IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/ecmode/v90y2020icp406-416.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Fiscal policy and stock market efficiency: An ARDL Bounds Testing approach

Author

Listed:
  • Stoian, Andreea
  • Iorgulescu, Filip

Abstract

The aim of this paper is to investigate the semi-strong market efficiency hypothesis with respect to fiscal policy information, in the context of the Bucharest Stock Exchange. Taking into account that macroeconomic data series of emerging countries usually have a limited size and may be plagued by inconsistencies and structural breaks, this paper proposes an ARDL Bounds testing approach for studying the relationship between stock returns and lagged macroeconomic variables. Moreover, this approach allows us to examine both the long and short-term relationship between fiscal policy and stock returns. The results indicate that, in the long run, stock prices fully and efficiently reflect information on past fiscal policy. However, in the short run, the Romanian stock market reacts efficiently only to unexpected fiscal policy news, while anticipated fiscal policy information displays a significant lagged relationship with current stock returns. In addition, the results also showed that monetary policy information is not incorporated efficiently into stock prices, both in the short and the long run, and its impact on stock returns is larger than the one exerted by fiscal policy.

Suggested Citation

  • Stoian, Andreea & Iorgulescu, Filip, 2020. "Fiscal policy and stock market efficiency: An ARDL Bounds Testing approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 406-416.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:90:y:2020:i:c:p:406-416
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2019.12.023
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0264999319304353
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.econmod.2019.12.023?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jansen, Dennis W. & Li, Qi & Wang, Zijun & Yang, Jian, 2008. "Fiscal policy and asset markets: A semiparametric analysis," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 147(1), pages 141-150, November.
    2. Blanchard, Olivier J, 1981. "Output, the Stock Market, and Interest Rates," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(1), pages 132-143, March.
    3. Luca Agnello & Ricardo M. Sousa, 2013. "Fiscal Policy And Asset Prices," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 65(2), pages 154-177, April.
    4. Roubini, Nouriel & Sachs, Jeffrey D., 1989. "Political and economic determinants of budget deficits in the industrial democracies," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 33(5), pages 903-933, May.
    5. Nicolaas Groenewold, 1997. "Share Prices and Macroeconomic Factors," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(9&10), pages 1367-1383.
    6. Grossman, Sanford J & Stiglitz, Joseph E, 1980. "On the Impossibility of Informationally Efficient Markets," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 70(3), pages 393-408, June.
    7. Mr. Sanjeev Gupta & João Tovar Jalles & Mr. Carlos Mulas-Granados & Michela Schena, 2017. "Governments and Promised Fiscal Consolidations: Do They Mean What They Say?," IMF Working Papers 2017/039, International Monetary Fund.
    8. Barro, Robert J, 1977. "Unanticipated Money Growth and Unemployment in the United States," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 67(2), pages 101-115, March.
    9. Tobin, James, 1969. "A General Equilibrium Approach to Monetary Theory," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 1(1), pages 15-29, February.
    10. Bernardin Akitoby & Thomas Stratmann, 2008. "Fiscal Policy and Financial Markets," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 118(533), pages 1971-1985, November.
    11. Eric M. Leeper & Todd B. Walker & Shu‐Chun Susan Yang, 2013. "Fiscal Foresight and Information Flows," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 81(3), pages 1115-1145, May.
    12. M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Richard J. Smith, 2001. "Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 289-326.
    13. Victor Dragotă & Elena Ţilică, 2014. "Market efficiency of the Post Communist East European stock markets," Central European Journal of Operations Research, Springer;Slovak Society for Operations Research;Hungarian Operational Research Society;Czech Society for Operations Research;Österr. Gesellschaft für Operations Research (ÖGOR);Slovenian Society Informatika - Section for Operational Research;Croatian Operational Research Society, vol. 22(2), pages 307-337, June.
    14. Emilia Câmpeanu & Andreea Stoian, 2010. "Fiscal Policy Reaction in the Short Term for Assessing Fiscal Sustainability in the Long Runin Central and Eastern European Countries," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 60(6), pages 501-518, December.
