Determinants of land use changes: a spatial multinomial probit approach
AbstractChanges in land use patterns impact significantly environmental conditions as well as economic and social welfare. These changes are influenced by socio-economic as well as pedo-climatic factors. A good understanding of how these factors influence land use patterns would provide new dimensions to policy making and public policy evaluation. To this end, we propose a Spatial Multinomial Probit model to examine the determinants of land use change, at the parcel level, in the French D´epartement du Rhones from 1992 to 2003. It is based on an economic model that assumes that landowners have a choice between 4 land use categories for a given parcel at a given date: (1) agricultural, (2) forest, (3) urban and (4) no use. Each landowner compares costs and benefits associated with each parcel and each class and chooses the optimal land use to maximize his/her profit. We propose a Spatial Multinomial Probit model that allows for covariates and spatial dependence, and we use these features to explore the relative importance of factors that drive landowners to choose a specific land use category. Our findings suggest the presence of spatial patterns, implying that the decision to choose land use for a given parcel of land is strongly influenced by nonobserved factors in neighboring parcels. Moreover, results confirm that interdependencies among land use alternatives, accounted for in the spatial multinomial probit model by the correlation structure, are required for the estimation of land use decision.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by University of Cincinnati, Department of Economics in its series University of Cincinnati, Economics Working Papers Series with number 2008-06.
Length: 20 pages
Date of creation: 2008
Date of revision:
Other versions of this item:
- Raja Chakir & Olivier Parent, 2009. "Determinants of land use changes: A spatial multinomial probit approach," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 88(2), pages 327-344, 06.
- NEP-AGR-2008-09-13 (Agricultural Economics)
- NEP-ALL-2008-09-13 (All new papers)
- NEP-DCM-2008-09-13 (Discrete Choice Models)
- NEP-GEO-2008-09-13 (Economic Geography)
- NEP-URE-2008-09-13 (Urban & Real Estate Economics)
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- Michael Brady & Elena Irwin, 2011. "Accounting for Spatial Effects in Economic Models of Land Use: Recent Developments and Challenges Ahead," Environmental & Resource Economics, European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 48(3), pages 487-509, March.
- P. Amaral & L. Anselin, 2011. "Finite Sample Properties of Moran's I Test for Spatial Autocorrelation in Probit and Tobit Models - Empirical Evidence," GeoDa Center Working Papers 1048, GeoDa Center for Geospatial Analysis and Computation.
- Manuel Ruiz & Fernando López & Antonio Páez, 2010. "Testing for spatial association of qualitative data using symbolic dynamics," Journal of Geographical Systems, Springer, vol. 12(3), pages 281-309, September.
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