IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/quaeco/v80y2021icp179-194.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

On the effect of full-fledged IT adoption on stock returns and their conditional volatility: Evidence from propensity score matching

Author

Listed:
  • Dridi, Ichrak
  • Boughrara, Adel

Abstract

Applied research on central banking has attempted to assess the effects of adopting full-fledged inflation targeting on several macroeconomic variables, while the impact of financial variables has been under-researched so far. This paper fills this gap by assessing and quantifying the effect of full-fledged inflation targeting on stock returns and their conditional volatility. For this purpose, it implements the Propensity Score Matching (PSM), which is immune against reverse-causality, self-selection and omitted-variable biases, on a sample of advanced countries over 1990:Q1–2015:Q1 period. The results suggest that full-fledged inflation targeting is effective in boosting stock market returns and reducing volatility.

Suggested Citation

  • Dridi, Ichrak & Boughrara, Adel, 2021. "On the effect of full-fledged IT adoption on stock returns and their conditional volatility: Evidence from propensity score matching," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 179-194.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:quaeco:v:80:y:2021:i:c:p:179-194
    DOI: 10.1016/j.qref.2021.02.007
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1062976921000363
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.qref.2021.02.007?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ben S. Bernanke & Kenneth N. Kuttner, 2005. "What Explains the Stock Market's Reaction to Federal Reserve Policy?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(3), pages 1221-1257, June.
    2. N. Nergiz Dincer & Barry Eichengreen, 2014. "Central Bank Transparency and Independence: Updates and New Measures," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 10(1), pages 189-259, March.
    3. Boubakri, Narjess & El Ghoul, Sadok & Guedhami, Omrane & Hossain, Mahmud, 2020. "Post-privatization state ownership and bank risk-taking: Cross-country evidence," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    4. Zheng, Yi, 2020. "Does bank opacity affect lending?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 119(C).
    5. Bekaert, Geert & Hoerova, Marie & Lo Duca, Marco, 2013. "Risk, uncertainty and monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(7), pages 771-788.
    6. Anna Samarina & Jan-Egbert Sturm, 2014. "Factors leading to inflation targeting - the impact of adoption," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(13), pages 918-923, September.
    7. Thorbecke, Willem & Alami, Tarik, 1994. "The effect of changes in the federal funds rate target on stock prices in the 1970s," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 46(1), pages 13-19, February.
    8. Danielsson, Jon & James, Kevin R. & Valenzuela, Marcela & Zer, Ilknur, 2016. "Model risk of risk models," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 23(C), pages 79-91.
    9. Marco Caliendo & Sabine Kopeinig, 2008. "Some Practical Guidance For The Implementation Of Propensity Score Matching," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(1), pages 31-72, February.
    10. Rigobon, Roberto & Sack, Brian, 2004. "The impact of monetary policy on asset prices," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(8), pages 1553-1575, November.
    11. Kim, Young Min & Kang, Kyu Ho & Ka, Kook, 2020. "Do bond markets find inflation targets credible? Evidence from five inflation-targeting countries," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 66-84.
    12. Joonyoung Hur, 2017. "Monetary Policy and Asset Prices: A Markov‐Switching DSGE Approach," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(5), pages 965-982, August.
    13. Levine, Ross, 2002. "Bank-Based or Market-Based Financial Systems: Which Is Better?," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 11(4), pages 398-428, October.
    14. Fazio, Dimas Mateus & Silva, Thiago Christiano & Tabak, Benjamin Miranda & Cajueiro, Daniel Oliveira, 2018. "Inflation targeting and financial stability: Does the quality of institutions matter?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 1-15.
    15. Lin, Shu & Ye, Haichun, 2009. "Does inflation targeting make a difference in developing countries?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(1), pages 118-123, May.
    16. Avinash K. Dixit & Robert S. Pindyck, 1994. "Investment under Uncertainty," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 5474.
    17. Huybens, Elisabeth & Smith, Bruce D., 1999. "Inflation, financial markets and long-run real activity," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(2), pages 283-315, April.
    18. Drago, Danilo & Gallo, Raffaele, 2020. "The impact of financial crises on the syndicated loan spreads applied to public and private firms," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 46(C).
    19. Mehmet Ivrendi & Bulent Guloglu, 2012. "Changes in Stock Price Volatility and Monetary Policy Regimes: Evidence from Asian Countries," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(S4), pages 54-70, November.
    20. Laopodis, Nikiforos T., 2013. "Monetary policy and stock market dynamics across monetary regimes," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 381-406.
    21. Frye, Melissa B. & Pham, Duong T., 2018. "CEO gender and corporate board structures," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 110-124.
