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The Impact of Trades on Daily Volatility

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  • Doron Avramov
  • Tarun Chordia
  • Amit Goyal

Abstract

This article proposes a trading-based explanation for the asymmetric effect in daily volatility of individual stock returns. Previous studies propose two major hypotheses for this phenomenon: leverage effect and time-varying expected returns. However, leverage has no impact on asymmetric volatility at the daily frequency and, moreover, we observe asymmetric volatility for stocks with no leverage. Also, expected returns may vary with the business cycle, that is, at a lower than daily frequency. Trading activity of contrarian and herding investors has a robust effect on the relationship between daily volatility and lagged return. Consistent with the predictions of the rational expectation models, the non-informational liquidity-driven (herding) trades increase volatility following stock price declines, and the informed (contrarian) trades reduce volatility following stock price increases. The results are robust to different measures of volatility and trading activity. (JEL C30, G11, G12) Copyright 2006, Oxford University Press.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Society for Financial Studies in its journal The Review of Financial Studies.

Volume (Year): 19 (2006)
Issue (Month): 4 ()
Pages: 1241-1277

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Handle: RePEc:oup:rfinst:v:19:y:2006:i:4:p:1241-1277

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Cited by:
  1. Yao, Jing & Li, Duan, 2013. "Prospect theory and trading patterns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(8), pages 2793-2805.
  2. Diether, Karl B. & Lee, Kuan-Hui & Werner, Ingrid M., 2007. "Can Short-Sellers Predict Returns? Daily Evidence," Working Paper Series 2005-15, Ohio State University, Charles A. Dice Center for Research in Financial Economics.
  3. Chien, Cheng-Yi & Lee, Hsiu-Chuan & Tai, Shih-Wen & Liao, Tzu-Hsiang, 2013. "Information, hedging demand, and institutional investors: Evidence from the Taiwan Futures Exchange," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 23(5), pages 394-414.
  4. Kao, Erin H. & Fung, Hung-Gay, 2012. "Intraday trading activities and volatility in round-the-clock futures markets," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 195-209.
  5. Bae, Kee-Hong & Yamada, Takeshi & Ito, Keiichi, 2008. "Interaction of investor trades and market volatility: Evidence from the Tokyo Stock Exchange," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 370-388, September.
  6. Julien Chevallier & Benoît Sévi, 2011. "On the volatility-volume relationship in energy futures markets using intraday data," EconomiX Working Papers 2011-16, University of Paris West - Nanterre la Défense, EconomiX.
  7. Omori, Yasuhiro & Watanabe, Toshiaki, 2008. "Block sampler and posterior mode estimation for asymmetric stochastic volatility models," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 52(6), pages 2892-2910, February.
  8. Shkilko, Andriy V. & Van Ness, Bonnie F. & Van Ness, Robert A., 2008. "Locked and crossed markets on NASDAQ and the NYSE," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 308-337, August.
  9. Ederington, Louis H. & Guan, Wei, 2010. "How asymmetric is U.S. stock market volatility?," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 225-248, May.
  10. Bank for International Settlements, 2006. "The recent behaviour of financial market volatility," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 29, 3.
  11. Jullavut Kittiakarasakun & Yiuman Tse & George H.K. Wang, 2012. "The impact of trades by traders on asymmetric volatility for Nasdaq-100 index futures," Managerial Finance, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 38(8), pages 752-767, August.
  12. Li, Wei & Wang, Steven Shuye, 2010. "Daily institutional trades and stock price volatility in a retail investor dominated emerging market," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 448-474, November.
  13. Alldredge, Dallin M. & Blau, Benjamin M. & Brough, Tyler J., 2012. "Short selling after hours," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 64(6), pages 439-451.
  14. Fabio Panetta & Paolo Angelini & Giuseppe Grande & Aviram Levy & Roberto Perli & Pinar Yesin & Stefan Gerlach & Srichander Ramaswamy & Michela Scatigna, 2006. "The recent behaviour of financial market volatility," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 2, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  15. Claudio M. P. Cunha, 2011. "Disposition Effect andAsymmetric Volatility of Individual Stocks," Anais do XXXVII Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 37th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 58, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pósgraduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].

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