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Local labor market shocks and residential mortgage payments: Evidence from shale oil and gas booms

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  • McCollum, Meagan
  • Upton, Gregory B.

Abstract

Frequently, housing is the largest item on a household's balance sheet, and therefore making monthly mortgage payments is often both the largest regular expenditure as well as a primary savings vehicle for households. However, changes to economic conditions impact household spending and savings decisions. To investigate the dynamics of this relationship, we examine mortgage payment choices of homeowners who purchased property in areas that later experienced a positive shock to local economic conditions via the shale oil and gas boom. We find that borrowers with properties located in areas with shale oil and gas booms experienced a 6% reduction in the probability of missing a mortgage payment over the period 2007–2014. Indexing these results to the size of the boom, we find that one hundred additional rigs (billion dollars of oil and gas produced) are associated with a 3.2% (1.6%) decrease in default. Additionally, we find differential effects on housing markets across geography, time, loan leverage, and credit risk categories.

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  • McCollum, Meagan & Upton, Gregory B., 2018. "Local labor market shocks and residential mortgage payments: Evidence from shale oil and gas booms," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 162-197.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:resene:v:53:y:2018:i:c:p:162-197
    DOI: 10.1016/j.reseneeco.2018.05.001
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    Cited by:

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    3. William D. Larson & Weihua Zhao, 2020. "Oil Prices and Urban Housing Demand," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 48(3), pages 808-849, September.
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    5. Theodore Connell-Variy & Björn Berggren & Tony McGough, 2021. "Housing Markets and Resource Sector Fluctuations: A Cross-Border Comparative Analysis," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(16), pages 1-19, August.
    6. Wang, Haoying, 2020. "The economic impact of oil and gas development in the Permian Basin: Local and spillover effects," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • R23 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Regional Migration; Regional Labor Markets; Population
    • D14 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Household Saving; Personal Finance
    • Q33 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation - - - Resource Booms (Dutch Disease)
    • Q35 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation - - - Hydrocarbon Resources

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