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An Early Assessment of Residential Mortgage Performance in China

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Author Info
Yongheng Deng ()
Della Zheng ()
Changfeng Ling ()
Abstract

The residential mortgage market becomes a financial engine for the booming residential housing development and sustained economic growth in China. Our study provides the first rigorous empirical analysis on the earlier performance of residential mortgage market in China based on a unique micro dataset of mortgage loan history collected from a major residential mortgage lender in China. We found that while the option theory fails to explain prepayment and default behavior in the residential mortgage market in China, other non-option theory related financial economic factors play major roles in determining the prepayment and default risks in China. We also found that borrower’s characteristics are significant in determining prepayment behavior, hence may be used as an effective tool for screening potential high risk borrowers in the loan origination process. Adopting a risk-based pricing in residential mortgage lending in China can improve the efficiency of the market, and enhance the credit availability to the most needed households, i.e., the younger households, blue-collar workers, lower income households, and help them become homeowners. Copyright Springer Science + Business Media, Inc. 2005

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File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s11146-005-1368-7
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Publisher Info
Article provided by Springer in its journal The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics.

Volume (Year): 31 (2005)
Issue (Month): 2 (September)
Pages: 117-136
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Handle: RePEc:kap:jrefec:v:31:y:2005:i:2:p:117-136

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Web page: http://www.springerlink.com/link.asp?id=102945

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its listing, contact: (Christopher F. Baum).

Related research
Keywords: Chinese mortgage market; prepayment and default; empirical hazard model; econometric analysis;

References listed on IDEAS
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  1. Calhoun, Charles A & Deng, Yongheng, 2002. "A Dynamic Analysis of Fixed- and Adjustable-Rate Mortgage Terminations," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 24(1-2), pages 9-33, Jan.-Marc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Green, Jerry & Shoven, John B, 1986. "The Effects of Interest Rates on Mortgage Prepayments," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 18(1), pages 41-59, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Robert C. Merton, 1973. "Theory of Rational Option Pricing," Bell Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 4(1), pages 141-183, Spring. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Black, Fischer & Scholes, Myron S, 1973. "The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 637-54, May-June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Deng, Yongheng, 1997. "Mortgage Termination: An Empirical Hazard Model with a Stochastic Term Structure," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 14(3), pages 309-31, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Michael J. Brennan & Eduardo S. Schwartz, 1985. "Determinants of GNMA Mortgage Prices," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 13(3), pages 209-228. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Deng, Yongheng & Quigley, John M. & Van Order, Robert & Mac, Freddie, 1996. "Mortgage default and low downpayment loans: The costs of public subsidy," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(3-4), pages 263-285, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Richard Stanton & Nancy Wallace, 1995. "ARM Wrestling: Valuing Adjustable Rate Mortgages Indexed to the Eleventh District Cost of Funds," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 23(3), pages 311-345. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Archer, Wayne R. & Ling, David C. & McGill, Gary A., 1996. "The effect of income and collateral constraints on residential mortgage terminations," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(3-4), pages 235-261, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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