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FHA Terminations: A Prelude to Rational Mortgage Pricing

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  • Chester Foster
  • Robert Order
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    Abstract

    Recent models of pricing mortgages and/or mortgage insurance have used option-pricing models as their framework. The focus is usually on default, which is viewed as a put option (to sell the house to the lender in exchange for the mortgage) and prepayment, which is viewed as a call option (to buy the mortgage from the lender). Analysis then uses techniques like those used to price options in capital markets. Unfortunately, homeowners do not seem to exercise their option as quickly as do traders in organized markets. We estimate prepayment and default functions, which are meant to be a first step in developing modified, option-based models of mortgage pricing. Copyright American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association in its journal Real Estate Economics.

    Volume (Year): 13 (1985)
    Issue (Month): 3 ()
    Pages: 273-291

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    Handle: RePEc:bla:reesec:v:13:y:1985:i:3:p:273-291

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    Cited by:
    1. Paul Carrillo, 2013. "Testing for Fraud in the Residential Mortgage Market: How Much Did Early-Payment-Defaults Overpay for Housing?," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 47(1), pages 36-64, July.
    2. Patrick Bajari & Chenghuan Sean Chu & Minjung Park, 2008. "An Empirical Model of Subprime Mortgage Default From 2000 to 2007," NBER Working Papers 14625, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Terrence Clauretie & Nasser Daneshvary, 2011. "The Optimal Choice for Lenders Facing Defaults: Short Sale, Foreclose, or REO," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 42(4), pages 504-521, May.
    4. Cheng, Ping & Lin, Zhenguo & Liu, Yingchun, 2010. "Illiquidity, transaction cost, and optimal holding period for real estate: Theory and application," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 109-118, June.
    5. Patric H. Hendershott & William R. Schultz, 1993. "Equity and Nonequity Determinants of FHA Single-Family Mortgage Foreclosures in the 1980s," NBER Working Papers 4440, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Xudong An & Yongheng Deng & Eric Rosenblatt & Vincent Yao, 2012. "Model Stability and the Subprime Mortgage Crisis," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 45(3), pages 545-568, October.
    7. Gordon W. Crawford & Eric Rosenblatt, 1995. "Efficient Mortgage Default Option Exercise: Evidence from Loss Severity," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 10(5), pages 543-556.
    8. Wayne Archer & David C. Ling & Gary A. McGill, 1995. "The Effect of Income and Collateral Constraints on Residential Mortgage Terminations," NBER Working Papers 5180, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Richard K. Green & Susan M. Wachter, 2007. "The housing finance revolution," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 21-67.
    10. Yuan Cheng & Xuehui Han, 2013. "Does large volatility help?—stochastic population forecasting technology in explaining real estate price process," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, vol. 26(1), pages 323-356, January.
    11. Danny Ben-Shahar, 2006. "Screening Mortgage Default Risk: A Unified Theoretical Framework," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 28(3), pages 215-240.
    12. Allen C. Goodman & Brent C. Smith, 2010. "Housing default: theory works and so does policy," Working Paper 10-10, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
    13. Deng, Yongheng & Quigley, John M. & Van Order, Robert & Mac, Freddie, 1996. "Mortgage default and low downpayment loans: The costs of public subsidy," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(3-4), pages 263-285, June.
    14. Raven Molloy & Hui Shan, 2011. "The post-foreclosure experience of U.S. households," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2011-32, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    15. Archer, Wayne R. & Ling, David C. & McGill, Gary A., 1997. "Demographic versus Option-Driven Mortgage Terminations," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 6(2), pages 137-163, June.
    16. Goodman, Allen C. & Smith, Brent C., 2010. "Residential mortgage default: Theory works and so does policy," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 280-294, December.
    17. James B. Kau & Thomas M. Springer, 1993. "An Analysis of Financial and Nonfinancial Prepayment of GNMA Securities with a Varying Coefficient Model," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 8(1), pages 69-86.
    18. Terrence M. Clauretie & Mel Jameson, 1995. "Residential Loan Renegotiation: Theory and Evidence," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 10(2), pages 153-162.
    19. Nicholas Sharp & Paul Johnson & David Newton & Peter Duck, 2009. "A New Prepayment Model (with Default): An Occupation-time Derivative Approach," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 39(2), pages 118-145, August.
    20. Nicholas Sharp & David Newton & Peter Duck, 2008. "An Improved Fixed-Rate Mortgage Valuation Methodology with Interacting Prepayment and Default Options," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 36(3), pages 307-342, April.

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