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MADness in the method: On the volatility and irregularity of technology diffusion

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  • Bodo, Peter

Abstract

The paper investigates how some drivers of technology diffusion shape the volatility and irregularity of the diffusion process. It presents an agent-based simulation model of technology diffusion that includes variables to control technology generations, social pressures, market size, and network randomness. Several variable combinations are defined, technology diffusions are simulated, and the volatility and irregularity of the process are measured. The paper explores scenarios with unusually high volatility and/or irregularity in more detail. It shows that technology generations mostly affect volatility, social pressures impact irregularity, while network randomness and market size amplify the other two factors' effects. Also, the paper argues that market structure changes generated by the factor combinations in question indirectly affect diffusion volatility and irregularity and these indirect effects may explain very high levels of, and unexpected changes in the volatility and irregularity of the technology diffusion process.

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  • Bodo, Peter, 2016. "MADness in the method: On the volatility and irregularity of technology diffusion," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 2-11.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:tefoso:v:111:y:2016:i:c:p:2-11
    DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2016.05.011
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