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Experimental methods: Eliciting beliefs

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  • Charness, Gary
  • Gneezy, Uri
  • Rasocha, Vlastimil

Abstract

Expectations are a critical factor in determining actions in a great variety of economic interactions. Hence, being able to measure beliefs is important in many economic environments. In this article, we review the approaches that have been used to measure beliefs and make comparisons of their effectiveness. We also discuss belief elicitation when the truth is not verifiable. We find that introspection (non-incentivized responses) seems to do as well as rather complex incentivized methods. We conjecture that simple and easy-to-comprehend incentivized methods are superior to introspection, in fact there are very few studies making such comparisons; this is an avenue for future research. We also discuss ways in which relatively complex methods could be made easier for usage in experimental work.

Suggested Citation

  • Charness, Gary & Gneezy, Uri & Rasocha, Vlastimil, 2021. "Experimental methods: Eliciting beliefs," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 189(C), pages 234-256.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jeborg:v:189:y:2021:i:c:p:234-256
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jebo.2021.06.032
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Experimental methodology; Belief elicitation; Comprehension; Scoring rules; Incentives;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • B49 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - Economic Methodology - - - Other
    • C90 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Design of Experiments - - - General
    • C91 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Design of Experiments - - - Laboratory, Individual Behavior
    • C92 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Design of Experiments - - - Laboratory, Group Behavior

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