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Impact of Monetary Policy and Fiscal Policy on Indonesian Stock Market

Author

Listed:
  • Rossanto Dwi HANDOYO

    (Airlangga University, Surabaya, East Java, Indonesia)

  • Mansor JUSOH

    (National University of Malaysia, Bangi Selangor, Malaysia)

  • Mohd. Azlan SHAH ZAIDI

    (National University of Malaysia, Bangi Selangor, Malaysia)

Abstract

This paper attempts to investigate the effect of fiscal and monetary policy on Indonesian Stock price as well as main sectors stock price such as agricultural, mining, manufacture, and financial sector indexes. We consider the world oil price as a foreign variable that will influence domestic economy as in regular small open economy model. In this paper, we employ the Monte Carlo algorithm to Near-SVAR models (If some of the VAR equations have regressors not included in the others). We find that there is a positive stock price response to monetary policy shock both aggregated and sectoral stock price. In term of interaction between fiscal policy shock and stock market, we find that all sectors respond negative relationship. From this empirical finding, fiscal policy crowd out private sector activity in market, thus, its effect will be impotent in economy. We also provide the evidence that not only both policies are able to influence the stock price individually, but also the interaction between monetary and fiscal policy is important in explaining stock market performance.

Suggested Citation

  • Rossanto Dwi HANDOYO & Mansor JUSOH & Mohd. Azlan SHAH ZAIDI, 2015. "Impact of Monetary Policy and Fiscal Policy on Indonesian Stock Market," Expert Journal of Economics, Sprint Investify, vol. 3(2), pages 113-126.
    • Handle: RePEc:exp:econcs:v:3:y:2015:i:2:p:113-126
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    monetary policy; fiscal policy; stock price; monte carlo svar model; impulses response;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E63 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy; Stabilization; Treasury Policy
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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