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Notes--Discovering Personal Probabilities When Utility Functions are Unknown

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Author Info

  • Franklin Allen

    (The Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania 19104)

Abstract

Standard scoring rules require knowledge of the expert's utility function. This note shows how basic reference lottery tickets can be used to develop scoring rules which do not require this information.

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File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.33.4.542
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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by INFORMS in its journal Management Science.

Volume (Year): 33 (1987)
Issue (Month): 4 (April)
Pages: 542-544

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Handle: RePEc:inm:ormnsc:v:33:y:1987:i:4:p:542-544

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Related research

Keywords: scoring rules; unobservable preferences;

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Cited by:
  1. Armantier, Olivier & Treich, Nicolas, 2010. "Eliciting Beliefs: Proper Scoring Rules, Incentives, Stakes and Hedging," LERNA Working Papers 10.26.332, LERNA, University of Toulouse.
  2. Chambers, Christopher P., 2008. "Proper scoring rules for general decision models," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 63(1), pages 32-40, May.
  3. Li Hao & Daniel Houser, 2012. "Belief elicitation in the presence of naïve respondents: An experimental study," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 44(2), pages 161-180, April.
  4. Alvaro Sandroni & Eran Shmaya, 2013. "Eliciting Beliefs by Paying in Chance," Discussion Papers 1565, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science.
  5. Fang, Fang & Stinchcombe, Maxwell B. & Whinston, Andrew B., 2010. "Proper scoring rules with arbitrary value functions," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(6), pages 1200-1210, November.

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