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Roads, Land Use, and Deforestation: A Spatial Model Applied to Belize

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Author Info
Chomitz, Kenneth M
Gray, David A
Abstract

Rural roads promote economic development, but they also facilitate deforestation. To explore this tradeoff, this article develops a spatially explicit model of land use and estimates probabilities of alternative land uses as a function of land characteristics and distance to market using a multinomial logit specification of this model. Controls are incorporated for the endogeneity of road placement. The model is applied to data for southern Belize, an area experiencing rapid expansion of both subsistence and commercial agriculture using geographic information system (GIS) techniques to select sample points at 1-kilometer intervals. Market access, land quality, and tenure status affect the probability of agricultural land use synergistically, having differential effects on the likelihood of commercial versus semisubsistence farming. The results suggest that road building in areas with agriculturally poor soils and low population densities may be a "lose-lose" proposition, causing habitat fragmentation and providing low economic returns. Copyright 1996 by Oxford University Press.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by Oxford University Press in its journal World Bank Economic Review.

Volume (Year): 10 (1996)
Issue (Month): 3 (September)
Pages: 487-512
Download reference. The following formats are available: HTML (with abstract), plain text (with abstract), BibTeX, RIS (EndNote, RefMan, ProCite), ReDIF
Handle: RePEc:oup:wbecrv:v:10:y:1996:i:3:p:487-512

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  2. Chomitz, Kenneth M & Kumari, Kanta, 1998. "The Domestic Benefits of Tropical Forests: A Critical Review," World Bank Research Observer, Oxford University Press, vol. 13(1), pages 13-35, February. [Downloadable!]
  3. Chomitz, Kenneth M. & Buys, Piet & Thomas, Timothy S., 2005. "Quantifying the rural-urban gradient in Latin America and the Caribbean," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3634, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
  4. Fezzi, Carlo & Bateman, Ian J. & Day, Brett & Posen, Paulette & Rigby, Dan, 2008. "Analizing Water Framework Directive Impacts Using A Multinomial Logit Land Use Model," 107th Seminar, January 30-February 1, 2008, Sevilla, Spain 6666, European Association of Agricultural Economists. [Downloadable!]
  5. de Pinto, Alessandro & Nelson, Gerald C., 2006. "Modeling Deforestation and Land Use Change: Sparse Data Environments," 2006 Annual Meeting, August 12-18, 2006, Queensland, Australia 25723, International Association of Agricultural Economists. [Downloadable!]
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  7. Lewis, David J. & Plantinga, Andrew J., 2004. "Policies To Reduce Forest Fragmentation: Combining Econometric Models With Gis-Based Landscape Simulations," 2004 Annual meeting, August 1-4, Denver, CO 19910, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association). [Downloadable!]
  8. Vance, Colin & Geoghegan, Jacqueline, 2001. "Modeling Tropical Deforestation: A Survival Analysis Linking Satellite And Household Survey Data," 2001 Annual meeting, August 5-8, Chicago, IL 20501, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association). [Downloadable!]
  9. Chomitz, Kenneth M. & Thomas, Timothy S., 2001. "Geographic patterns of land use and land intensity in the Brazilian Amazon," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2687, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
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  11. Chomitz, Kenneth M., 2000. "Evaluating carbon offsets from forestry and energy projects," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2357, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
  12. Klemick, Heather, 2008. "Do Liquidity Constraints Help Preserve Tropical Forests? Evidence from the Eastern Amazon," 2008 Annual Meeting, July 27-29, 2008, Orlando, Florida 6473, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association). [Downloadable!]
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