    15. Unro Lee, 1997. "Stock Market and Macroeconomic Policies: New Evidence from Pacific Basin Countries," Multinational Finance Journal, Multinational Finance Journal, vol. 1(4), pages 273-289, December.
    16. Chen, Nai-Fu & Roll, Richard & Ross, Stephen A, 1986. "Economic Forces and the Stock Market," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 59(3), pages 383-403, July.
    17. Eric M. Leeper & Alexander W. Richter & Todd B. Walker, 2012. "Quantitative Effects of Fiscal Foresight," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 4(2), pages 115-144, May.
    18. Nicolaas, Patricia Groenewold Fraser, 1997. "Share Prices and Macroeconomic Factors," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(9‐10), pages 1367-1383, October.
    19. Barro, Robert J, 1978. "Unanticipated Money, Output, and the Price Level in the United States," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 86(4), pages 549-580, August.
    20. Laopodis, Nikiforos T., 2009. "Fiscal policy and stock market efficiency: Evidence for the United States," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 633-650, May.
    21. Park, Sangkyun, 1997. "The Relationship Between Government Financial Condition and Expected Tax Rates Reflected in Municipal Bond Yields," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association, vol. 50(1), pages 23-38, March.
    22. Darrat, Ali F, 1988. "On Fiscal Policy and the Stock Market," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 20(3), pages 353-363, August.
    23. Mr. Manmohan S. Kumar & Mr. Emanuele Baldacci, 2010. "Fiscal Deficits, Public Debt, and Sovereign Bond Yields," IMF Working Papers 2010/184, International Monetary Fund.
    24. Paul De Grauwe & Yuemei Ji, 2012. "Mispricing of Sovereign Risk and Macroeconomic Stability in the Eurozone," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 50(6), pages 866-880, November.
    25. Clemente, Jesus & Montanes, Antonio & Reyes, Marcelo, 1998. "Testing for a unit root in variables with a double change in the mean," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 59(2), pages 175-182, May.
    26. Peter Fortune, 1996. "Do municipal bond yields forecast tax policy?," New England Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, issue Sep, pages 29-48.
    27. Laurent Weill, 2008. "Leverage and Corporate Performance: Does Institutional Environment Matter?," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 30(3), pages 251-265, March.
    28. Emanuele Baldacci & Sanjeev Gupta & Amine Mati, 2011. "Political and Fiscal Risk Determinants of Sovereign Spreads in Emerging Markets," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 15(2), pages 251-263, May.
    29. Pagano, Marco, 1993. "Financial markets and growth: An overview," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 37(2-3), pages 613-622, April.
    30. Ardagna, Silvia, 2009. "Financial Markets’ Behavior Around Episodes of Large Changes in the Fiscal Stance," Scholarly Articles 2579824, Harvard University Department of Economics.
    31. Afonso, António & Sousa, Ricardo M., 2011. "What are the effects of fiscal policy on asset markets?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 1871-1890, July.
    32. Chatziantoniou, Ioannis & Duffy, David & Filis, George, 2013. "Stock market response to monetary and fiscal policy shocks: Multi-country evidence," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 754-769.
    33. Fama, Eugene F, 1970. "Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 25(2), pages 383-417, May.
    34. Cedric L. Mbanga & Ali F. Darrat, 2016. "Fiscal policy and the US stock market," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 47(4), pages 987-1002, November.
    35. Bradley Ewing, 1998. "The impact of federal budget deficits on movements in the stock market: evidence from Australia and France," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 5(10), pages 649-651.
    36. Darrat, Ali F., 1990. "Stock Returns, Money, and Fiscal Deficits," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 25(3), pages 387-398, September.
    37. Ardagna, Silvia, 2009. "Financial markets' behavior around episodes of large changes in the fiscal stance," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 53(1), pages 37-55, January.
    38. Elmendorf, Douglas W. & Reifschneider, David L., 2002. "Short-Run Effects of Fiscal Policy With Forward-Looking Financial Markets," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association;National Tax Journal, vol. 55(3), pages 357-386, September.
    39. Park, Sangkyun, 1997. "The Relationship Between Government Financial Condition and Expected Tax Rates Reflected in Municipal Bond Yields," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association;National Tax Journal, vol. 50(1), pages 23-38, March.
