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Fiscal policy and asset markets: A semiparametric analysis

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  • Jansen, Dennis W.
  • Li, Qi
  • Wang, Zijun
  • Yang, Jian

Abstract

Using a flexible semiparametric varying coefficient model specification, this paper examines the role of fiscal policy on the US asset markets (stocks, corporate and treasury bonds). We consider two possible roles of fiscal deficits (or surpluses): as a separate direct information variable and as a (indirect) conditioning information variable indicating binding constraints on monetary policy actions. The results show that the impact of monetary policy on the stock market varies, depending on fiscal expansion or contraction. The impact of fiscal policy on corporate and treasury bond yields follow similar patterns as in the equity market. The results are consistent with the notion of strong interdependence between monetary and fiscal policies.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Econometrics.

Volume (Year): 147 (2008)
Issue (Month): 1 (November)
Pages: 141-150

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Handle: RePEc:eee:econom:v:147:y:2008:i:1:p:141-150

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jeconom

Related research

Keywords: Fiscal deficits Monetary policy Stock market Semiparametric estimation;

References

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Muhammad Ali Nasir & Alaa M. Soliman, 2014. "Aspects of Macroeconomic Policy Combinations and Their Effects on Financial Markets," Economic Issues Journal Articles, Economic Issues, vol. 19(1), pages 95-118, March.
  2. Bai, Zhidong & Li, Hua & Wong, Wing-Keung, 2013. "The best estimation for high-dimensional Markowitz mean-variance optimization," MPRA Paper 43862, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  3. Luca Agnello & Vítor Castro & Ricardo M. Sousa, 2012. "Are there change-points in the likelihood of a fiscal consolidation ending?," NIPE Working Papers 18/2012, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
  4. Milan Nedeljkovic & Branko Urosevic, 2011. "Determinants of the Dinar-Euro Nominal Exchange Rate," Working papers 18, National Bank of Serbia.
  5. Luca Agnello & Davide Furceri & Ricardo M. Sousa, 2011. "Fiscal Policy Discretion, Private Spending, and Crisis Episodes," NIPE Working Papers 31/2011, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
  6. Nedeljković, Milan & Urošević, Branko, 2012. "Determinants of the Dinar-Euro Nominal Exchange Rate," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(3), pages 121-141, September.
  7. Leung, Pui-Lam & Ng, Hon-Yip & Wong, Wing-Keung, 2012. "An improved estimation to make Markowitz’s portfolio optimization theory users friendly and estimation accurate with application on the US stock market investment," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 222(1), pages 85-95.
  8. Dandan Liu & Rui Li & Zijun Wang, 2011. "Testing for structural breaks in panel varying coefficient models: with an application to OECD health expenditure," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 40(1), pages 95-118, February.
  9. Luca Agnello & Davide Furceri & Ricardo Sousa, 2013. "Discretionary Government Consumption, Private Domestic Demand, and Crisis Episodes," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 24(1), pages 79-100, February.
  10. Qi Gao & Jingping Gu & Paula Hernandez-Verme, 2012. "A Semiparametric Time Trend Varying Coefficients Model: With An Application to Evaluate Credit Rationing in U.S. Credit Market," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 13(1), pages 189-210, May.
  11. Gu, Jingping & Li, Qi & Yang, Jian, 2013. "Fiscal deficits and mean reversion in real exchange rates," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 118(2), pages 300-303.

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