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An estimation of the pattern of diffusion of mobile phones: The case of Colombia

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  • Gamboa, Luis Fernando
  • Otero, Jesús

Abstract

This paper examines the diffusion pattern of mobile telephony in Colombia. The empirical modelling approach adopted in the paper starts off by choosing between the two functional forms that are most frequently used in the literature, namely the Gompertz and the Logistic models. After applying a formal statistical test to choose the preferred functional form, the evidence suggests that the pattern of diffusion can be best characterised as following a Logistic model. The findings also suggest that despite the fact that in recent years the rate of growth of mobile phone subscribers has started to slow down, there still appears to be room for further expansion as the saturation level is expected to be reached in 2013. The estimated saturation level is consistent with some individuals possessing more than one mobile device.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Telecommunications Policy.

Volume (Year): 33 ()
Issue (Month): 10-11 (November)
Pages: 611-620

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Handle: RePEc:eee:telpol:v:33:y::i:10-11:p:611-620

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Keywords: Technology diffusion Mobile telecommunications Gompertz curve Logistic curve Colombia;

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  1. Geroski, P. A., 2000. "Models of technology diffusion," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 29(4-5), pages 603-625, April.
  2. Grajek, Michal & Kretschmer, Tobias, 2009. "Usage and diffusion of cellular telephony, 1998-2004," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 238-249, March.
  3. Silvia Massini, 2004. "The diffusion of mobile telephony in Italy and the UK: an empirical investigation," Economics of Innovation and New Technology, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(3), pages 251-277.
  4. Gruber, H. & Verboven, F.L., 1998. "The Diffusion of Mobile Telecommunications Services in the European Union," Discussion Paper 1998-138, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
  5. repec:cup:cbooks:9780521586412 is not listed on IDEAS
  6. Luis Fernando Gamboa & Luis Hernando Gutiérrez, 2008. "Use of informal mobile telephony in low income households in Colombia," DOCUMENTOS DE TRABAJO 004749, UNIVERSIDAD DEL ROSARIO.
  7. Botelho, Anabela & Pinto, L.C.Lígia Costa, 0. "The diffusion of cellular phones in Portugal," Telecommunications Policy, Elsevier, vol. 28(5-6), pages 427-437, June.
  8. Cadima, Nuno & Pita Barros, Pedro Luis, 2000. "The Impact of Mobile Phone Diffusion on the Fixed-Link Network," CEPR Discussion Papers 2598, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  9. Doganoglu, Toker & Grzybowski, Lukasz, 2007. "Estimating network effects in mobile telephony in Germany," Information Economics and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 65-79, March.
  10. Singh, Sanjay Kumar, 0. "The diffusion of mobile phones in India," Telecommunications Policy, Elsevier, vol. 32(9-10), pages 642-651, October.
  11. Luis Hernando Gutierrez & Luis Fernando Gamboa, 2008. "An approximation to the digital divide among low income people in Colombia, Mexico and Perú: two composite indexes," DOCUMENTOS DE TRABAJO 004710, UNIVERSIDAD DEL ROSARIO.
  12. McCloughan, Patrick & Lyons, Sean, 0. "Accounting for ARPU: New evidence from international panel data," Telecommunications Policy, Elsevier, vol. 30(10-11), pages 521-532, November.
  13. Fildes, Robert & Kumar, V., 2002. "Telecommunications demand forecasting--a review," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 489-522.
  14. Banerjee, Aniruddha & Ros, Agustin J., 2004. "Patterns in global fixed and mobile telecommunications development: a cluster analysis," Telecommunications Policy, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 107-132, March.
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Cited by:
  1. Hiroshi Kitamura & Akira Miyaoka & Misato Sato, 2011. "Free Entry, Market Diffusion, and Social Inefficiency with Endogenously Growing Demand," Discussion Papers in Economics and Business 11-04-Rev, Osaka University, Graduate School of Economics and Osaka School of International Public Policy (OSIPP), revised Nov 2012.

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