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The effect of income and collateral constraints on residential mortgage terminations

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  • Archer, Wayne R.
  • Ling, David C.
  • McGill, Gary A.

Abstract

The prepayment behavior of home mortgage borrowers has been widely observed to be inconsistent with behavior implied by classical option theory. A substantial literature has emerged examining the problem, focusing on the characteristics of the mortgage and on the historic path of interest rates in attempting to explain the anomaly. This paper offers contributions to the literature in three respects. First, it explores the influence of household level characteristics upon prepayment behavior, using both householder characteristics and collateral (house) value. Second, it empirically recognizes important interactions between the status of the prepayment option and the influence of income and collateral constraints upon prepayment behavior. Third, it uses a major source of data that has not previously been used in examining the prepayment anomaly: the American Housing Survey. Among the findings are the following: when the household is either collateral constrained or income constrained, or the option is likely to be out of the money, the influence of the option value upon prepayment behavior is less by half. When the status of the option and the influence of potential household constraints are more appropriately recognized, these factors account for nearly all explanatory power otherwise attributable to household demographic characteristics.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Regional Science and Urban Economics.

Volume (Year): 26 (1996)
Issue (Month): 3-4 (June)
Pages: 235-261

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Handle: RePEc:eee:regeco:v:26:y:1996:i:3-4:p:235-261

