IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/tefoso/v152y2020ics0040162517305383.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

“Forecasting and analysing the characteristics of 3G and 4G mobile broadband diffusion in India: A comparative evaluation of Bass, Norton-Bass, Gompertz, and logistic growth models”

Author

Listed:
  • Jha, Ashutosh
  • Saha, Debashis

Abstract

An empirical understanding of countrywide diffusion of third (3G) or/and fourth (4G) generations of Mobile Broadband Services (MBSs) has proven implications for both business and policy of the country. However, extant literature lacks in explanation for the diffusion and forecast of these services in India. We address this gap by analyzing both individual and multigenerational diffusions of 3G and 4G services in India, using Bass, Gompertz, Logistic and Norton-Bass models that utilize a mix of linear and non-linear regression techniques. Additionally, we evaluate the influence of several exogenous variables on the diffusion of those MBSs in India. Our analyses reveal that, firstly in case of diffusion, Bass model estimates are quite sensitive to both 3G and 4G historical data, whereas Gompertz and Logistic models fit well with the same dataset. As expected, Norton-Bass model - encompassing all the successive generations of 2G, 3G and 4G - provides more reliable estimates of the diffusion parameters. Secondly, as far as 3G forecast is concerned, Bass model works better with fixed assumptions of ultimate market potential, whereas Gompertz and Logistic models seem to be more suited for ‘optimistic’ long-range forecasts and ‘conservative’ short-term forecasts, respectively. Our results also show that 4G is diffusing at 6.1 times the speed of 3G diffusion in India, when the total MBS subscription in India is likely to reach 410 million by 2026. Finally, we notice that, among the notable external sources of influence, National Telecom Policy 2012, average revenue per user, and aggregate income variables have significant positive impacts on the diffusion of MBSs in India.

