IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/jeeman/v81y2017icp19-37.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Does the conservation of land reduce development? An econometric-based landscape simulation with land market feedbacks

Author

Listed:
  • Zipp, Katherine Y.
  • Lewis, David J.
  • Provencher, Bill

Abstract

We use an econometrically-based landscape simulation to investigate the effect of conservation on the net change in local development – the amount of land directly protected from development minus the amount of development that may occur on neighboring unprotected private land in response to conservation. First, we use spatial-panel data from Wisconsin to estimate parcel-level subdivision probabilities and density expectations, controlling for the endogenous location of open space. Second, we use these subdivision probabilities and density expectations in a landscape simulation model. Our simulation results indicate that 57% of conserved open space created between 1978 and 2009 generated close to zero net change in local development. This suggests that conserved open space mostly reallocated development in a small neighborhood (in a half-mile radius) rather than altering the total amount of development. We explore the landscape conditions that may lead to conservation having either a positive or negative effect on local development.

Suggested Citation

  • Zipp, Katherine Y. & Lewis, David J. & Provencher, Bill, 2017. "Does the conservation of land reduce development? An econometric-based landscape simulation with land market feedbacks," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 19-37.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jeeman:v:81:y:2017:i:c:p:19-37
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jeem.2016.08.006
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0095069616302054
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.jeem.2016.08.006?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Lewis, David J. & Provencher, Bill & Butsic, Van, 2009. "The dynamic effects of open-space conservation policies on residential development density," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 57(3), pages 239-252, May.
    2. Paul Thorsnes, 2002. "The Value of a Suburban Forest Preserve: Estimates from Sales of Vacant Residential Building Lots," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 78(3), pages 426-441.
    3. David J. Lewis & Andrew J. Plantinga, 2007. "Policies for Habitat Fragmentation: Combining Econometrics with GIS-Based Landscape Simulations," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 83(2), pages 109-127.
    4. Wallace, Nancy E., 1988. "The market effects of zoning undeveloped land: Does zoning follow the market?," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 307-326, May.
    5. Papke, Leslie E. & Wooldridge, Jeffrey M., 2008. "Panel data methods for fractional response variables with an application to test pass rates," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 145(1-2), pages 121-133, July.
    6. Jeffrey M Wooldridge, 2010. "Econometric Analysis of Cross Section and Panel Data," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 2, volume 1, number 0262232588, December.
    7. Seong-Hoon Cho & Dayton M. Lambert & Roland K. Roberts & Seung Gyu Kim, 2010. "Moderating urban sprawl: is there a balance between shared open space and housing parcel size?," Journal of Economic Geography, Oxford University Press, vol. 10(5), pages 763-783, September.
    8. Allen Klaiber, H. & Phaneuf, Daniel J., 2010. "Valuing open space in a residential sorting model of the Twin Cities," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 60(2), pages 57-77, September.
    9. Walsh, Randy, 2007. "Endogenous open space amenities in a locational equilibrium," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(2), pages 319-344, March.
    10. Joshua D. Angrist & Jörn-Steffen Pischke, 2009. "Mostly Harmless Econometrics: An Empiricist's Companion," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 8769.
    11. Bucholtz, Shawn & Geoghegan, Jacqueline & Lynch, Lori, 2003. "Capitalization of Open Spaces into Housing Values and the Residential Property Tax Revenue Impacts of Agricultural Easement Programs," Agricultural and Resource Economics Review, Northeastern Agricultural and Resource Economics Association, vol. 32(1), pages 1-13, April.
    12. David A. Newburn & Peter Berck, 2006. "Modeling Suburban and Rural-Residential Development Beyond the Urban Fringe," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 82(4), pages 481-499.
    13. Dempsey, Judith A. & Plantinga, Andrew J., 2013. "How well do urban growth boundaries contain development? Results for Oregon using a difference-in-difference estimator," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(6), pages 996-1007.
    14. Christopher Timmins & Wolfram Schlenker, 2009. "Reduced-Form Versus Structural Modeling in Environmental and Resource Economics," Annual Review of Resource Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 1(1), pages 351-380, September.
    15. Carrión-Flores, Carmen & Irwin, Elena G., 2010. "Identifying spatial interactions in the presence of spatial error autocorrelation: An application to land use spillovers," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 135-153, April.
