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Problems in Predicting New Product Growth for Consumer Durables

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Author Info

  • Roger M. Heeler

    (York University)

  • Thomas P. Hustad

    (Indiana University)

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    Abstract

    A popular model of new product diffusion is applied in an international setting. Several limitations on its use are noted: instability with limited data, environmental differences, and systematic under reporting of estimated time to attain peak level of first purchase sales.

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    File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.26.10.1007
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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by INFORMS in its journal Management Science.

    Volume (Year): 26 (1980)
    Issue (Month): 10 (October)
    Pages: 1007-1020

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    Handle: RePEc:inm:ormnsc:v:26:y:1980:i:10:p:1007-1020

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    Related research

    Keywords: marketing: new products; forecasting; industries: electric/electronic;

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    Cited by:
    1. Islam, Towhidul & Fiebig, Denzil G. & Meade, Nigel, 2002. "Modelling multinational telecommunications demand with limited data," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 605-624.
    2. Meade, Nigel & Islam, Towhidul, 1995. "Forecasting with growth curves: An empirical comparison," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 11(2), pages 199-215, June.
    3. Urban, Glen L. & Roberts, John H. & Hauser, John R., 1986. "Prelaunch forecasting of new automobiles : models and implementation," Working papers 1820-86., Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management.
    4. Stremersch, S. & Lemmens, A., 2008. "Sales Growth of New Pharmaceuticals Across the Globe: The Role of Regulatory Regimes," ERIM Report Series Research in Management ERS-2008-026-MKT, Erasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM), ERIM is the joint research institute of the Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University and the Erasmus School of Economics (ESE) at Erasmus Uni.
    5. Kim, Namwoon & Srivastava, Rajendra K., 2007. "Modeling cross-price effects on inter-category dynamics: The case of three computing platforms," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 290-301, June.
    6. Crompton, Paul, 2001. "The diffusion of new steelmaking technology," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 87-95, June.
    7. Christos Michalakelis & Georgia Dede & Dimitris Varoutas & Thomas Sphicopoulos, 2010. "Estimating diffusion and price elasticity with application to telecommunications," Netnomics, Springer, vol. 11(3), pages 221-242, October.

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