Suggested Citation

  • Jha, Ashutosh & Saha, Debashis, 2020. "“Forecasting and analysing the characteristics of 3G and 4G mobile broadband diffusion in India: A comparative evaluation of Bass, Norton-Bass, Gompertz, and logistic growth models”," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 152(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:tefoso:v:152:y:2020:i:c:s0040162517305383
    DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2019.119885
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0040162517305383
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.techfore.2019.119885?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. John A. Norton & Frank M. Bass, 1987. "A Diffusion Theory Model of Adoption and Substitution for Successive Generations of High-Technology Products," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 33(9), pages 1069-1086, September.
    2. Michalakelis, Christos & Varoutas, Dimitris & Sphicopoulos, Thomas, 0. "Diffusion models of mobile telephony in Greece," Telecommunications Policy, Elsevier, vol. 32(3-4), pages 234-245, April.
    3. Lee, Sangwon & Marcu, Mircea & Lee, Seonmi, 2011. "An empirical analysis of fixed and mobile broadband diffusion," Information Economics and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 227-233.
    4. Bewley, Ronald & Fiebig, Denzil G., 1988. "A flexible logistic growth model with applications in telecommunications," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 4(2), pages 177-192.
    5. Roger M. Heeler & Thomas P. Hustad, 1980. "Problems in Predicting New Product Growth for Consumer Durables," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 26(10), pages 1007-1020, October.
    6. Turk, Tomaž & Trkman, Peter, 2012. "Bass model estimates for broadband diffusion in European countries," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 79(1), pages 85-96.
    7. Gamboa, Luis Fernando & Otero, Jesús, 0. "An estimation of the pattern of diffusion of mobile phones: The case of Colombia," Telecommunications Policy, Elsevier, vol. 33(10-11), pages 611-620, November.
    8. Ovando, Catalina & Pérez, Jorge & Moral, Antolín, 2015. "LTE techno-economic assessment: The case of rural areas in Spain," Telecommunications Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 269-283.
    9. Hwang, Junseok & Cho, Youngsang & Long, Nguyen Viet, 2009. "Investigation of factors affecting the diffusion of mobile telephone services: An empirical analysis for Vietnam," Telecommunications Policy, Elsevier, vol. 33(9), pages 534-543, October.
    10. V. Srinivasan & Charlotte H. Mason, 1986. "Technical Note—Nonlinear Least Squares Estimation of New Product Diffusion Models," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 5(2), pages 169-178.
    11. Sultanov, Azamat & Lee, Deok-Joo & Kim, Kyung-Taek & Avila, Luz Angelica Pirir, 2016. "The diffusion of mobile telephony in Kazakhstan: An empirical analysis," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 45-52.
    12. Rouvinen, Petri, 2006. "Diffusion of digital mobile telephony: Are developing countries different?," Telecommunications Policy, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 46-63, February.
    13. Yamakawa, Peter & Rees, Gareth H. & Manuel Salas, José & Alva, Nikolai, 2013. "The diffusion of mobile telephones: An empirical analysis for Peru," Telecommunications Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(6), pages 594-606.
    14. Xia, Jun, 2012. "Reprint of: Competition and regulation in China's 3G/4G mobile communications industry—Institutions, governance, and telecom SOEs," Telecommunications Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(10), pages 798-816.
    15. Gruber, Harald, 2001. "Competition and innovation: The diffusion of mobile telecommunications in Central and Eastern Europe," Information Economics and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 13(1), pages 19-34, March.
    16. Nigel Meade & Towhidul Islam, 1998. "Technological Forecasting---Model Selection, Model Stability, and Combining Models," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 44(8), pages 1115-1130, August.
    17. Frank M. Bass, 1969. "A New Product Growth for Model Consumer Durables," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 15(5), pages 215-227, January.
    18. Singh, Sanjay Kumar, 0. "The diffusion of mobile phones in India," Telecommunications Policy, Elsevier, vol. 32(9-10), pages 642-651, October.
    19. Meade, Nigel & Islam, Towhidul, 1995. "Forecasting with growth curves: An empirical comparison," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 11(2), pages 199-215, June.
    20. Wareham, Jonathan & Levy, Armando & Shi, Wei, 0. "Wireless diffusion and mobile computing: implications for the digital divide," Telecommunications Policy, Elsevier, vol. 28(5-6), pages 439-457, June.
    21. Meade, Nigel & Islam, Towhidul, 2006. "Modelling and forecasting the diffusion of innovation - A 25-year review," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 519-545.
    22. Chu, Wen-Lin & Wu, Feng-Shang & Kao, Kai-Sheng & Yen, David C., 2009. "Diffusion of mobile telephony: An empirical study in Taiwan," Telecommunications Policy, Elsevier, vol. 33(9), pages 506-520, October.
    23. Peres, Renana & Muller, Eitan & Mahajan, Vijay, 2010. "Innovation diffusion and new product growth models: A critical review and research directions," International Journal of Research in Marketing, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 91-106.
    24. Lim, Jinyang & Nam, Changi & Kim, Seongcheol & Rhee, Hongjai & Lee, Euehun & Lee, Hongkyu, 2012. "Forecasting 3G mobile subscription in China: A study based on stochastic frontier analysis and a Bass diffusion model," Telecommunications Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(10), pages 858-871.
    25. Botelho, Anabela & Pinto, L.C.Lígia Costa, 0. "The diffusion of cellular phones in Portugal," Telecommunications Policy, Elsevier, vol. 28(5-6), pages 427-437, June.
    26. Tseng, Fang-Mei & Wang, Shenq-Yuan & Hsieh, Chih-Hung & Guo, Aifang, 2014. "An integrated model for analyzing the development of the 4G telecommunications market in Taiwan," Telecommunications Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 14-31.
    27. Heli Koski & Tobias Kretschmer, 2004. "Entry, Standards and Competition: Firm Strategies and the Diffusion of Mobile Telephony," Review of Industrial Organization, Springer;The Industrial Organization Society, vol. 26(1), pages 89-113, November.
    28. Minkyu Lee & Youngsang Cho, 2007. "The diffusion of mobile telecommunications services in Korea," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(7), pages 477-481.
    29. Silvia Massini, 2004. "The diffusion of mobile telephony in Italy and the UK: an empirical investigation," Economics of Innovation and New Technology, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(3), pages 251-277.
