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An estimation of the pattern of diffusion of mobile phones: the case of Colombia

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  • Luis Fernando Gamboa

    ()

  • Jesus Otero

    ()

Abstract

In this paper we fond that the difusion pattern of mobile telephony in Colombia can be best haracterised as following a Logistic curve. Although in recent years the rate of growth of mobile phone subscribers has started to slow down, we find evidence that there is still room for further expansion as thesaturation level is expected to be reached in five years time. The estimated saturation level is consistent with some individuals possessing more than one mobile device.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by UNIVERSIDAD DEL ROSARIO in its series DOCUMENTOS DE TRABAJO with number 005149.

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Length: 22
Date of creation: 02 Nov 2008
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:col:000092:005149

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Keywords: Technology di¤usion; Mobile telecommunications; Gompertzcurve; Logistic curve; Colombia.;

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  1. Botelho, Anabela & Pinto, L.C.Lígia Costa, 0. "The diffusion of cellular phones in Portugal," Telecommunications Policy, Elsevier, vol. 28(5-6), pages 427-437, June.
  2. Silvia Massini, 2004. "The diffusion of mobile telephony in Italy and the UK: an empirical investigation," Economics of Innovation and New Technology, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(3), pages 251-277.
  3. Gruber, H. & Verboven, F.L., 1998. "The Diffusion of Mobile Telecommunications Services in the European Union," Discussion Paper 1998-138, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
  4. Singh, Sanjay Kumar, 0. "The diffusion of mobile phones in India," Telecommunications Policy, Elsevier, vol. 32(9-10), pages 642-651, October.
  5. Banerjee, Aniruddha & Ros, Agustin J., 2004. "Patterns in global fixed and mobile telecommunications development: a cluster analysis," Telecommunications Policy, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 107-132, March.
  6. Luis Fernando Gamboa & Luis Hernando Gutiérrez, 2008. "Use of informal mobile telephony in low income households in Colombia," DOCUMENTOS DE TRABAJO 004749, UNIVERSIDAD DEL ROSARIO.
  7. McCloughan, Patrick & Lyons, Sean, 0. "Accounting for ARPU: New evidence from international panel data," Telecommunications Policy, Elsevier, vol. 30(10-11), pages 521-532, November.
  8. Luis Hernando Gutierrez & Luis Fernando Gamboa, 2008. "An approximation to the digital divide among low income people in Colombia, Mexico and Perú: two composite indexes," DOCUMENTOS DE TRABAJO 004710, UNIVERSIDAD DEL ROSARIO.
  9. Michal Grajek & Tobias Kretschmer, 2006. "Usage and Diffusion of Cellular Telephony, 1998-2004," CIG Working Papers SP II 2006-20, Wissenschaftszentrum Berlin (WZB), Research Unit: Competition and Innovation (CIG).
  10. Franses,Philip Hans, 1998. "Time Series Models for Business and Economic Forecasting," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521586412, October.
  11. Cadima, Nuno & Pita Barros, Pedro Luis, 2000. "The Impact of Mobile Phone Diffusion on the Fixed-Link Network," CEPR Discussion Papers 2598, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  12. Geroski, P. A., 2000. "Models of technology diffusion," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 29(4-5), pages 603-625, April.
  13. Doganoglu, Toker & Grzybowski, Lukasz, 2007. "Estimating network effects in mobile telephony in Germany," Information Economics and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 65-79, March.
  14. Fildes, Robert & Kumar, V., 2002. "Telecommunications demand forecasting--a review," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 489-522.
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Cited by:
  1. Hiroshi Kitamura & Akira Miyaoka & Misato Sato, 2011. "Free Entry, Market Diffusion, and Social Inefficiency with Endogenously Growing Demand," Discussion Papers in Economics and Business 11-04-Rev, Osaka University, Graduate School of Economics and Osaka School of International Public Policy (OSIPP), revised Nov 2012.

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