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Forecasting 3G mobile subscription in China: A study based on stochastic frontier analysis and a Bass diffusion model

Author

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  • Lim, Jinyang
  • Nam, Changi
  • Kim, Seongcheol
  • Rhee, Hongjai
  • Lee, Euehun
  • Lee, Hongkyu

Abstract

This paper forecasts 3G mobile subscription in mainland China while incorporating regional disparity. First, using stochastic frontier analysis, this paper tries to measure the relative market potential of 2G mobile service in 31 Chinese provinces. Second, this paper estimates diffusion parameters, including innovation coefficient, imitation coefficient and potential market size, of 31 provinces from 2G data. Then, this paper forecasts 3G mobile subscription using the original Bass model. In particular, this paper uses the market potential of each province in a modified Bass model in order to estimate the maximum level of 3G subscription. Finally, the paper presents meaningful implications for policy makers and mobile network operators in China.

Suggested Citation

  • Lim, Jinyang & Nam, Changi & Kim, Seongcheol & Rhee, Hongjai & Lee, Euehun & Lee, Hongkyu, 2012. "Forecasting 3G mobile subscription in China: A study based on stochastic frontier analysis and a Bass diffusion model," Telecommunications Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(10), pages 858-871.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:telpol:v:36:y:2012:i:10:p:858-871
    DOI: 10.1016/j.telpol.2012.07.016
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    Cited by:

    1. Lang Liang, 2021. "Novel Optimization-Based Parameter Estimation Method for the Bass Diffusion Model," SAGE Open, , vol. 11(2), pages 21582440211, June.
    2. Saurabh Panwar & P. K. Kapur & Ompal Singh, 2021. "Predicting diffusion dynamics and launch time strategy for mobile telecommunication services: an empirical analysis," Information Technology and Management, Springer, vol. 22(1), pages 33-51, March.
    3. Guo, Jie & Bouwman, Harry, 2016. "An analytical framework for an m-payment ecosystem: A merchants׳ perspective," Telecommunications Policy, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 147-167.
    4. Ashutosh Jha & Debashis Saha, 2022. "Mobile Broadband for Inclusive Connectivity: What Deters the High-Capacity Deployment of 4G-LTE Innovation in India?," Information Systems Frontiers, Springer, vol. 24(4), pages 1305-1329, August.
    5. Miao, Miao & Jayakar, Krishna, 2016. "Mobile payments in Japan, South Korea and China: Cross-border convergence or divergence of business models?," Telecommunications Policy, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 182-196.
    6. Xia, Jun, 2017. "China’s telecommunications evolution, institutions, and policy issues on the eve of 5G: A two-decade retrospect and prospect," Telecommunications Policy, Elsevier, vol. 41(10), pages 931-947.
    7. Benseny, Jaume & Lahteenmaki, Jarno & Toyli, Juuso & Hammainen, Heikki, 2023. "Urban wireless traffic evolution: The role of new devices and the effect of policy," Telecommunications Policy, Elsevier, vol. 47(7).
    8. Jha, Ashutosh & Saha, Debashis, 2020. "“Forecasting and analysing the characteristics of 3G and 4G mobile broadband diffusion in India: A comparative evaluation of Bass, Norton-Bass, Gompertz, and logistic growth models”," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 152(C).
    9. Lim, Jinyang & Nam, Changi & Kim, Seongcheol & Lee, Euehun & Lee, Hongkyu, 2015. "A new regional clustering approach for mobile telecommunications policy in China," Telecommunications Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 296-304.

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