    30. Gupta, Ruchita & Jain, Karuna, 2012. "Diffusion of mobile telephony in India: An empirical study," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 79(4), pages 709-715.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Gao, Mingyun & Yang, Honglin & Xiao, Qinzi & Goh, Mark, 2022. "A novel method for carbon emission forecasting based on Gompertz's law and fractional grey model: Evidence from American industrial sector," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 181(C), pages 803-819.
    2. Xie, Xuemei & Liu, Xiaojie & Blanco, Cristina, 2023. "Evaluating and forecasting the niche fitness of regional innovation ecosystems: A comparative evaluation of different optimized grey models," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 191(C).
    3. Benseny, Jaume & Lahteenmaki, Jarno & Toyli, Juuso & Hammainen, Heikki, 2023. "Urban wireless traffic evolution: The role of new devices and the effect of policy," Telecommunications Policy, Elsevier, vol. 47(7).
    4. Ashutosh Jha & Manisha Chakrabarty & Debashis Saha, 2023. "Network Investment as Drivers of Mobile Subscription – A Firm-level Analysis," Information Systems Frontiers, Springer, vol. 25(5), pages 1811-1828, October.
    5. Bacha, Radia & Gasmi, Farid, 2022. "The broadband diffusion process and its determinants in Algeria: A simultaneous estimation," TSE Working Papers 22-1309, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE).
    6. Hietschold, Nadine & Reinhardt, Ronny & Gurtner, Sebastian, 2020. "Who put the “NO” in Innovation? Innovation resistance leaders’ behaviors and self-identities," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
    7. Saurabh Panwar & P. K. Kapur & Ompal Singh, 2021. "Predicting diffusion dynamics and launch time strategy for mobile telecommunication services: an empirical analysis," Information Technology and Management, Springer, vol. 22(1), pages 33-51, March.
    8. Kumar, Rajeev Ranjan & Guha, Pritha & Chakraborty, Abhishek, 2022. "Comparative assessment and selection of electric vehicle diffusion models: A global outlook," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 238(PC).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Meade, Nigel & Islam, Towhidul, 2015. "Forecasting in telecommunications and ICT—A review," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 1105-1126.
    2. Thakur Dhakal & Dae-Eun Lim, 2020. "Understanding ICT adoption in SAARC member countries," Letters in Spatial and Resource Sciences, Springer, vol. 13(1), pages 67-80, April.
    3. Avila, Luz Angelica Pirir & Lee, Deok-Joo & Kim, Taegu, 2018. "Diffusion and competitive relationship of mobile telephone service in Guatemala: An empirical analysis," Telecommunications Policy, Elsevier, vol. 42(2), pages 116-126.
    4. Ashutosh Jha & Debashis Saha, 2022. "Mobile Broadband for Inclusive Connectivity: What Deters the High-Capacity Deployment of 4G-LTE Innovation in India?," Information Systems Frontiers, Springer, vol. 24(4), pages 1305-1329, August.
    5. Baburin, Vyacheslav & Zemtsov, Stepan, 2014. "Diffussion of ICT-products and "five Russias"," MPRA Paper 68926, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 10 May 2014.
    6. Riikonen, Antti & Smura, Timo & Kivi, Antero & Töyli, Juuso, 2013. "Diffusion of mobile handset features: Analysis of turning points and stages," Telecommunications Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(6), pages 563-572.
    7. Bacha, Radia & Gasmi, Farid, 2022. "The broadband diffusion process and its determinants in Algeria: A simultaneous estimation," TSE Working Papers 22-1309, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE).
    8. Gupta, Ruchita & Jain, Karuna, 2016. "Competition effect of a new mobile technology on an incumbent technology: An Indian case study," Telecommunications Policy, Elsevier, vol. 40(4), pages 332-342.
    9. Saurabh Panwar & P. K. Kapur & Ompal Singh, 2021. "Predicting diffusion dynamics and launch time strategy for mobile telecommunication services: an empirical analysis," Information Technology and Management, Springer, vol. 22(1), pages 33-51, March.
    10. Ashutosh Jha & Manisha Chakrabarty & Debashis Saha, 2023. "Network Investment as Drivers of Mobile Subscription – A Firm-level Analysis," Information Systems Frontiers, Springer, vol. 25(5), pages 1811-1828, October.
    11. Yamakawa, Peter & Rees, Gareth H. & Manuel Salas, José & Alva, Nikolai, 2013. "The diffusion of mobile telephones: An empirical analysis for Peru," Telecommunications Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(6), pages 594-606.
    12. Xiaoxia Fu & Ping Zhang & Juzhi Zhang, 2017. "Forecasting and Analyzing Internet Users of China with Lotka–Volterra Model," Asia-Pacific Journal of Operational Research (APJOR), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 34(01), pages 1-18, February.
    13. Kumar, Rajeev Ranjan & Guha, Pritha & Chakraborty, Abhishek, 2022. "Comparative assessment and selection of electric vehicle diffusion models: A global outlook," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 238(PC).
    14. Krishnan, Trichy V. & Feng, Shanfei & Jain, Dipak C., 2023. "Peak sales time prediction in new product sales: Can a product manager rely on it?," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 165(C).
    15. Barman, Hemanta & Dutta, Mrinal Kanti & Nath, Hiranya K., 2018. "The telecommunications divide among Indian states," Telecommunications Policy, Elsevier, vol. 42(7), pages 530-551.
    16. Sergei Sidorov & Alexey Faizliev & Vladimir Balash & Olga Balash & Maria Krylova & Aleksandr Fomenko, 2021. "Extended innovation diffusion models and their empirical performance on real propagation data," Journal of Marketing Analytics, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 9(2), pages 99-110, June.
    17. Barnes, Belinda & Southwell, Darren & Bruce, Sarah & Woodhams, Felicity, 2014. "Additionality, common practice and incentive schemes for the uptake of innovations," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 43-61.
    18. Fildes, Robert & Kumar, V., 2002. "Telecommunications demand forecasting--a review," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 489-522.
    19. Zaber, Moinul & Sirbu, Marvin, 2012. "Impact of spectrum management policy on the penetration of 3G technology," Telecommunications Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(9), pages 762-782.
    20. Dewenter, Ralf & Kruse, Jörn, 2011. "Calling party pays or receiving party pays? The diffusion of mobile telephony with endogenous regulation," Information Economics and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 107-117, March.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:tefoso:v:152:y:2020:i:c:s0040162517305383. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/journal/00401625 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.