    22. Musa, Umar & Jun, Wen, 2020. "Does inflation targeting cause financial instability?: An empirical test of paradox of credibility hypothesis," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    23. James Heckman & Hidehiko Ichimura & Jeffrey Smith & Petra Todd, 1998. "Characterizing Selection Bias Using Experimental Data," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(5), pages 1017-1098, September.
    24. de Mendonça, Helder Ferreira & de Guimarães e Souza, Gustavo José, 2012. "Is inflation targeting a good remedy to control inflation?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 98(2), pages 178-191.
    25. Thorbecke, Willem, 1997. "On Stock Market Returns and Monetary Policy," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(2), pages 635-654, June.
    26. Juan Jose Diaz & Sudhanshu Handa, 2006. "An Assessment of Propensity Score Matching as a Nonexperimental Impact Estimator: Evidence from Mexico’s PROGRESA Program," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 41(2).
    27. Vogel, Harold L. & Werner, Richard A., 2015. "An analytical review of volatility metrics for bubbles and crashes," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 15-28.
    28. Thornton, John & Vasilakis, Chrysovalantis, 2016. "Does inflation targeting reduce sovereign risk? Further evidence," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 18(C), pages 237-241.
    29. Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
    30. Anna Samarina & Jakob De Haan, 2014. "Right On Target: Exploring The Factors Leading To Inflation Targeting Adoption," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 32(2), pages 372-389, April.
    31. James J. Heckman & Hidehiko Ichimura & Petra E. Todd, 1997. "Matching As An Econometric Evaluation Estimator: Evidence from Evaluating a Job Training Programme," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 64(4), pages 605-654.
    32. Adel Boughrara and Ichrak Dridi, 2017. "Does Inflation Targeting Matter for Foreign Portfolio Investment: Evidence from Propensity Score Matching," Journal of Economic Development, Chung-Ang Unviersity, Department of Economics, vol. 42(2), pages 67-86, June.
    33. Lin, Shu & Ye, Haichun, 2007. "Does inflation targeting really make a difference? Evaluating the treatment effect of inflation targeting in seven industrial countries," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(8), pages 2521-2533, November.
    34. Huang, Ho-Chuan & Yeh, Chih-Chuan & Wang, Xiuhua, 2019. "Inflation targeting and output-inflation tradeoffs," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 102-120.
    35. Rajeev H. Dehejia & Sadek Wahba, 2002. "Propensity Score-Matching Methods For Nonexperimental Causal Studies," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 84(1), pages 151-161, February.
    36. Gerald Epstein, 2007. "Central banks as agents of employment creation," Working Papers 38, United Nations, Department of Economics and Social Affairs.
    37. John Thornton & Chrysovalantis Vasilakis, 2018. "Fiscal Rules And Government Borrowing Costs: International Evidence," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 56(1), pages 446-459, January.
    38. Brito, Ricardo D. & Bystedt, Brianne, 2010. "Inflation targeting in emerging economies: Panel evidence," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(2), pages 198-210, March.
    39. Patelis, Alex D, 1997. "Stock Return Predictability and the Role of Monetary Policy," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(5), pages 1951-1972, December.
    40. Mukherjee, Bumba & Singer, David Andrew, 2008. "Monetary Institutions, Partisanship, and Inflation Targeting," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 62(2), pages 323-358, April.
    41. Anna Samarina & Mirre Terpstra & Jakob De Haan, 2014. "Inflation targeting and inflation performance: a comparative analysis," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(1), pages 41-56, January.
    42. Ismail Onur Baycan, 2016. "The effects of exchange rate regimes on economic growth: evidence from propensity score matching estimates," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(5), pages 914-924, April.
    43. Schmidt, Reinhard H. & Hryckiewicz, Aneta, 2006. "Financial systems - importance, differences and convergence," IMFS Working Paper Series 4, Goethe University Frankfurt, Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability (IMFS).
    44. Armand Fouejieu,, 2017. "Inflation targeting and financial stability in emerging markets," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 51-70.
    45. Adel Bogari, 2020. "Revisiting the Nexus Between Inflation Targeting and the Build-Up of the Financial Imbalances," Applied Economics and Finance, Redfame publishing, vol. 7(2), pages 85-95, March.
    46. Chatziantoniou, Ioannis & Duffy, David & Filis, George, 2013. "Stock market response to monetary and fiscal policy shocks: Multi-country evidence," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 754-769.
    47. Ayash, Brian, 2020. "The origin, ownership and use of cash flows in leveraged buyouts," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 286-295.
    48. Carl E. Walsh, 2009. "Inflation Targeting: What Have We Learned?," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(2), pages 195-233, August.
    49. Bollerslev, Tim, 1987. "A Conditionally Heteroskedastic Time Series Model for Speculative Prices and Rates of Return," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 69(3), pages 542-547, August.
    50. Ioannidis, Christos & Kontonikas, Alexandros, 2008. "The impact of monetary policy on stock prices," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 33-53.
    51. Michael D. Bordo & David C. Wheelock, 1998. "Price stability and financial stability: the historical record," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Sep, pages 41-62.
    52. Lastrapes, W. D., 1998. "International evidence on equity prices, interest rates and money," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 377-406, June.
