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The Brexit vote and currency markets

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  • Dao, Thong M.
  • McGroarty, Frank
  • Urquhart, Andrew

Abstract

This paper studies the effect of the Brexit vote on the intraday correlation and volatility transmission among major currencies. We find that the vote causes an increase in the correlation among the safe-haven currencies of the Swiss franc and Japanese yen as well as gold, and also find a decrease in their correlation with the directly involved currencies of British sterling and the Euro. These changes are due to the appreciation of the former group and the depreciation of the latter group which represents a flight to quality of investors. We also observe a substantial decrease in volatility transmission between British sterling and the Euro following the Brexit vote due to lower levels of market integration. However the volatility transmission among the currencies has increased in general and their net spillover is positively correlated with their level of volatility and trading activities. Therefore we document the significant impact of the politically important Brexit vote on the high frequency correlation and volatility spillover in the foreign exchange market.

Suggested Citation

  • Dao, Thong M. & McGroarty, Frank & Urquhart, Andrew, 2019. "The Brexit vote and currency markets," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 153-164.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:intfin:v:59:y:2019:i:c:p:153-164
    DOI: 10.1016/j.intfin.2018.11.004
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    2. David Y. Aharon & Zaghum Umar & Xuan Vinh Vo, 2021. "Dynamic spillovers between the term structure of interest rates, bitcoin, and safe-haven currencies," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 7(1), pages 1-25, December.
    3. Alexander Koch & Toan Luu Duc Huynh & Mei Wang, 2024. "News sentiment and international equity markets during BREXIT period: A textual and connectedness analysis," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(1), pages 5-34, January.
    4. Samir Kadiric, 2020. "The determinants of sovereign risk premiums in the UK and the European government bond market: The impact of Brexit," EIIW Discussion paper disbei271, Universitätsbibliothek Wuppertal, University Library.
    5. Samir Kadiric, 2022. "The determinants of sovereign risk premiums in the UK and the European government bond market: the impact of Brexit," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 19(2), pages 267-298, May.

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