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Mortgage Prepayment and Default Decisions: A Poisson Regression Approach

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  • Eduardo S. Schwartz
  • Walter N. Torous
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    Abstract

    This paper uses an extensive and geographically dispersed sample of single-family fixed rate mortgages to assess the prepayment and default behavior of individual homeowners. We make use of Poisson regression to efficiently estimate the parameters of a proportional hazards model for prepayment and default decisions. Poisson regression for grouped survival data has several advantages over partial likelihood methods. First, when dealing with time-dependent covar-iates, it is considerably more efficient in terms of computations. Second, it is possible to estimate full-hazard models which include, for example, functions of time as well as multiple time scales (i.e., age of the loan and calendar time), in a much more straightforward manner than partial likelihood methods for un-grouped data. Third, Poisson regression can be used to estimate non-proportional hazards models such as additive excess risk specifications. Taken together, our data and estimation methodology allow us to obtain a better understanding of the economic factors underlying prepayment and default decisions. Copyright American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association in its journal Real Estate Economics.

    Volume (Year): 21 (1993)
    Issue (Month): 4 ()
    Pages: 431-449

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    Handle: RePEc:bla:reesec:v:21:y:1993:i:4:p:431-449

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    Cited by:
    1. Eddie Lam, 2002. "A Risk Management Model for MBS Issuers," International Real Estate Review, Asian Real Estate Society, vol. 5(1), pages 169-195.
    2. Longstaff, Francis A., 2002. "Optimal Recursive Refinancing and the Valuation of Mortgage-Backed Securities," University of California at Los Angeles, Anderson Graduate School of Management qt19k7479t, Anderson Graduate School of Management, UCLA.
    3. Francisco J. Ledesma & Manuel Navarro & Jorge V., 2003. "Return to Tourist Destination. Is it Reputation, After All?," Working Papers 03-01, Asociación Española de Economía y Finanzas Internacionales.
    4. Archer, Wayne R. & Ling, David C. & McGill, Gary A., 1997. "Demographic versus Option-Driven Mortgage Terminations," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 6(2), pages 137-163, June.
    5. Archer, Wayne R. & Ling, David C. & McGill, Gary A., 1996. "The effect of income and collateral constraints on residential mortgage terminations," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(3-4), pages 235-261, June.
    6. Francis A. Longstaff, 2004. "Optimal Recursive Refinancing and the Valuation of Mortgage-Backed Securities," NBER Working Papers 10422, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Haughwout, Andrew & Peach, Richard & Tracy, Joseph, 2008. "Juvenile delinquent mortgages: Bad credit or bad economy?," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(2), pages 246-257, September.
    8. Jean Helwege & Christo Pirinsky & René M. Stulz, 2005. "Why Do Firms Become Widely Held? An Analysis of the ynamics of Corporate Ownership," NBER Working Papers 11505, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Sumit Agarwal & Richard J. Rosen & Vincent Yao, 2013. "Why do borrowers make mortgage refinancing mistakes?," Working Paper Series WP-2013-02, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    10. Hall, Arden, 2000. "Controlling for Burnout in Estimating Mortgage Prepayment Models," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(4), pages 215-232, December.
    11. Paul S. Calem & Michael LaCour-Little, 2001. "Risk-based capital requirements for mortgage loans," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2001-60, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    12. Michael LaCour-Little & Michael Marschoun & Clark L. Maxam, 2002. "Improving Parametric Mortgage Prepayment Models with Non-parametric Kernel Regression," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 24(3), pages 299-328.
    13. Harding, John P., 2000. "Mortgage Valuation with Optimal Intertemporal Refinancing Strategies," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(4), pages 233-266, December.
    14. Wayne Archer & David C. Ling & Gary A. McGill, 1995. "The Effect of Income and Collateral Constraints on Residential Mortgage Terminations," NBER Working Papers 5180, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Tsai, Ming-Shann & Liao, Szu-Lang & Chiang, Shu-Ling, 2009. "Analyzing yield, duration and convexity of mortgage loans under prepayment and default risks," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 92-103, June.
    16. Seow Ong & Tien Sing & Alan Teo, 2007. "Delinquency and Default in Arms: The Effects of Protected Equity and Loss Aversion," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 35(3), pages 253-280, October.
    17. Toru Sugimura, 2004. "Valuation of Residential Mortgage-Backed Securities with Default Risk Using an Intensity-Based Approach," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer, vol. 11(2), pages 185-214, June.
    18. Timothée Papin & Gabriel Turinici, 2012. "Prepayment option of a perpetual corporate loan: the impact of funding costs," Working Papers hal-00768571, HAL.
    19. Andrey Pavlov & George Blazenko, 2005. "The Neighborhood Effect of Real Estate Maintenance," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 30(4), pages 327-340, June.
    20. Nicholas Sharp & Paul Johnson & David Newton & Peter Duck, 2009. "A New Prepayment Model (with Default): An Occupation-time Derivative Approach," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 39(2), pages 118-145, August.

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