    53. Boubakri, Narjess & Guedhami, Omrane & Kwok, Chuck C.Y. & Wang, He (Helen), 2019. "Is privatization a socially responsible reform?," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 129-151.
    54. Filippo Curti & Ibrahim Ergen & Minh Le & Marco Migueis & Rob T. Stewart, 2016. "Benchmarking Operational Risk Models," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2016-070, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Dridi, Ichrak & Boughrara, Adel, 2023. "Flexible inflation targeting and stock market volatility: Evidence from emerging market economies," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    2. Jianwen Li & Jinyan Hu, 2022. "Migrants and default: Evidence from China," International Review of Finance, International Review of Finance Ltd., vol. 22(3), pages 472-505, September.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Dridi, Ichrak & Boughrara, Adel, 2023. "Flexible inflation targeting and stock market volatility: Evidence from emerging market economies," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    2. Goran Petrevski, 2023. "Macroeconomic Effects of Inflation Targeting: A Survey of the Empirical Literature," Papers 2305.17474, arXiv.org.
    3. Petrevski, Goran, 2023. "Macroeconomic Effects of Inflation Targeting: A Survey of the Empirical Literature," EconStor Preprints 271122, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    4. Petrevski, Goran, 2023. "Determinants of Inflation Targeting: A Survey of Empirical Literature," EconStor Preprints 271121, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    5. Atsuyoshi Morozumi & Michael Bleaney & Zakari Mumuni, 2020. "Inflation targeting in low‐income countries: Does IT work?," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(4), pages 1529-1550, November.
    6. Anna Samarina & Mirre Terpstra & Jakob De Haan, 2014. "Inflation targeting and inflation performance: a comparative analysis," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(1), pages 41-56, January.
    7. Bao-We-Wal Bambe, 2023. "Inflation Targeting and Private Domestic Investment in Developing Countries," Post-Print hal-04227639, HAL.
    8. Salvatore Perdichizzi, 2017. "The impact of ECBs conventional and unconventional monetary policies on European banking indexes returns," DISCE - Working Papers del Dipartimento di Economia e Finanza def059, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Dipartimenti e Istituti di Scienze Economiche (DISCE).
    9. Adina Ionela Străchinaru & Bogdan Andrei Dumitrescu, 2019. "Assessing the Sustainability of Inflation Targeting: Evidence from EU Countries with Non-EURO Currencies," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(20), pages 1-13, October.
    10. Kadria, Mohamed & Ben Aissa, Mohamed Safouane, 2016. "Inflation targeting and public deficit in emerging countries: A time varying treatment effect approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 52(PA), pages 108-114.
    11. Zulkefly Abdul Karim & Mohd Azlan Shah Zaidi, 2015. "Monetary Policy, Firm Size and Equity Returns in An Emerging Market: Panel Evidence of Malaysia," Asian Academy of Management Journal of Accounting and Finance (AAMJAF), Penerbit Universiti Sains Malaysia, vol. 11(2), pages 29-55.
    12. Cheng Jiang, 2018. "The Asymmetric Effects of Monetary Policy on Stock Market," Quarterly Journal of Finance (QJF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 8(03), pages 1-27, September.
    13. Harold Glenn A. Valera & Mark J. Holmes & Gazi M. Hassan, 2018. "Is inflation targeting credible in Asia? A panel GARCH approach," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 54(2), pages 523-546, March.
    14. Lucotte, Yannick, 2012. "Adoption of inflation targeting and tax revenue performance in emerging market economies: An empirical investigation," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 609-628.
    15. Sashikanta Khuntia & Gourishankar S. Hiremath, 2019. "Monetary Policy Announcements and Stock Returns: Some Further Evidence from India," Journal of Quantitative Economics, Springer;The Indian Econometric Society (TIES), vol. 17(4), pages 801-827, December.
    16. Minea, Alexandru & Tapsoba, René, 2014. "Does inflation targeting improve fiscal discipline?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 185-203.
    17. Ogrokhina, Olena & Rodriguez, Cesar M., 2018. "The role of inflation targeting in international debt denomination in developing countries," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 116-129.
    18. Apeti, Ablam Estel & Combes, Jean-Louis & Minea, Alexandru, 2023. "Inflation targeting and the composition of public expenditure: Evidence from developing countries," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    19. Huang, Ho-Chuan (River) & Yeh, Chih-Chuan, 2017. "Level, structure, and volatility of financial development and inflation targeting," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 108-124.
    20. Soe, Than Than & Kakinaka, Makoto, 2018. "Inflation targeting and income velocity in developing economies: Some international evidence," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 44-61.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Full-fledged inflation targeting; Propensity score matching; Stock market returns; Conditional volatility;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
    • C40 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - General
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • G20 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - General

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:quaeco:v:80:y:2021:i:c:p:179-194. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/620167 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.