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Bass model estimates for broadband diffusion in European countries

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  • Turk, Tomaž
  • Trkman, Peter

Abstract

The paper presents a broadband diffusion analysis for European OECD member countries. The Bass diffusion model is used to estimate the total number of potential adopters, the coefficient of innovation and the coefficient of imitation. The analysis shows that if the present trends continue broadband services will not reach the 100% penetration rate in the near future. Based on these findings, the question of a possible revitalization is discussed with a focus on those segments of the population which are slower to adopt broadband. A survey of households in rural areas provides preliminary investigation of reasons for continuing non-adoption, such as social habits and lack of both knowledge and interest.

Suggested Citation

  • Turk, Tomaž & Trkman, Peter, 2012. "Bass model estimates for broadband diffusion in European countries," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 79(1), pages 85-96.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:tefoso:v:79:y:2012:i:1:p:85-96
    DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2011.06.010
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    14. Sudtasan, Tatcha, 2015. "Economic determinants of optical fiber share in total broadband connections in OECD countries," 26th European Regional ITS Conference, Madrid 2015 127179, International Telecommunications Society (ITS).
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    16. Xiaoxia Fu & Ping Zhang & Juzhi Zhang, 2017. "Forecasting and Analyzing Internet Users of China with Lotka–Volterra Model," Asia-Pacific Journal of Operational Research (APJOR), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 34(01), pages 1-18, February.
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    18. Lee, Hakyeon & Kim, Sang Gook & Park, Hyun-woo & Kang, Pilsung, 2014. "Pre-launch new product demand forecasting using the Bass model: A statistical and machine learning-based approach," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 49-64.
    19. Mitrović, Slobodan & Radojičić, Valentina & Stojanović, Mirjana & Marković, Goran, 2018. "The capacity expansion approach in optical transport networks with fixed and flexible grids," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 127(C), pages 310-316.

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