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Is there a case for banning short speculation in sovereign bond markets?

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  • Duffie, D.

Abstract

I address whether speculation in credit default swaps is likely to have driven up Eurozone sovereign borrowing costs. I provide empirical evidence, based on research in progress with Zhipeng Zhang, that this is not the case. I also describe the role of speculators in credit default swap markets. I discuss how regulations that severely restrict speculation in credit default swap markets could have the unintended consequences of reducing market liquidity, raising trading execution costs for investors who are not speculating, and lowering the quality of information provided by credit default swap rates regarding the credit qualities of sovereign issuers. Regulations that severely restrict speculation in credit default swap markets could, as a result, increase sovereign borrowing costs. I briefl y suggest alternative regulatory approaches.

Suggested Citation

  • Duffie, D., 2010. "Is there a case for banning short speculation in sovereign bond markets?," Financial Stability Review, Banque de France, issue 14, pages 55-59, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:bfr:fisrev:2010:14:7
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    Cited by:

    1. Avino, Davide & Cotter, John, 2014. "Sovereign and bank CDS spreads: Two sides of the same coin?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 72-85.
    2. Boris T. Petkov, 2017. "Excessive Debt or Excess Savings -- Transition Countries Sovereign Bond Spread Assessment," International Business Research, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 10(3), pages 91-119, March.
    3. Antón, Miguel & Mayordomo, Sergio & Rodríguez‐Moreno, María, 2018. "Dealing with dealers: Sovereign CDS comovements," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 96-112.
    4. Augustin, Patrick & Sokolovski, Valeri & Subrahmanyam, Marti G. & Tomio, Davide, 2022. "How sovereign is sovereign credit risk? Global prices, local quantities," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 131(C), pages 92-111.
    5. Broto, Carmen & Pérez-Quirós, Gabriel, 2015. "Disentangling contagion among sovereign CDS spreads during the European debt crisis," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 165-179.
    6. Avino, Davide & Cotter, John, 2013. "Sovereign and bank CDS spreads: two sides of the same coin for European bank default predictability?," MPRA Paper 56782, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Buse, Rebekka & Schienle, Melanie & Urban, Jörg, 2019. "Effectiveness of policy and regulation in European sovereign credit risk markets: A network analysis," Working Paper Series in Economics 125, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Department of Economics and Management.
    8. Ismailescu, Iuliana & Phillips, Blake, 2015. "Credit default swaps and the market for sovereign debt," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 43-61.
    9. Gunther Capelle-Blancard, 2010. "Are derivatives dangerous?," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-00605908, HAL.
    10. Kiesel, F., 2016. "The effect of credit and rating events on credit default swap and equity markets," Publications of Darmstadt Technical University, Institute for Business Studies (BWL) 81247, Darmstadt Technical University, Department of Business Administration, Economics and Law, Institute for Business Studies (BWL).
    11. Gündüz, Yalin & Nasev, Julia & Trapp, Monika, 2012. "The price impact of CDS trading," CFR Working Papers 12-12, University of Cologne, Centre for Financial Research (CFR).
    12. Buse, Rebekka & Schienle, Melanie & Urban, Jörg, 2022. "Assessing the impact of policy and regulation interventions in European sovereign credit risk networks: What worked best?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    13. Gyntelberg, Jacob & Hördahl, Peter & Ters, Kristyna & Urban, Jörg, 2018. "Price discovery in euro area sovereign credit markets and the ban on naked CDS," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 106-125.
    14. Juan Ignacio Pe~na, 2019. "Credit Cycles, Securitization, and Credit Default Swaps," Papers 1901.00177, arXiv.org.
    15. Gehde-Trapp, Monika & Gündüz, Yalin & Nasev, Julia, 2015. "The liquidity premium in CDS transaction prices: Do frictions matter?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 184-205.
    16. Sergio Andenmatten & Felix Brill, 2011. "Did the CDS Market Push up Risk Premia for Sovereign Credit?," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 147(III), pages 275-302, September.
    17. Christoph Trebesch & Mr. Michael G. Papaioannou & Mr. Udaibir S Das, 2012. "Sovereign Debt Restructurings 1950-2010: Literature Survey, Data, and Stylized Facts," IMF Working Papers 2012/203, International Monetary Fund.
    18. Xavier Méra, 2013. "Credit Default Swaps, Contract Theory, Public Debt, and Fiat Money Regimes: Comment on Polleit and Mariano," Post-Print halshs-00851723, HAL.
    19. Kiesel, Florian, 2016. "The effect of credit and rating events on credit default swap and equity markets," Publications of Darmstadt Technical University, Institute for Business Studies (BWL) 81265, Darmstadt Technical University, Department of Business Administration, Economics and Law, Institute for Business Studies (BWL).
    20. Agostino Capponi & Martin Larsson, 2014. "Will banning naked CDS impact bond prices?," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 10(3), pages 481-508, August.
    21. Iñaki Aldasoro & Torsten Ehlers, 2018. "The credit default swap market: what a difference a decade makes," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, June.
    22. Óscar Arce & Fco. Javier González Pueyo & Lucio Sanjuán, 2010. "The Credit Default Swaps market: areas of vulnerability and regulatory responses," CNMV Working Papers CNMV Working Papers no. 4, CNMV- Spanish Securities Markets Commission - Research and Statistics Department.

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