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Inflation, Financial Markets and Long-Run Real Activity

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Author Info
Elisabeth Huybens (Centro de Investigacion Economica (CIE), Instituto Tecnologico Autonomo de Mexico (ITAM))
Bruce D. Smith (University of Texas)

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Abstract

Empirical evidence suggest that real activity, the volume of bank lending activity, and the volume of trading in equity markets are strongly positively correlated. At the same time. inflation and the volume of financial market activity are strongly negatively correlated (in the long-run), as are inflation and the real rate of return on equity. Inflation anr real activity are also negatively correlated in the long-run, particularly for economies with relatively high rates of inflation. We present a monetary growth model in which banks and secundary capital markets play a crucial allocative function. We show that - at least under certain configurations of parameters - the predictions of the model are consistent with these and several other observations about finance, inflation and long-run real activity.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Centro de Investigacion Economica, ITAM in its series Working Papers with number 9707.

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Length: 44 pages
Date of creation: Aug 1997
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:cie:wpaper:9707

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  1. Demirguc-Kunt, Asli, 2006. "Finance and economic development : policy choices for developing countries," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3955, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
  2. Bruce D. Smith & Mohsin S. Khan & A. Senhadji Semlali, . "Inflation and Financial Depth," IMF Working Papers 01/44, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
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  3. Kangni Kpodar & Dhaneshwar Ghura & Raju Singh, 2009. "Financial Deepening in the CFA Franc Zone:The Role of Institutions," IMF Working Papers 09/113, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  4. Huang, Yongfu & Temple, Jonathan, 2005. "Does External Trade Promote Financial Development?," CEPR Discussion Papers 5150, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Svaleryd, Helena & Vlachos, Jonas, 2002. "Financial Markets, Industrial Specialization and Comparative Advantage - Evidence from OECD Countries," Research Papers in Economics 2002:6, Stockholm University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  6. Masao Ogaki & Vikas Kakkar, 2002. "The Distortionary Effects of Inflation: An Empirical Investigation," Working Papers 02-01, Ohio State University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  7. Javier Andrés & Ignacio Hernando & J. David López-Salido, 1999. "The Role of the Financial System in the Growth-Inflation Link: the OECD Experience," Banco de España Working Papers 9920, Banco de España. [Downloadable!]
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  8. Luintel, Kul B & Khan, Mosahid & Arestis, Philip & Theodoridis, Konstantinos, 2008. "Financial Structure and Economic Growth," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2008/3, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section. [Downloadable!]
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  9. Kemal, A.R. & Qayyum, Abdul & Hanif , Muhammad N., 2004. "Financial Development and Economic Growth: Evidence from a Heterogeneous Panel of High Income Countries," MPRA Paper 10198, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  10. Bittencourt, Manoel, 2007. "Inflation and Financial Development: Evidence from Brazil," Proceedings of the German Development Economics Conference, Göttingen 2007 1, Verein für Socialpolitik, Research Committee Development Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  11. Asli Demirguc-Kunt & Luc Laeven & Ross Levine, 2003. "Regulations, Market Structure, Institutions, and the Cost of Financial Intermediation," NBER Working Papers 9890, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. Stefan Krause & Felix Rioja, 2006. "Financial Development and Monetary Policy Efficiency," Emory Economics 0613, Department of Economics, Emory University (Atlanta). [Downloadable!]
  13. Yongfu Huang, 2005. "What determines financial development?," Bristol Economics Discussion Papers 05/580, Department of Economics, University of Bristol, UK. [Downloadable!]
  14. Andreas Billmeier & Isabella Massa, 2007. "What Drives Stock Market Development in the Middle East and Central Asia--Institutions, Remittances, or Natural Resources?," IMF Working Papers 07/157, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  15. Gerald Stuber, 2001. "Implications of Uncertainty about Long-Run Inflation and the Price Level," Working Papers 01-16, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
  16. Amparo Nagore & Joaquín Maudos Villarroya, 2005. "Explaining Market Power Differences In Banking: A Cross-Country Study," Working Papers. Serie EC 2005-10, Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Económicas, S.A. (Ivie). [Downloadable!]
  17. Vlachos, Jonas & Svaleryd, Helena, 2001. "Financial Markets, the Pattern of Specialization and Comparative Advantage. Evidence from OECD countries," Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 449, Stockholm School of Economics, revised 03 Sep 2001. [Downloadable!]
  18. Bhattacharya, Joydeep, 2003. "Monetary Policy And The Distribution Of Income," Staff General Research Papers 11072, Iowa State University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  19. Beck, Thorsten, 2003. "Stock markets, banks, and economic development:theory and evidence," EIB Papers 2/2003, European Investment Bank, Economic and Financial Studies. [Downloadable!]
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