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The Sales Effect of Word of Mouth: A Model for Creative Goods and Estimates for Novels

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Author Info
Jonathan Beck

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Abstract

Weekly sales of creative goods - like music records, movies or books - usually peak shortly after release and then decline quickly. In many cases, however, they follow a hump-shaped pattern where sales increase for some time. A popular explanation for this phenomenon is word of mouth among a population of heterogeneous buyers, but previous studies typically assume buyer homogeneity or neglect word of mouth altogether. In this paper, I study a model of new-product diffusion with heterogeneous buyers that allows for a quantification of the sales effect of word of mouth. The model includes Christmas sales as a special case. All parameters have an intuitive interpretation. Simulation results suggest that the parameters are estimable for data that are not too volatile and that cover a sufficiently large part of a title’s life cycle. I estimate the model for four exemplary novels using scanner data on weekly sales.

ZUSAMMENFASSUNG - (Die Verkaufswirkung von Mundpropaganda: ein Modell für kreative Produkte und Schätzwerte für Romane)
Meistens erreichen die wöchentlichen Verkäufe von kreativen Produkten wie Musikalben, Kinofilmen oder Büchern kurz nach Veröffentlichung ihren Höhepunkt und nehmen dann schnell ab. In einigen Fällen jedoch zeigen sie einen buckelartigen Verlauf mit zunächst ansteigenden Verkäufen. Eine populäre Erklärung für dieses Phänomen beruht auf der Existenz von Mundpropaganda unter heterogenen Käufern, doch bisherige Studien gehen typischerweise von der Annahme homogener Käufer aus oder vernachlässigen Mundpropaganda gänzlich. Dieses Papier betrachtet ein Modell der Verbreitung neuer Produkte unter heterogenen Käufern, welches eine Quantifizierung der Verkaufswirkung von Mundpropaganda ermöglicht. Das Modell beinhaltet Weihnachtsverkäufe als Spezialfall. Alle Modellparameter haben eine intuitive Bedeutung. Ergebnisse einer Simulation zeigen, dass die Parameter empirisch geschätzt werden können, wenn die Daten einen hinreichend großen Teil des Verkaufszyklus eines Titels abdecken und nicht zu volatil sind. Das Modell wird auf Scannerdaten für vier exemplarische Romane angewendet.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Wissenschaftszentrum Berlin (WZB), Research Unit: Competition and Innovation (CIG) in its series CIG Working Papers with number SP II 2006-16.

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Length: 36 pages
Date of creation: Sep 2006
Date of revision:
Publication status: Published in the Journal of Cultural Economics, Vol. 31(1), Mar. 2007, pp. 5-23.
Handle: RePEc:wzb:wzebiv:spii2006-16

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Related research
Keywords: new-product diffusion; word of mouth; creative industries;

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:
C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions
L82 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Entertainment; Media
M3 - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting - - Marketing and Advertising

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Judith A. Chevalier & Dina Mayzlin, 2003. "The Effect of Word of Mouth on Sales: Online Book Reviews," NBER Working Papers 10148, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Geroski, P. A., 2000. "Models of technology diffusion," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 29(4-5), pages 603-625, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. De Vany, Arthur S. & Walls, W. David, 2004. "Motion picture profit, the stable Paretian hypothesis, and the curse of the superstar," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 28(6), pages 1035-1057, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Bronwyn Hall & Beethika Khan, 2003. "Adoption of New Technology," Department of Economics, Working Paper Series 1055, Department of Economics, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley. [Downloadable!]
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  5. Canoy, Marcel & van der Ploeg, Frederick & van Ours, Jan C, 2005. "The Economics of Books," CEPR Discussion Papers 4892, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Jonathan Beck, 2004. "Fixed, Focal, Fair? Book Prices Under Optional Resale Price Maintenance," CIG Working Papers SP II 2004-15, Wissenschaftszentrum Berlin (WZB), Research Unit: Competition and Innovation (CIG). [Downloadable!]
  7. Trajtenberg, Manuel & Yitzhaki, Shlomo, 1989. "The Diffusion of Innovations: A Methodological Reappraisal," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 7(1), pages 35-47, January.
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  8. Boswijk, H. Peter & Franses, Philip Hans, 2005. "On the Econometrics of the Bass Diffusion Model," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 23, pages 255-268, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Waldfogel, Joel, 1993. "The Deadweight Loss of Christmas," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(5), pages 1328-36, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. De Vany, Arthur & Walls, W David, 1996. "Bose-Einstein Dynamics and Adaptive Contracting in the Motion Picture Industry," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 106(439), pages 1493-1514, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Jonathan Beck, 2006. "The Sales Effect of Word of Mouth: A Model for Creative Goods and Estimates for Novels," CIG Working Papers SP II 2006-16, Wissenschaftszentrum Berlin (WZB), Research Unit: Competition and Innovation (CIG). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Beck, Jonathan, 2009. "Diderot's rule," MPRA Paper 17404, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  2. Khim Yong, Goh & Kai-Lung, Hui & I.P.L. , Png, 2008. "Social Interaction, Observational Learning, and Privacy: the "Do Not Call" Registry," MPRA Paper 8225, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  3. Jonathan Beck, 2007. "The sales effect of word of mouth: a model for creative goods and estimates for novels," Journal of Cultural Economics, Springer, vol. 31(1), pages 5-23, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  4. Jason Potts & Stuart Cunningham & John Hartley & Paul Ormerod, 2008. "Social network markets: a new definition of the creative industries," Journal of Cultural Economics, Springer, vol. 32(3), pages 167-185, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Edoardo Gaffeo & Antonello E. Scorci & Laura Vici, 2008. "Demand Distribution Dynamics in Creative Industries: the Market for Books in Italy," Department of Economics Working Papers 0804, Department of Economics, University of Trento, Italia. [Downloadable!]
  6. E. Gaffeo & A. E. Scorcu & L. Vici, 2008. "Demand Distribution Dynamics in Creative Industries: the Market for Books in Italy," Working Papers 630, Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  7. Seaman, Bruce A., 2009. "Cultural Economics: The State of the Art and Perspectives/Economía de la cultura: estado del arte y perspectivas," Estudios de Economía Aplicada, Estudios de Economía Aplicada, vol. 27, Abril. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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