    16. Van Butsic & David J. Lewis & Lindsay Ludwig, 2011. "An Econometric Analysis of Land Development with Endogenous Zoning," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 87(3), pages 412-432.
    17. Abbott, Joshua K. & Klaiber, H. Allen, 2010. "Is all space created equal? Uncovering the relationship between competing land uses in subdivisions," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(2), pages 296-307, December.
    18. Capozza, Dennis R. & Helsley, Robert W., 1989. "The fundamentals of land prices and urban growth," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 295-306, November.
    19. Nancy E. Bockstael, 1996. "Modeling Economics and Ecology: The Importance of a Spatial Perspective," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 78(5), pages 1168-1180.
    20. Wu, JunJie & Plantinga, Andrew J., 2003. "The influence of public open space on urban spatial structure," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 46(2), pages 288-309, September.
    21. Elizabeth Kopits & Virginia McConnell & Margaret Walls, 2007. "The Trade-off between Private Lots and Public Open Space in Subdivisions at the Urban-Rural Fringe," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 89(5), pages 1191-1197.
    22. Elena G. Irwin, 2002. "The Effects of Open Space on Residential Property Values," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 78(4), pages 465-480.
    23. Irwin, Elena G. & Bockstael, Nancy E., 2004. "Land use externalities, open space preservation, and urban sprawl," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(6), pages 705-725, November.
    24. Gary Chamberlain, 1980. "Analysis of Covariance with Qualitative Data," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 47(1), pages 225-238.
    25. Heckman, James, 2013. "Sample selection bias as a specification error," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 31(3), pages 129-137.
    26. Elena G. Irwin & Nancy E. Bockstael, 2001. "The Problem of Identifying Land Use Spillovers: Measuring the Effects of Open Space on Residential Property Values," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 83(3), pages 698-704.
    27. Cheshire, Paul & Sheppard, Stephen, 1995. "On the Price of Land and the Value of Amenities," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 62(246), pages 247-267, May.
    28. Nancy Bockstael, 2008. "An Empirical Examination of the Timing of Land Conversions in the Presence of Farmland Preservation Programs," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 90(3), pages 613-626.
    29. David A. Newburn & Peter Berck, 2006. "Modeling Suburban and Rural-Residential Development Beyond the Urban Fringe," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 82(4), pages 481-499.
    30. Acharya, Gayatri & Bennett, Lynne Lewis, 2001. "Valuing Open Space and Land-Use Patterns in Urban Watersheds," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 22(2-3), pages 221-237, March-May.
    31. Gerald C. Nelson & GVirginia Harris & Steven W. Stone, 2001. "Deforestation, Land Use, and Property Rights: Empirical Evidence from Darién, Panama," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 77(2), pages 187-205.
    32. Anderson, Soren T. & West, Sarah E., 2006. "Open space, residential property values, and spatial context," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(6), pages 773-789, November.
    33. Tyrvainen, Liisa & Miettinen, Antti, 2000. "Property Prices and Urban Forest Amenities," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 205-223, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Gluszak, Michal & Zygmunt, Robert, 2018. "Development density, administrative decisions, and land values: An empirical investigation," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 153-161.
    2. Bigelow, Daniel & Borchers, Allison, 2017. "Major Uses of Land in the United States, 2012," Economic Information Bulletin 263079, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    3. Wang, Haoluan, 2017. "Land Conservation for Open Space: The Impact of Neighbors and the Natural Environment," 2017 Annual Meeting, July 30-August 1, Chicago, Illinois 258125, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    4. Yong Chen & David J. Lewis & Bruce Weber, 2021. "Natural amenities and skill sorting in rural communities: a case study of land conservation policy," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 67(3), pages 649-669, December.
    5. Reisig, Dawson & Mullan, Katrina & Hansen, Andrew & Powell, Scott & Theobald, David & Ulrich, Rachel, 2021. "Natural amenities and low-density residential development: Magnitude and spatial scale of influences," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
    6. Yong Chen & David J. Lewis & Bruce Weber, 2016. "Conservation Land Amenities And Regional Economies: A Postmatching Difference-In-Differences Analysis Of The Northwest Forest Plan," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 56(3), pages 373-394, June.
