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An economic framework for forecasting land-use and ecosystem change

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  • Lewis, David J.
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    Abstract

    This paper develops a joint econometric-simulation framework to forecast detailed empirical distributions of the spatial pattern of land-use and ecosystem change. In-sample and out-of-sample forecasting tests are used to examine the performance of the parcel-scale econometric and simulation models, and the importance of multiple forecasting challenges is assessed. The econometric-simulation method is integrated with an ecological model to generate forecasts of the probability of localized extinctions of an amphibian species. The paper demonstrates the potential of integrating economic and ecological models to generate ecological forecasts in the presence of alternative market conditions and land-use policy constraints.

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    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/B6VFJ-4XVC4MR-1/2/e9f8ad0d7a28218a782ada7a276c06f7
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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Resource and Energy Economics.

    Volume (Year): 32 (2010)
    Issue (Month): 2 (April)
    Pages: 98-116

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    Handle: RePEc:eee:resene:v:32:y:2010:i:2:p:98-116

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    Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/505569

    Related research

    Keywords: Spatial modeling Biodiversity conservation Land-use Landscape forecasting Shoreline development;

    References

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    1. Costello, Christopher & Polasky, Stephen, 2004. "Dynamic reserve site selection," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 157-174, June.
    2. Adina M. Merenlender, 2006. "Habitat and Open Space at Risk of Land-Use Conversion: Targeting Strategies for Land Conservation," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 88(1), pages 28-42.
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    8. Carmen Carri�n-Flores & Elena G. Irwin, 2004. "Determinants of Residential Land-Use Conversion and Sprawl at the Rural-Urban Fringe," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 86(4), pages 889-904.
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    16. Gerald C. Nelson & Daniel Hellerstein, 1997. "Do Roads Cause Deforestation? Using Satellite Images in Econometric Analysis of Land Use," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 79(1), pages 80-88.
    17. Armsworth, Paul R. & Kendall, Bruce E. & Davis, Frank W., 2004. "An introduction to biodiversity concepts for environmental economists," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 115-136, June.
    18. Provencher, Bill & Bishop, R.C.Richard C., 2004. "Does accounting for preference heterogeneity improve the forecasting of a random utility model? A case study," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 48(1), pages 793-810, July.
    19. Walls, Margaret & McConnell, Virginia & Kopits, Elizabeth, 2005. "Zoning, TDRs, and the Density of Development," Discussion Papers dp-05-32, Resources For the Future.
    20. Gerald C. Nelson & GVirginia Harris & Steven W. Stone, 2001. "Deforestation, Land Use, and Property Rights: Empirical Evidence from Darién, Panama," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 77(2), pages 187-205.
    21. Krinsky, Itzhak & Robb, A Leslie, 1986. "On Approximating the Statistical Properties of Elasticities," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 68(4), pages 715-19, November.
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    Cited by:
    1. Elena G. Irwin, 2010. "New Directions For Urban Economic Models Of Land Use Change: Incorporating Spatial Dynamics And Heterogeneity," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 50(1), pages 65-91.

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