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Rising tide in the labor market: to what degree do expansions benefit the disadvantaged?

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  • Katharine L. Bradbury

Abstract

The current U.S. economic expansion is unusually long and strong. Has it served as a \"rising tide\" to float all boats in the labor market benefiting everyone? To what degree are groups that are typically disadvantaged in the labor market-blacks, women, teens, the less educated-participating in the current prosperity? To investigate the effects of economic expansion (or recession) on various labor market groups, this article presents data that describe the patterns of labor force status by race, sex, education, and age (teens) during recent decades. ; The author finds that while virtually all groups are seeing improvements in labor market outcomes in the current expansion, the gaps between disadvantaged groups and the rest of the economy are shrinking more in some cases than in others. Moreover, even the strong and long expansion of the 1990s has not reduced the gaps to zero. She finds that the analogy with the tide breaks down when one asks whether a strong economy raises all boats to the same level; disadvantaged groups still have above-average unemployment (and black men have below-average employment rates) in the best of times. The ongoing problem is that the status of being left out or slower-gaining remains disproportionately concentrated among blacks and teens, where the gaps remain sizable.

Suggested Citation

  • Katharine L. Bradbury, 2000. "Rising tide in the labor market: to what degree do expansions benefit the disadvantaged?," New England Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, issue May, pages 3-33.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedbne:y:2000:i:may:p:3-33
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    2. Julie L. Hotchkiss & Robert E. Moore, 2022. "Some Like it Hot: Assessing Longer-Term Labor Market Benefits from a High-Pressure Economy," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 18(2), pages 193-243, June.
    3. Kalee Burns & Julie L. Hotchkiss, 2019. "Migration Constraints and Disparate Responses to Changing Job Opportunities," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2019-1, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    4. Stephanie R. Aaronson & Mary C. Daly & William L. Wascher & David W. Wilcox, 2019. "Okun Revisited: Who Benefits Most from a Strong Economy?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 50(1 (Spring), pages 333-404.
    5. Wido Geis, 2010. "High Unemployment in Germany: Why do Foreigners Suffer Most?," ifo Working Paper Series 90, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    6. repec:fip:a00001:88147 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Kenneth Couch & Robert Fairlie, 2010. "Last hired, first fired? black-white unemployment and the business cycle," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 47(1), pages 227-247, February.
    8. Xu, Xin, 2013. "The business cycle and health behaviors," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 126-136.
    9. Riccardo DiCecio & Kristie M. Engemann & Michael T. Owyang & Christopher H. Wheeler, 2008. "Changing trends in the labor force: a survey," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 90(Jan), pages 47-62.
    10. Armagan Gezici & Ozge Ozay, 2020. "An Intersectional Analysis of COVID-19 Unemployment," Journal of Economics, Race, and Policy, Springer, vol. 3(4), pages 270-281, December.
    11. Matias Fontenla & Fidel Gonzalez & Troy Quast, 2009. "Are Recessions Good for Everyone's Health? The Association Between Mortality and the Business Cycle by Race in the U.S," Working Papers 0902, Sam Houston State University, Department of Economics and International Business.
    12. Tomaz Cajner & John Coglianese & Joshua Montes, 2021. "The Long-Lived Cyclicality of the Labor Force Participation Rate," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2021-047, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    13. Kalee Burns & Julie L. Hotchkiss, 2023. "The Role of Social Costs in Response to Labor Market Opportunities: Differences across Race," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2023-7, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.

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