An estimation of the pattern of diffusion of mobile phones: The case of Colombia
AbstractThis paper examines the diffusion pattern of mobile telephony in Colombia. The empirical modelling approach adopted in the paper starts off by choosing between the two functional forms that are most frequently used in the literature, namely the Gompertz and the Logistic models. After applying a formal statistical test to choose the preferred functional form, the evidence suggests that the pattern of diffusion can be best characterised as following a Logistic model. The findings also suggest that despite the fact that in recent years the rate of growth of mobile phone subscribers has started to slow down, there still appears to be room for further expansion as the saturation level is expected to be reached in 2013. The estimated saturation level is consistent with some individuals possessing more than one mobile device.
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Elsevier in its journal Telecommunications Policy.
Volume (Year): 33 ()
Issue (Month): 10-11 (November)
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Other versions of this item:
- Luis Fernando Gamboa & Jesus Otero, 2008. "An estimation of the pattern of diffusion of mobile phones: the case of Colombia," DOCUMENTOS DE TRABAJO 005149, UNIVERSIDAD DEL ROSARIO.
- C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
- L96 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Transportation and Utilities - - - Telecommunications
- O30 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Technological Change; Research and Development; Intellectual Property Rights - - - General
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