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  1. Green, Jerry & Shoven, John B, 1986. "The Effects of Interest Rates on Mortgage Prepayments," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 18(1), pages 41-59, February.
  2. Cunningham, Donald F & Capone, Charles A, Jr, 1990. " The Relative Termination Experience of Adjustable to Fixed-Rate Mortgages," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(5), pages 1687-1703, December.
  3. Goodman, John Jr. & Ittner, John B., 1992. "The accuracy of home owners' estimates of house value," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 2(4), pages 339-357, December.
  4. Andrew Caplin & Charles Freeman & Joseph Tracy, 1993. "Collateral Damage: How Refinancing Constraints Exacerbate Regional Recessions," NBER Working Papers 4531, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Chester Foster & Robert Order, 1985. "FHA Terminations: A Prelude to Rational Mortgage Pricing," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 13(3), pages 273-291.
  6. Peter Linneman & Susan Wachter, 1989. "The Impacts of Borrowing Constraints on Homeownership," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 17(4), pages 389-402.
  7. John M. Quigley & Robert Order, 1990. "Efficiency in the Mortgage Market: The Borrower's Perspective," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 18(3), pages 237-252.
  8. Eduardo S. Schwartz & Walter N. Torous, 1993. "Mortgage Prepayment and Default Decisions: A Poisson Regression Approach," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 21(4), pages 431-449.
  9. Quigley, John M, 1987. "Interest Rate Variations, Mortgage Prepayments and Household Mobility," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 69(4), pages 636-43, November.
  10. Wayne R. Archer & David C. Ling, 1993. "Pricing Mortgage-Backed Securities: Integrating Optimal Call and Empirical Models of Prepayment," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 21(4), pages 373-404.
  11. S. Michael Giliberto & David C. Ling, 1992. "An Empirical Investigation of the Contingent-Claims Approach to Pricing Residential Mortgage Debt," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 20(3), pages 393-426.
  12. Schwartz, Eduardo S & Torous, Walter N, 1989. " Prepayment and the Valuation of Mortgage-Backed Securities," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 44(2), pages 375-92, June.
  13. Amy Dickinson & Andrea J. Heuson, 1993. "Explaining Refinancing Decisions Using Microdata," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 21(3), pages 293-311.
  14. Follain, James R & Scott, Louis O & Yang, T L Tyler, 1992. "Microfoundations of a Mortgage Prepayment Function," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 5(2), pages 197-217, June.
  15. Quigley, John M., 2006. "Urban Economics," Berkeley Program on Housing and Urban Policy, Working Paper Series qt0jr0p2tk, Berkeley Program on Housing and Urban Policy.
  16. Capone, Charles A, Jr & Cunningham, Donald F, 1992. "Estimating the Marginal Contribution of Adjustable-Rate Mortgage Selection to Termination Probabilities in a Nested Model," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 5(4), pages 333-56, December.
  17. Peter Chinloy, 1993. "Elective Mortgage Prepayment: Termination and Curtailment," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 21(3), pages 313-332.
  18. Schwartz, Eduardo S & Torous, Walter N, 1992. "Prepayment, Default, and the Valuation of Mortgage Pass-through Securities," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 65(2), pages 221-39, April.
  19. Brueckner, Jan K., 1994. "The Demand for Mortgage Debt: Some Basic Results," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 3(4), pages 251-262, December.
  20. Giliberto, S Michael & Thibodeau, Thomas G, 1989. "Modeling Conventional Residential Mortgage Refinancings," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 2(4), pages 285-99, December.
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Cited by:
  1. Yongheng Deng & Della Zheng & Changfeng Ling, 2005. "An Early Assessment of Residential Mortgage Performance in China," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 31(2), pages 117-136, September.
  2. Agarwal, Sumit & Ambrose, Brent W. & Chomsisengphet, Souphala & Liu, Chunlin, 2006. "An empirical analysis of home equity loan and line performance," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 15(4), pages 444-469, October.
  3. Gary Engelhardt, 2001. "Nominal Loss Aversion, Housing Equity Constraints, and Household Mobility: Evidence from the United States," Center for Policy Research Working Papers 42, Center for Policy Research, Maxwell School, Syracuse University.
  4. Xudong An & Yongheng Deng & Eric Rosenblatt & Vincent Yao, 2012. "Model Stability and the Subprime Mortgage Crisis," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 45(3), pages 545-568, October.
  5. Chintal Desai & Gregory Elliehausen & Jevgenijs Steinbuks, 2013. "Effects of Bankruptcy Exemptions and Foreclosure Laws on Mortgage Default and Foreclosure Rates," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 47(3), pages 391-415, October.
  6. Paul Bennett & Richard Peach & Stavros Peristiani, 1998. "Structural change in the mortgage market and the propensity to refinance," Staff Reports 45, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  7. Xudong An & John Clapp & Yongheng Deng, 2010. "Omitted Mobility Characteristics and Property Market Dynamics: Application to Mortgage Termination," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 41(3), pages 245-271, October.
  8. Marsha J. Courchane & Judith A. Giles, 2002. "A Comparison of U.S. and Canadian Residential Mortgage Markets," Econometrics Working Papers 0201, Department of Economics, University of Victoria.
  9. Patrick Bajari & Chenghuan Sean Chu & Minjung Park, 2008. "An Empirical Model of Subprime Mortgage Default From 2000 to 2007," NBER Working Papers 14625, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Michael LaCour-Little & Gregory H. Chun, 1999. "Third Party Originators and Mortgage Prepayment Risk: An Agency Problem?," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 17(1), pages 55-70.
  11. Valentina Hartarska & Claudio Gonzalez-Vega, 2005. "Credit Counseling and Mortgage Termination by Low-Income Households," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 30(3), pages 227-243, April.
  12. Yongheng Deng & John M. Quigley, 2003. "Woodhead Behavior and the Pricing of Residential Mortgages," Working Paper 8616, USC Lusk Center for Real Estate.
  13. Agarwal, Sumit & Chomsisengphet, Souphala & Hassler, Olivier, 2005. "The impact of the 2001 financial crisis and the economic policy responses on the Argentine mortgage market," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 242-270, September.
  14. Engelhardt, Gary V., 2003. "Nominal loss aversion, housing equity constraints, and household mobility: evidence from the United States," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(1), pages 171-195, January.
  15. John Clapp & Yongheng Deng & Xudong An, 2005. "Unobserved heterogeneity in Models of Competing Mortgage Termination Risks," Working Paper 8585, USC Lusk Center for Real Estate.
  16. Downing, Chris & Stanton, Richard & Wallace, Nancy E., 2003. "An Empirical Test of a Two-Factor Mortgage Valuation Model: How Much Do House Prices Matter?," Research Program in Finance, Working Paper Series qt2qb613r5, Research Program in Finance, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
  17. Chris Downing & Richard Stanton & Nancy Wallace, 2003. "An empirical test of a two-factor mortgage valuation model: how much do house prices matter?," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2003-42, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  18. Archer, Wayne R. & Ling, David C. & McGill, Gary A., 1997. "Demographic versus Option-Driven Mortgage Terminations," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 6(2), pages 137-163, June.
  19. Liang, Te-Hsin & Lin, Jian-Bang, 2014. "A two-stage segment and prediction model for mortgage prepayment prediction and management," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 328-343.
  20. Paul Flatau & Matt Forbes & Patric H. Hendershott, 2003. "Homeownership and Unemployment: The Roles of Leverage and Public Housing," NBER Working Papers 10021, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  21. S. Peristiani & P. Bennett & G. Monsen & R. Peach & J. Raiff, 1996. "Effects of household creditworthiness on mortgage refinancings," Research Paper 9622, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

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