    7. Jacek Batóg & Iwona Foryś & Radosław Gaca & Michał Głuszak & Jan Konowalczuk, 2019. "Investigating the Impact of Airport Noise and Land Use Restrictions on House Prices: Evidence from Selected Regional Airports in Poland," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(2), pages 1-18, January.
    8. Arora, Gaurav & Feng, Hongli & Hennessy, David A. & Loesch, Charles R. & Kvas, Susan, 2021. "The impact of production network economies on spatially-contiguous conservation– Theoretical model with evidence from the U.S. Prairie Pothole Region," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 107(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Elena G. Irwin, 2010. "New Directions For Urban Economic Models Of Land Use Change: Incorporating Spatial Dynamics And Heterogeneity," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 50(1), pages 65-91, February.
    2. JunJie Wu & Wenchao Xu & Ralph Alig, 2016. "How Do the Location, Size and Budget of Open Space Conservation Affect Land Values?," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 52(1), pages 73-97, January.
    3. Ferris, Jeffrey & David, Newburn, 2014. "Residential Development And The Effect Of Forest Conservation Policy," 2014 Annual Meeting, July 27-29, 2014, Minneapolis, Minnesota 170337, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    4. Waltert, Fabian & Schläpfer, Felix, 2010. "Landscape amenities and local development: A review of migration, regional economic and hedonic pricing studies," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(2), pages 141-152, December.
    5. Maria A. Cunha‐e‐Sá & Sofia F. Franco, 2017. "The Effects of Development Constraints on Forest Management at the Urban‐Forest Interface," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 99(3), pages 614-636, April.
    6. Wrenn, Douglas H. & Klaiber, Allen & Newburn, David, 2017. "Price-Based Policies for Managing Residential Land Development: Impacts on Water Quality," 2017 Annual Meeting, July 30-August 1, Chicago, Illinois 258578, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    7. Douglas H. Wrenn & H. Allen Klaiber & David A. Newburn, 2017. "Confronting Price Endogeneity in a Duration Model of Residential Subdivision Development," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(3), pages 661-682, April.
    8. Black, Katie Jo, 2018. "Wide open spaces: Estimating the willingness to pay for adjacent preserved open space," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 110-121.
    9. Carmen Carrión-Flores & Elena G. Irwin, 2017. "A fixed effects logit model of rural land conversion and zoning," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 58(1), pages 181-208, January.
    10. Lewis, David J. & Provencher, Bill & Butsic, Van, 2009. "The dynamic effects of open-space conservation policies on residential development density," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 57(3), pages 239-252, May.
    11. Wrenn, Douglas H. & Klaiber, Allen & Newburn, David, 2018. "Price Based Policies for Managing Residential Development and Impacts on Water Quality," 2018 Annual Meeting, August 5-7, Washington, D.C. 274029, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    12. Seong-Hoon Cho & Christopher D. Clark & William M. Park & Seung Gyu Kim, 2009. "Spatial and Temporal Variation in the Housing Market Values of Lot Size and Open Space," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 85(1), pages 51-73.
    13. Wrenn, Douglas H. & Klaiber, H. Allen & Newburn, David A., 2019. "Price based policies for managing residential development: Impacts on water quality," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    14. Wu, JunJie, 2014. "Public open-space conservation under a budget constraint," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 96-101.
    15. Abbott, Joshua K. & Klaiber, H. Allen, 2010. "Is all space created equal? Uncovering the relationship between competing land uses in subdivisions," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(2), pages 296-307, December.
    16. Caruso, Geoffrey & Peeters, Dominique & Cavailhes, Jean & Rounsevell, Mark, 2007. "Spatial configurations in a periurban city. A cellular automata-based microeconomic model," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(5), pages 542-567, September.
    17. Kathleen P. Bell & Timothy J. Dalton, 2007. "Spatial Economic Analysis in Data‐Rich Environments," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 58(3), pages 487-501, September.
    18. Guillaume POUYANNE & Frederic GASCHET, 2013. "The Effect Of Current And Future Land Use On House Prices," ERSA conference papers ersa13p249, European Regional Science Association.
    19. Van Butsic & David J. Lewis & Lindsay Ludwig, 2011. "An Econometric Analysis of Land Development with Endogenous Zoning," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 87(3), pages 412-432.
    20. Lichtenberg, Erik, 2011. "Open Space and Urban Sprawl: The Effects of Zoning and Forest Conservation Regulations in Maryland," Agricultural and Resource Economics Review, Northeastern Agricultural and Resource Economics Association, vol. 40(3), pages 1-12, December.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jeeman:v:81:y:2017:i:c:p:19-37. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/622870 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.