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Modeling and Managing Urban Growth at the Rural-Urban Fringe: A Parcel-Level Model of Residential Land Use Change

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Author Info

  • Irwin, Elena G.
  • Bell, Kathleen P.
  • Geoghegan, Jacqueline

Abstract

As many local and state governments in the United States grapple with increasing growth pressures, the need to understand the economic and institutional factors underlying these pressures has taken on added urgency. From an economic perspective, individual land use decisions play a central role in the manifestation of growth pressures, as changes in land use pattern are the cumulative result of numerous individual decisions regarding the use of lands. In this study, the issue of growth management is addressed by developing a spatially disaggregated, microeconomic model of land conversion decisions suitable for describing residential land use change at the rural-urban fringe. The model employs parcel-level data on land use in Calvert County, Maryland, a rapidly growing rural-urban fringe county. A probabilistic model of residential land use change is estimated using a duration model, and the parameter estimates are employed to simulate possible future growth scenarios under alternative growth management scenarios. Results suggest that "smart growth" objectives are best met when policies aimed at concentrating growth in target areas are implemented in tandem with policies designed to preserve rural or open space lands.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Northeastern Agricultural and Resource Economics Association in its journal Agricultural and Resource Economics Review.

Volume (Year): 32 (2003)
Issue (Month): 1 (April)
Pages:

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Handle: RePEc:ags:arerjl:31341

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Web page: http://www.narea.org/
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Related research

Keywords: Land Economics/Use;

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Geoghegan, Jacqueline & Hewitt, Julie A. & Vance, Colin, 2003. "Time Series Analysis Of Satellite Data: Deforestation In Southern Mexico," 2003 Annual meeting, July 27-30, Montreal, Canada 22123, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
  2. Newburn, David A. & Berck, Peter, 2006. "Modeling Suburban and Rural-Residential Development Beyond the Urban Fringe," Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, UC Berkeley, Working Paper Series qt8wr0b78r, Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, UC Berkeley.
  3. Bell, Kathleen P. & Dalton, Timothy J., 2006. "Spatial Economic Analysis in Data-Rich Environments," 2006 Annual Meeting, August 12-18, 2006, Queensland, Australia 25241, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
  4. Wu, JunJie & Cho, Seong-Hoon, 2007. "The effect of local land use regulations on urban development in the Western United States," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 69-86, January.
  5. Newburn, David A. & Berck, Peter, 2011. "Growth Management Policies for Exurban and Suburban Development: Theory and an Application to Sonoma County, California," Agricultural and Resource Economics Review, Northeastern Agricultural and Resource Economics Association, vol. 40(3), December.
  6. Cho, Seong-Hoon & Newman, David H., 2005. "Spatial analysis of rural land development," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(5), pages 732-744, August.
  7. Cho, Seong-Hoon & Kim, Heeho & Roberts, Roland K. & Kim, Taeyoung & Lee, Daegoon, 2014. "Effects of changes in forestland ownership on deforestation and urbanization and the resulting effects on greenhouse gas emissions," Journal of Forest Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 93-109.
  8. Bell, Kathleen P. & Kline, Jeffrey D., 2009. "Assessing Patterns in the Conversion of Rural Lands to Residential Use," 2009 Annual Meeting, July 26-28, 2009, Milwaukee, Wisconsin 49530, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
  9. Newburn, David A. & Berck, Peter & Merenlender, Adina, 2005. "Habitat and open space at risk and the prioritization of conservation easements," 2005 Annual meeting, July 24-27, Providence, RI 19345, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
  10. Caviglia-Harris, Jill L. & Harris, Daniel, 2011. "The Impact of Settlement Design on Tropical Deforestation Rates and Resulting Land Cover Patterns," Agricultural and Resource Economics Review, Northeastern Agricultural and Resource Economics Association, vol. 40(3), December.
  11. Seong-Hoon Cho & Dayton Lambert & Seung Kim & Roland Roberts & William Park, 2011. "Relationship between value of open space and distance from housing locations within a community," Journal of Geographical Systems, Springer, vol. 13(4), pages 393-414, December.
  12. Gottlieb, Paul D. & O'Donnell, Anthony & Rudel, Thomas & O'Neill, Karen & McDermott, Melanie, 2009. "The impact of large-lot zoning and open space acquisition on home building in rural communities," 2009 Annual Meeting, July 26-28, 2009, Milwaukee, Wisconsin 49310, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
  13. Cho, Seong-Hoon & Kim, Seung Gyu & Roberts, Roland K., 2009. "Measuring the Effects of a Land Value Tax on Land Development," 2009 Annual Meeting, January 31-February 3, 2009, Atlanta, Georgia 46760, Southern Agricultural Economics Association.
  14. Richard Iovanna & Colin Vance, 2013. "Land conversion and market equilibrium: insights from a simulated landscape," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer, vol. 50(1), pages 169-184, February.
  15. Chakir, Raja & Le Gallo, Julie, 2013. "Predicting land use allocation in France: A spatial panel data analysis," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 114-125.
  16. Lynch, Lori & Duke, Joshua M., 2007. "Economic Benefits of Farmland Preservation: Evidence from the United States," Working Papers 7342, University of Maryland, Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics.
  17. Padeiro, Miguel, 2014. "The influence of transport infrastructures on land-use conversion decisions within municipal plans," The Journal of Transport and Land Use, Center for Transportation Studies, University of Minnesota, vol. 7(1), pages 79-93.

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