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The diffusion of mobile telephony in Italy and the UK: an empirical investigation

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  • Silvia Massini

Abstract

Since its appearance mobile telephony has shown a remarkably fast diffusion pattern in most advanced countries. This paper investigates technological and economic factors that have influenced the diffusion process of cellular phones, in particular the diffusion speed and the upper limit. The epidemic model widely used in diffusion studies is summarised and discussed highlighting the evolutionary disequilibrium nature of diffusion processes. Moreover, the econometric specification of some of the models distinguishes between long-run relationships and short-run adjustments to a continuously evolving pattern. We find that the new digital technology, which coincides with increased competition in both Italy and the UK, has made the process faster and increased the saturation level in Italy, but not in the UK; in Italy only the decreasing price of the handset has affected the diffusion process, whereas we find that, in addition to that, decreasing tariffs and increasing consumption expenditures have been significant in shaping the diffusion process of mobile telephony in the UK.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Taylor & Francis Journals in its journal Economics of Innovation and New Technology.

Volume (Year): 13 (2004)
Issue (Month): 3 ()
Pages: 251-277

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Handle: RePEc:taf:ecinnt:v:13:y:2004:i:3:p:251-277

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Related research

Keywords: Technological innovations diffusion; Disequilibrium models; Mobile telephony;

References

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  1. Foray, Dominique & Grubler, Arnulf, 1990. "Morphological analysis, diffusion and lockout of technologies: Ferrous casting in France and the FRG," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 19(6), pages 535-550, December.
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  7. Colombo, Massimo G & Mosconi, Rocco, 1995. "Complementarity and Cumulative Learning Effects in the Early Diffusion of Multiple Technologies," Journal of Industrial Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 43(1), pages 13-48, March.
  8. Stoneman, Paul & Kwon, Myung-Joong, 1994. "The Diffusion of Multiple Process Technologies," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 104(423), pages 420-31, March.
  9. Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987. "Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-76, March.
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Cited by:
  1. Dewenter, Ralf & Kruse, Jörn, 2010. "Calling party pays or receiving party pays? The diffusion of mobile telephony with endogenous regulation," DICE Discussion Papers 10, Heinrich‐Heine‐Universität Düsseldorf, Düsseldorf Institute for Competition Economics (DICE).
  2. Theologos Dergiades & Apostolos Dasilas, 2009. "Modelling and Forecasting Mobile Telecommunication Services: The case of Greece," Discussion Paper Series 2009_13, Department of Economics, University of Macedonia, revised Sep 2009.
  3. James G. Mulligan & Nilotpal Das, 2006. "Item Pricing Laws, Supplier Behavior, and the Diffusion of Time-Saving Technology Innovations," Working Papers 06-11, University of Delaware, Department of Economics.
  4. Gamboa, Luis Fernando & Otero, Jesús, 0. "An estimation of the pattern of diffusion of mobile phones: The case of Colombia," Telecommunications Policy, Elsevier, vol. 33(10-11), pages 611-620, November.
  5. James G. Mulligan & Nilotpal Das, 2004. "Vintage Effects and the Diffusion of Time-Saving Technological Innovations: The Adoption of Optical Scanners by U.S. Supermarkets."," Working Papers 04-06, University of Delaware, Department of Economics.

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