," Working Papers 13_08, Motu Economic and Public Policy Research.
  3. Donald Freeman, 2011. "On (not) Closing the Gaps: The Evolution of National and Regional Unemployment Rates by Race and Ethnicity," Working Papers 1101, Sam Houston State University, Department of Economics and International Business.
  4. Julie L. Hotchkiss & M. Melinda Pitts, 2007. "Evidence of demand factors in the determination of the labor market intermittency penalty," Working Paper 2007-16, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.

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