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What "Triggers" Mortgage Default?

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Author Info

  • Ronel Elul
  • Nicholas S. Souleles
  • Souphala Chomsisengphet
  • Dennis Glennon
  • Robert Hunt

Abstract

This paper assesses the relative importance of two key drivers of mortgage default: negative equity and illiquidity. To do so, the authors combine loan-level mortgage data with detailed credit bureau information about the borrower's broader balance sheet. This gives them a direct way to measure illiquid borrowers: those with high credit card utilization rates. The authors find that both negative equity and illiquidity are significantly associated with mortgage default, with comparably sized marginal effects. Moreover, these two factors interact with each other: The effect of illiquidity on default generally increases with high combined loan-to-value ratios (CLTV), though it is significant even for low CLTV. County-level unemployment shocks are also associated with higher default risk (though less so than high utilization) and strongly interact with CLTV. In addition, having a second mortgage implies significantly higher default risk, particularly for borrowers who have a first-mortgage LTV approaching 100 percent.

(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

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File URL: http://www.aeaweb.org/articles.php?doi=10.1257/aer.100.2.490
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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by American Economic Association in its journal American Economic Review.

Volume (Year): 100 (2010)
Issue (Month): 2 (May)
Pages: 490-94

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Handle: RePEc:aea:aecrev:v:100:y:2010:i:2:p:490-94

Note: DOI: 10.1257/aer.100.2.490
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References

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  1. Kau James B. & Keenan Donald C. & Kim Taewon, 1994. "Default Probabilities for Mortgages," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 278-296, May.
  2. Sumit Agarwal & Chunlin Liu & Nicholas Souleles, 2007. "The reaction of consumer spending and debt to tax rebates; evidence from consumer credit data," Working Papers 07-34, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
  3. Ethan Cohen-Cole & Jonathan Morse, 2009. "Your house or your credit card, which would you choose?: personal delinquency tradeoffs and precautionary liquidity motives," Risk and Policy Analysis Unit Working Paper QAU09-5, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
  4. David B. Gross & Nicholas S. Souleles, 1999. "An Empirical Analysis of Personal Bankruptcy and Delinquency," Center for Financial Institutions Working Papers 98-28, Wharton School Center for Financial Institutions, University of Pennsylvania.
  5. Neil Bhutta & Jane Dokko & Hui Shan, 2010. "The depth of negative equity and mortgage default decisions," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2010-35, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  6. Patrick Bajari & Chenghuan Sean Chu & Minjung Park, 2008. "An Empirical Model of Subprime Mortgage Default From 2000 to 2007," NBER Working Papers 14625, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Guiso, Luigi & Sodini, Paolo, 2012. "Household Finance: An Emerging Field," CEPR Discussion Papers 8934, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  2. Christopher J. Mayer & Edward Morrison & Tomasz Piskorski & Arpit Gupta, 2011. "Mortgage Modification and Strategic Behavior: Evidence from a Legal Settlement with Countrywide," NBER Working Papers 17065, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Wenli Li & Michelle J. White & Ning Zhu, 2010. "Did Bankruptcy Reform Cause Mortgage Default to Rise?," NBER Working Papers 15968, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Gyourko, Joseph & Tracy, Joseph, 2014. "Reconciling theory and empirics on the role of unemployment in mortgage default," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 87-96.
  5. Chan, Sewin & Gedal, Michael & Been, Vicki & Haughwout, Andrew, 2013. "The role of neighborhood characteristics in mortgage default risk: Evidence from New York City," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 100-118.
  6. Eric Wong & Andrew Tsang & Steven Kong, 2014. "How Does Loan-To-Value Policy Strengthen Banks' Resilience to Property Price Shocks - Evidence from Hong Kong," Working Papers 032014, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
  7. Sumit Agarwal & Itzhak Ben-David & Vincent Yao, 2013. "Collateral Valuation and Borrower Financial Constraints: Evidence from the Residential Real Estate Market," NBER Working Papers 19606, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. International Monetary Fund, 2011. "Policy Instruments to Lean Against the Wind in Latin America," IMF Working Papers 11/159, International Monetary Fund.
  9. Ronel Elul, 2010. "What have we learned about mortgage default?," Business Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, issue Q4, pages 12-19.
  10. Gregory Connor & Thomas Flavin, 2013. "Irish Mortgage Default Optionality," Economics, Finance and Accounting Department Working Paper Series n243-13.pdf, Department of Economics, Finance and Accounting, National University of Ireland - Maynooth.
  11. Michelle White & Wenli Li, 2011. "Residential Mortgage Default and Consumer Bankruptcy: Theory and Empirical Evidence," 2011 Meeting Papers 1038, Society for Economic Dynamics.

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