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An Early Assessment of Residential Mortgage Performance in China

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  • Yongheng Deng

    ()

  • Della Zheng

    ()

  • Changfeng Ling

    ()

Abstract

The residential mortgage market becomes a financial engine for the booming residential housing development and sustained economic growth in China. Our study provides the first rigorous empirical analysis on the earlier performance of residential mortgage market in China based on a unique micro dataset of mortgage loan history collected from a major residential mortgage lender in China. We found that while the option theory fails to explain prepayment and default behavior in the residential mortgage market in China, other non-option theory related financial economic factors play major roles in determining the prepayment and default risks in China. We also found that borrower’s characteristics are significant in determining prepayment behavior, hence may be used as an effective tool for screening potential high risk borrowers in the loan origination process. Adopting a risk-based pricing in residential mortgage lending in China can improve the efficiency of the market, and enhance the credit availability to the most needed households, i.e., the younger households, blue-collar workers, lower income households, and help them become homeowners. Copyright Springer Science + Business Media, Inc. 2005

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File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s11146-005-1368-7
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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Springer in its journal The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics.

Volume (Year): 31 (2005)
Issue (Month): 2 (September)
Pages: 117-136

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Handle: RePEc:kap:jrefec:v:31:y:2005:i:2:p:117-136

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Web page: http://www.springerlink.com/link.asp?id=102945

Related research

Keywords: Chinese mortgage market; prepayment and default; empirical hazard model; econometric analysis;

References

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  1. Patric H. Hendershott & Robert Van Order, 1987. "Pricing Mortgages: An Interpretation of the Models and Results," NBER Working Papers 2290, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Quigley, John M., 2006. "Urban Economics," Berkeley Program on Housing and Urban Policy, Working Paper Series, Berkeley Program on Housing and Urban Policy qt0jr0p2tk, Berkeley Program on Housing and Urban Policy.
  3. Archer, Wayne R. & Ling, David C. & McGill, Gary A., 1996. "The effect of income and collateral constraints on residential mortgage terminations," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(3-4), pages 235-261, June.
  4. Jerry Green & John B. Shoven, 1983. "The Effects of Interest Rates on Mortgage Prepayments," NBER Working Papers 1246, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Deng, Yongheng & Quigley, John M. & Van Order, Robert, 1999. "Mortgage Terminations, Heterogeneity, and the Exercise of Mortgage Options," Berkeley Program on Housing and Urban Policy, Working Paper Series, Berkeley Program on Housing and Urban Policy qt96r560pg, Berkeley Program on Housing and Urban Policy.
  6. Calhoun, Charles A & Deng, Yongheng, 2002. "A Dynamic Analysis of Fixed- and Adjustable-Rate Mortgage Terminations," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, Springer, vol. 24(1-2), pages 9-33, Jan.-Marc.
  7. Michael J. Brennan & Eduardo S. Schwartz, 1985. "Determinants of GNMA Mortgage Prices," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 13(3), pages 209-228.
  8. Stephen A. Buser & Patric H. Hendershott & Anthony B. Sanders, 1984. "Pricing Rate Caps on Default-Free Adjustable-Rate Mortgages," NBER Working Papers 1525, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. James B. Kau & Donald C. Keenan & Walter J. Muller & James F. Epperson, 1990. "The Valuation and Analysis of Adjustable Rate Mortgages," Management Science, INFORMS, INFORMS, vol. 36(12), pages 1417-1431, December.
  10. Black, Fischer & Scholes, Myron S, 1973. "The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 637-54, May-June.
  11. Deng, Yongheng, 1997. "Mortgage Termination: An Empirical Hazard Model with a Stochastic Term Structure," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, Springer, vol. 14(3), pages 309-31, May.
  12. Deng, Yongheng & Quigley, John M. & Van Order, Robert & Mac, Freddie, 1996. "Mortgage default and low downpayment loans: The costs of public subsidy," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(3-4), pages 263-285, June.
  13. Quigley, John M, 1987. "Interest Rate Variations, Mortgage Prepayments and Household Mobility," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 69(4), pages 636-43, November.
  14. Richard Stanton & Nancy Wallace, 1995. "ARM Wrestling: Valuing Adjustable Rate Mortgages Indexed to the Eleventh District Cost of Funds," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 23(3), pages 311-345.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Kenneth K. Chow & Matthew S. Yiu & Charles Ka Yui Leung & Dickson C. Tam, 2008. "Does the DiPasquale-Wheaton Model Explain the House Price Dynamics in China Cities?," Working Papers 212008, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
  2. Liang, Te-Hsin & Lin, Jian-Bang, 2014. "A two-stage segment and prediction model for mortgage prepayment prediction and management," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 328-343.
  3. Zheng, Siqi & Wu, Jing & Kahn, Matthew E. & Deng, Yongheng, 2012. "The nascent market for “green” real estate in Beijing," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 56(5), pages 974-984.
  4. Bardhan, Ashok Deo & Kroll, Cynthia A., 2007. "Globalization and Real Estate: Issues, Implications, Opportunities," Fisher Center for Real Estate & Urban Economics, Research Reports, Fisher Center for Real Estate & Urban Economics, UC Berkeley qt8fm5j003, Fisher Center for Real Estate & Urban Economics, UC Berkeley.
  5. Agarwal, Sumit & Chomsisengphet, Souphala & Hassler, Olivier, 2005. "The impact of the 2001 financial crisis and the economic policy responses on the Argentine mortgage market," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 242-270, September.
  6. Wenjie Wu, 2012. "Does Public Investment Spur the Land Market?: Evidence from Transport Improvement in Beijing," SERC Discussion Papers 0116, Spatial Economics Research Centre, LSE.
  7. Yongheng Deng & Peng Liu, 2009. "Mortgage Prepayment and Default Behavior with Embedded Forward Contract Risks in China’s Housing Market," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, Springer, vol. 38(3), pages 214-240, April.
  8. Leung, Charles Ka Yui & Chow, Kenneth & Yiu, Matthew & Tam, Dickson, 2010. "House Market in Chinese Cities: Dynamic Modeling, In-Sampling Fitting and Out-of-Sample Forecasting," MPRA Paper 27367, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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