    40. Oxley, Les & McAleer, Michael, 1993. "Econometric Issues in Macroeconomic Models with Generated Regressors," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 7(1), pages 1-40.
    41. Mark J. Flannery & Aris A. Protopapadakis, 2002. "Macroeconomic Factors Do Influence Aggregate Stock Returns," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 15(3), pages 751-782.
    42. Pagan, Adrian, 1984. "Econometric Issues in the Analysis of Regressions with Generated Regressors," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 25(1), pages 221-247, February.
    43. Eric M. Leeper & Alexander W. Richter & Todd B. Walker, 2012. "Corrigendum: Quantitative Effects of Fiscal Foresight," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 4(3), pages 283-283, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Pavel Ciaian & d'Artis Kancs & Miroslava Rajcaniova, 2021. "Interdependencies between Mining Costs, Mining Rewards and Blockchain Security," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 22(1), pages 25-62, May.
    2. Bai, Xiao & Wang, Kuan-Ting & Tran, Trung Kien & Sadiq, Muhammad & Trung, Lam Minh & Khudoykulov, Khurshid, 2022. "Measuring China’s green economic recovery and energy environment sustainability: Econometric analysis of sustainable development goals," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 768-779.
    3. José A. Roldán-Casas & Mª B. García-Moreno García, 2022. "A procedure for testing the hypothesis of weak efficiency in financial markets: a Monte Carlo simulation," Statistical Methods & Applications, Springer;Società Italiana di Statistica, vol. 31(5), pages 1289-1327, December.
    4. Pavel Ciaian & d’Artis Kancs & Miroslava Rajcaniova, 2021. "The economic dependency of bitcoin security," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 53(49), pages 5738-5755, October.
    5. Leonard Fong Litt Lam & Siong Hook Law & W. N. W. Azman-Saini & Normaz Wana Ismail, 2023. "High Technology Trade and the Roles of Absorptive Capabilities in Malaysia," Millennial Asia, , vol. 14(3), pages 315-340, September.
    6. Subhamitra Patra & Gourishankar S. Hiremath, 2022. "An Entropy Approach to Measure the Dynamic Stock Market Efficiency," Journal of Quantitative Economics, Springer;The Indian Econometric Society (TIES), vol. 20(2), pages 337-377, June.
    7. Michael Anthony Adams, 2020. "Fiscal Policy and Stock Market Efficiency in the USA: An ARDL Bounds Testing Approach," Journal of Accounting, Business and Finance Research, Scientific Publishing Institute, vol. 9(2), pages 73-81.
    8. S. Amir Tabibian & Zhaoyong Zhang & Abdollah Ah Mand, 2021. "Stock Split Rule Changes and Stock Liquidity: Evidence from Bursa Malaysia," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(9), pages 1-15, August.
    9. Nenavath, Sreenu, 2022. "Impact of fintech and green finance on environmental quality protection in India: By applying the semi-parametric difference-in-differences (SDID)," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 193(C), pages 913-919.
    10. Aditya Prasad Sahoo, 2021. "Is the Configuration of Indian Stock Market Weakly Efficient?," ComFin Research, Shanlax Journals, vol. 9(3), pages 1-6, July.
    11. Dong, Chunlong & Wu, Hao & Zhou, Jianwen & Lin, Huifang & Chang, Lei, 2023. "Role of renewable energy investment and geopolitical risk in green finance development: Empirical evidence from BRICS countries," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 207(C), pages 234-241.
    12. Konstantinos Tsibikis & Jan Donders, 2020. "Fiscal Policy and Stock Market Efficiency in the Netherlands: An ARDL Bounds Testing Approach," Asian Journal of Empirical Research, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 10(9), pages 204-214, September.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Stoian, Andreea & Iorgulescu, Filip, 2016. "Do Investors Listen to Fiscal Policy? – Study case Bucharest Stock Exchange," MPRA Paper 72458, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Pasquale Foresti & Oreste Napolitano, 2016. "On the Stock Markets’ Reactions to Taxation and Public Expenditure," LEQS – LSE 'Europe in Question' Discussion Paper Series 115, European Institute, LSE.
