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Initial Labor Market Conditions and Long-Term Outcomes for Economists

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Author Info
Paul Oyer

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Abstract

Each year, graduate students entering the academic job market worry that they will suffer due to uncontrollable macroeconomic risk. Given the importance of general human capital and the relative ease of publicly observing productivity in academia, one might expect that long-term labor market outcomes for students graduating in unfavorable climates will resemble long-term outcomes for those graduating in favorable climates. In this paper, I analyze the relationship between macroeconomic conditions at graduation, initial job placement, and long-term outcomes for Ph.D. economists from seven programs. Using macroeconomic conditions as an instrument for initial placement, I show that a quality and type of initial job have a causal effect on long-term job characteristics. I also show that better initial placement increases research productivity, which helps to limit the set of economic models that can explain the effect of initial placement on long-term jobs.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by American Economic Association in its journal Journal of Economic Perspectives.

Volume (Year): 20 (2006)
Issue (Month): 3 (Summer)
Pages: 143-160
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Handle: RePEc:aea:jecper:v:20:y:2006:i:3:p:143-160

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  1. Oyer, Paul, 2007. "Ability and Employer Learning: Evidence from the Economist Labor Market," Research Papers 1961, Stanford University, Graduate School of Business. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Jens Josephson & Joel Shapiro, 2008. "Interviews and Adverse Selection," Economics Working Papers 1093, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Glenn Ellison, 2007. "Is Peer Review in Decline?," NBER Working Papers 13272, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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This page was last updated on 2009-11-16.

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