Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this article or follow this journal

Fiscal Policy And Asset Prices

Contents:

Author Info

  • Luca Agnello
  • Ricardo M. Sousa

Abstract

We assess the role played by fiscal policy in explaining the dynamics of asset markets. Using a panel of ten industrialized countries, we show that a positive fiscal shock has a negative impact in both stock and housing prices. However, while stock prices immediately adjust to the shock and the effect of fiscal policy is temporary, housing prices gradually and persistently fall. As a result, the attempts of fiscal policy to mitigate stock price developments may severely de-stabilize housing markets. The empirical findings also point to: (i) a contractionary effect of fiscal policy on output in line with the existence of crowding-out effects; (ii) a weakening of the effectiveness of fiscal policy in recent times; (iii) significant fiscal multiplier effects in the context of severe housing busts; and (iv) an increase of the sensitivity of asset prices to fiscal policy shocks following the process of financial deregulation and mortgage liberalization. Finally, the evidence suggests that changes in equity prices may help governments towards consolidation of public finances.

(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1111/j.0307-3378.2011.00420.x
Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Wiley Blackwell in its journal Bulletin of Economic Research.

Volume (Year): 65 (2013)
Issue (Month): 2 (04)
Pages: 154-177

as in new window
Handle: RePEc:bla:buecrs:v:65:y:2013:i:2:p:154-177

Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=0307-3378

Order Information:
Web: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/subs.asp?ref=0307-3378

Related research

Keywords:

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Castro, Vítor, 2010. "The duration of economic expansions and recessions: More than duration dependence," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 347-365, March.
  2. Schuknecht, Ludger & von Hagen, Jürgen & Wolswijk, Guido, 2009. "Government risk premiums in the bond market: EMU and Canada," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 371-384, September.
  3. William T. Gavin & Athena T. Theodorou, 2004. "A common model approach to macroeconomics: using panel data to reduce sampling error," Working Papers 2003-045, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  4. Love, Inessa & Zicchino, Lea, 2006. "Financial development and dynamic investment behavior: Evidence from panel VAR," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 46(2), pages 190-210, May.
  5. Vítor Castro, 2008. "Are Central Banks following a linear or nonlinear (augmented) Taylor rule?," NIPE Working Papers 19/2008, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
  6. Agnello, Luca & Schuknecht, Ludger, 2009. "Booms and busts in housing markets: determinants and implications," Working Paper Series 1071, European Central Bank.
  7. Andrew Mountford & Harald Uhlig, 2005. "What are the Effects of Fiscal Policy Shocks?," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2005-039, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
  8. Richard Blundell & Steve Bond, 1995. "Initial conditions and moment restrictions in dynamic panel data models," IFS Working Papers W95/17, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
  9. Kiani, Khurshid M., 2009. "Federal budget deficits and long-term interest rates in USA," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(1), pages 74-84, February.
  10. Ricardo M. Sousa, 2005. "Consumption, (Dis) Aggregate Wealth and Asset Returns," NIPE Working Papers 9/2005, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
  11. Aoki, Kosuke & James Proudman & Gertjan Vlieghe, 2003. "House prices, consumption, and monetary policy: a financial accelerator approach," Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2003 7, Royal Economic Society.
  12. Andrew Hallett & Reinhard Neck & Christian Richter, 2008. "Policy issues in the Eurozone: cyclic convergence and fiscal sustainability," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 5(1), pages 1-4, July.
  13. Arin, K. Peren & Mamun, Abdullah & Purushothman, Nanda, 2009. "The effects of tax policy on financial markets: G3 evidence," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 33-46, January.
  14. Wongswan, Jon, 2009. "The response of global equity indexes to U.S. monetary policy announcements," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 344-365, March.
  15. Sushanta Mallick & Mohammed Mohsin, 2010. "On the real effects of inflation in open economies: theory and empirics," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 39(3), pages 643-673, December.
  16. Granville, Brigitte & Mallick, Sushanta, 2009. "Monetary and financial stability in the euro area: Pro-cyclicality versus trade-off," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 662-674, October.
  17. Ricardo M. Sousa, 2010. "The consumption-wealth ratio and asset returns: The Euro Area, the UK and the US," NIPE Working Papers 9/2010, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
  18. Cebula, Richard J. & Rhodd, Rupert G., 1993. "A note on budget deficits, debt service payments, and interest rates," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 439-445.
  19. Sushanta K. Mallick & Mohammed Mohsin, 2007. "Monetary policy in high inflation open economies: evidence from Israel and Turkey," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 12(4), pages 405-415.
  20. Sousa, Ricardo M., 2010. "Housing wealth, financial wealth, money demand and policy rule: Evidence from the euro area," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 88-105, March.
  21. Rafiq, M.S. & Mallick, S.K., 2008. "The effect of monetary policy on output in EMU3: A sign restriction approach," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 1756-1791, December.
  22. Bradley, John & Whelan, Karl, 1997. "The Irish expansionary fiscal contraction: A tale from one small European economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 175-201, April.
  23. Hallett, Andrew Hughes & Lewis, John, 2008. "European Fiscal Discipline Before And After Emu: Crash Diet Or Permanent Weight Loss?," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 12(03), pages 404-424, June.
  24. van Aarle, Bas & Garretsen, Harry & Gobbin, Niko, 2003. "Monetary and fiscal policy transmission in the Euro-area: evidence from a structural VAR analysis," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 55(5-6), pages 609-638.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
  1. Goodness C. Aye & Rangan Gupta & Mampho P. Modise, 2012. "Do Stock Prices Impact Consumption and Interest Rate in South Africa? Evidence from a Time-Varying Vector Autoregressive Model," Working Papers 201224, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
  2. Luca Agnello & Gilles Dufrénot & Ricardo M. Sousa, 2012. "Adjusting the U.S. Fiscal Policy for Asset Prices: Evidence from a TVP-MS Framework," NIPE Working Papers 20/2012, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
  3. Athanasios O. Tagkalakis, 2013. "The output effects of systematic and non-systematic fiscal policy changes in Greece," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 33(3), pages 1816-1831.
  4. Agnello, L. & Furceri, D. & R.M, Sousa., 2011. "Fiscal Policy Discretion, Private Spending, and Crisis Episodes," Working papers 354, Banque de France.
  5. Luca Agnello & Vítor Castro & Ricardo M. Sousa, 2011. "How Does Fiscal Policy React to Wealth Composition and Asset Prices?," NIPE Working Papers 24/2011, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
  6. Castroa, Vitor & Kubota, Megumi, 2013. "Duration dependence and change-points in the likelihood of credit booms ending," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6475, The World Bank.
  7. Luca Agnello & Vitor Castro & Ricardo M. Sousa, 2013. "Are There Change-Points in the Likelihood of a Fiscal Consolidation Ending?," GEMF Working Papers 2013-06, GEMF - Faculdade de Economia, Universidade de Coimbra.

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:buecrs:v:65:y:2013:i:2:p:154-177. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Wiley-Blackwell Digital Licensing) or (Christopher F. Baum).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.