A population dependent diffusion model with a stochastic extension
AbstractDiffusion modeling is rather broad in nature, and is important in the areas of estimation and forecasting. Conventional models do not incorporate parameters that explicitly take into account the size of the population, or, equivalently, the size of the potential market. As a consequence, the models often fail to provide accurate forecasts, especially when the diffusion process is in the take-off stage. Furthermore, since diffusion is not a strictly deterministic process, forecasts should provide a measure of the underlying uncertainty of the process by incorporating a stochastic process into the formulation of the models.
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Elsevier in its journal International Journal of Forecasting.
Volume (Year): 28 (2012)
Issue (Month): 3 ()
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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/ijforecast
Innovation diffusion; High technology markets; Technology estimation and forecasting; ‘‘Population” diffusion model (PDM); Stochastic diffusion models (SDM);
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