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Under-reaction in the sovereign CDS market

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  • Wang, Xinjie
  • Xiao, Yaqing
  • Yan, Hongjun
  • Zhang, Jinfan

Abstract

The sovereign CDS market has developed rapidly for two decades and currently has a gross notional amount of more than a trillion dollars. We document a strong momentum effect in this market, which cannot be explained by a large set of risk factors. These momentum returns are positively skewed and higher during recessions. Consistent with the interpretation that this momentum effect is due to investors’ initial underreaction to sovereign credit information followed by corrections, our evidence shows that the momentum returns tend to be higher during the months surrounding announcements of credit rating or outlook changes of the underlying countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Wang, Xinjie & Xiao, Yaqing & Yan, Hongjun & Zhang, Jinfan, 2021. "Under-reaction in the sovereign CDS market," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:130:y:2021:i:c:s0378426621001503
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jbankfin.2021.106191
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    Cited by:

    1. Chang, Jeffery (Jinfan) & Du, Huancheng & Lou, Dong & Polk, Christopher, 2022. "Ripples into waves: Trade networks, economic activity, and asset prices," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(1), pages 217-238.
    2. Wang, Qunwei & Liu, Mengmeng & Xiao, Ling & Dai, Xingyu & Li, Matthew C. & Wu, Fei, 2022. "Conditional sovereign CDS in market basket risk scenario: A dynamic vine-copula analysis," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Underreaction; Macro information; Sovereign CDS; Predictability; Limits to arbitrage;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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