    3. Chatziantoniou, Ioannis & Duffy, David & Filis, George, 2013. "Stock market response to monetary and fiscal policy shocks: Multi-country evidence," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 754-769.
    4. Anthony M. Diercks & William Waller, 2017. "Taxes and the Fed : Theory and Evidence from Equities," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2017-104, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    5. Eichler, Stefan & Plaga, Timo, 2020. "The economic record of the government and sovereign bond and stock returns around national elections," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 118(C).
    6. Chiwei Su & Yiru Liu & Chang Liu & Ran Tao, 2022. "The Impact of Medical and Health Fiscal Expenditures on Pharmaceutical Industry Stock Index in China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(18), pages 1-14, September.
    7. Michael Anthony Adams, 2020. "Fiscal Policy and Stock Market Efficiency in the USA: An ARDL Bounds Testing Approach," Journal of Accounting, Business and Finance Research, Scientific Publishing Institute, vol. 9(2), pages 73-81.
    8. Luca Agnello & Davide Furceri & Ricardo M. Sousa, 2011. "Fiscal Policy Discretion, Private Spending, and Crisis Episodes," NIPE Working Papers 31/2011, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
    9. Luca Agnello & Davide Furceri & Ricardo Sousa, 2013. "Discretionary Government Consumption, Private Domestic Demand, and Crisis Episodes," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 24(1), pages 79-100, February.
    10. Mumtaz, Haroon & Theodoridis, Konstantinos, 2020. "Fiscal policy shocks and stock prices in the United States," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    11. Laopodis, Nikiforos T., 2009. "Fiscal policy and stock market efficiency: Evidence for the United States," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 633-650, May.
    12. Taha, Roshaiza & Colombage, Sisira R.N. & Maslyuk, Svetlana & Nanthakumar, Loganathan, 2013. "Does financial system activity affect tax revenue in Malaysia? Bounds testing and causality approach," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 147-157.
    13. Agnello, Luca & Castro, Vítor & Sousa, Ricardo M., 2012. "How does fiscal policy react to wealth composition and asset prices?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 874-890.
    14. Dybowski, T. Philipp, 2015. "Tracing the Role of Foresight on the Effects of U.S. Tax Policy: Evidence from a Time-Varying SVAR," VfS Annual Conference 2015 (Muenster): Economic Development - Theory and Policy 113049, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    15. BUI, Duy-Tung & LLORCA, Matthieu & BUI, Thi Mai Hoai, 2018. "Dynamics between stock market movements and fiscal policy: Empirical evidence from emerging Asian economies," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 65-74.
    16. Agnello, Luca & Dufrénot, Gilles & Sousa, Ricardo M., 2015. "Nonlinear effects of asset prices on fiscal policy: Evidence from the UK, Italy and Spain," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 358-362.
    17. Benjamin Born & Gernot J. Müller & Johannes Pfeifer, 2020. "Does Austerity Pay Off?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 102(2), pages 323-338, May.
    18. Gabriela-Victoria Anghelache & Stela Jakova & Dumitru-Cristian Oanea, 2016. "Fiscal Policy and Capital Market Performance: Evidence from EU Countries from Central and Eastern Europe," International Journal of Academic Research in Accounting, Finance and Management Sciences, Human Resource Management Academic Research Society, International Journal of Academic Research in Accounting, Finance and Management Sciences, vol. 6(2), pages 34-43, April.
    19. Tomasz Piotr Wisniewski & Peter M. Jackson, 2021. "Government debt expansion and stock returns," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(4), pages 5017-5030, October.
    20. Rossanto Dwi HANDOYO & Mansor JUSOH & Mohd. Azlan SHAH ZAIDI, 2015. "Impact of Monetary Policy and Fiscal Policy on Indonesian Stock Market," Expert Journal of Economics, Sprint Investify, vol. 3(2), pages 113-126.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Fiscal policy; Stock returns; Efficient market hypothesis; ARDL Bounds Testing;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • H6 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:90:y:2020:i:c:p:406-416. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/30411 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.