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Credit default swaps and the market for sovereign debt

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  • Ismailescu, Iuliana
  • Phillips, Blake

Abstract

In this paper, we analyze the determinants and effects of credit default swap (CDS) trading initiation in the sovereign bond market. CDS trading initiation is associated with a 30–150 basis point reduction in sovereign bond yields, with greater yield reductions accruing to higher default risk economies. For countries with high default risk, rated B or lower by Standard and Poor’s, CDS initiation is also associated with significant price efficiency benefits in the underlying market. CDS trading initiation is more likely following increases in local equity index volatility, index spreads for regional and global CDS markets, or depreciation of the local currency relative to the US dollar, and decreases in a country’s ability to service foreign debt. Our results are robust to selection bias controls based on these factors.

Suggested Citation

  • Ismailescu, Iuliana & Phillips, Blake, 2015. "Credit default swaps and the market for sovereign debt," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 43-61.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:52:y:2015:i:c:p:43-61
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jbankfin.2014.10.015
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    Cited by:

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    3. Saker Sabkha & Christian de Peretti & Dorra Mezzez Hmaied, 2019. "International risk spillover in the sovereign credit markets: An empirical analysis," Post-Print hal-01652526, HAL.
    4. Fatum, Rasmus & Hattori, Takahiro & Yamamoto, Yohei, 2023. "Reserves and risk: Evidence from China," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    5. Wang, Xinjie & Xiao, Yaqing & Yan, Hongjun & Zhang, Jinfan, 2021. "Under-reaction in the sovereign CDS market," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).
    6. Saker Sabkha & Christian de Peretti & Dorra Hmaied, 2017. "International risk spillover in the sovereign credit markets: An empirical analysis," Working Papers hal-01652526, HAL.
    7. Stuart Snaith & Neil M. Kellard & Norzalina Ahmad, 2018. "Open outcry versus electronic trading: Tests of market efficiency on crude palm oil futures," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(6), pages 673-695, June.
    8. Qi-An Chen & Fangzhou Du, 2017. "Hedging Of Credit Derivatives, Systematic Fluctuation And Banking Stability In China," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 62(04), pages 809-836, September.
    9. Shi, Yukun & Stasinakis, Charalampos & Xu, Yaofei & Yan, Cheng, 2022. "Market co-movement between credit default swap curves and option volatility surfaces," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    10. Kim, Gi H., 2016. "Credit derivatives as a commitment device: Evidence from the cost of corporate debt," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 67-83.
    11. Hassan, Kamrul & Hoque, Ariful & Gasbarro, Dominic, 2017. "Sovereign default risk linkage: Implication for portfolio diversification," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 1-16.
    12. Rasmus Fatum & James Yetman, 2018. "Does the accumulation of foreign currency reserves affect risk-taking? An event study approach," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), The price, real and financial effects of exchange rates, volume 96, pages 41-52, Bank for International Settlements.
    13. Sabkha, Saker & de Peretti, Christian & Hmaied, Dorra, 2019. "Nonlinearities in the oil effects on the sovereign credit risk: A self-exciting threshold autoregression approach," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 106-133.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Credit default swaps; Sovereign bonds; Borrowing costs; Price efficiency; Credit risk;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F30 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - General
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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