IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/scotjp/v67y2020i2p166-185.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The financial costs of political uncertainty: Evidence from the 2016 US presidential elections

Author

Listed:
  • Refk Selmi
  • Jamal Bouoiyour

Abstract

The victory of Mr. Donald Trump came as a surprise to a wide range of market participants. Some of the elements of his economic plan were envisaged to affect all US sectors. This paper assesses the reactions of disaggregated US stock market to the 2016 US presidential election results, and possible deregulation that is to follow after his inauguration. We find that the different US sectors were significantly and varyingly influenced by the election result, and were greatly reactive during the days after the inauguration. This underscores that uncertainty tends to persist and even rises since the President‐elect took office.

Suggested Citation

  • Refk Selmi & Jamal Bouoiyour, 2020. "The financial costs of political uncertainty: Evidence from the 2016 US presidential elections," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 67(2), pages 166-185, May.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:scotjp:v:67:y:2020:i:2:p:166-185
    DOI: 10.1111/sjpe.12231
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/sjpe.12231
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/sjpe.12231?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Baur, Dirk G. & McDermott, Thomas K., 2010. "Is gold a safe haven? International evidence," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(8), pages 1886-1898, August.
    2. Holger Breinlich & Elsa Leromain & Dennis Novy & Thomas Sampson & Ahmed Usman, 2018. "The Economic Effects of Brexit: Evidence from the Stock Market," Fiscal Studies, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 39(4), pages 581-623, December.
    3. Lubos Pástor & Pietro Veronesi, 2012. "Uncertainty about Government Policy and Stock Prices," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 67(4), pages 1219-1264, August.
    4. Schiereck, D. & Kiesel, F. & Kolaric, S., 2016. "Brexit: (Not) another Lehman moment for banks?," Publications of Darmstadt Technical University, Institute for Business Studies (BWL) 82881, Darmstadt Technical University, Department of Business Administration, Economics and Law, Institute for Business Studies (BWL).
    5. Hachenberg, B. & Kiesel, F. & Kolaric, S. & Schiereck, D., 2017. "The impact of expected regulatory changes: The case of banks following the 2016 U.S. election," Publications of Darmstadt Technical University, Institute for Business Studies (BWL) 84772, Darmstadt Technical University, Department of Business Administration, Economics and Law, Institute for Business Studies (BWL).
    6. He, Yan & Lin, Hai & Wu, Chunchi & Dufrene, Uric B., 2009. "The 2000 presidential election and the information cost of sensitive versus non-sensitive S&P 500 stocks," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 54-86, February.
    7. Jamal Bouoiyour, Refk Selmi, 2018. "Are UK industries resilient in dealing with uncertainty? The case of Brexit," European Journal of Comparative Economics, Cattaneo University (LIUC), vol. 15(2), pages 277-292, December.
    8. Oumar Sy & Ashraf Al Zaman, 2011. "Resolving the Presidential Puzzle," Financial Management, Financial Management Association International, vol. 40(2), pages 331-355, June.
    9. Steven Jones & Kevin Banning, 2009. "US elections and monthly stock market returns," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 33(3), pages 273-287, July.
    10. Scott R. Baker & Nicholas Bloom & Steven J. Davis, 2016. "Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 131(4), pages 1593-1636.
    11. Corrado, Charles J., 1989. "A nonparametric test for abnormal security-price performance in event studies," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 385-395, August.
    12. Bouoiyour, Jamal & Selmi, Refk, 2018. "Are BRICS Markets Equally Exposed to Trump’s Agenda?," Journal of Economic Integration, Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University, vol. 33(2), pages 1203-1233.
    13. A. Craig MacKinlay, 1997. "Event Studies in Economics and Finance," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 35(1), pages 13-39, March.
    14. Jinliang Li & Jeffery A. Born, 2006. "Presidential Election Uncertainty And Common Stock Returns In The United States," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 29(4), pages 609-622, December.
    15. Dirk G. Baur & Brian M. Lucey, 2010. "Is Gold a Hedge or a Safe Haven? An Analysis of Stocks, Bonds and Gold," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 45(2), pages 217-229, May.
    16. Srinivas Nippani & W. Medlin, 2002. "The 2000 Presidential Election and the stock market," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 26(2), pages 162-169, June.
    17. Jonathan Brogaard & Andrew Detzel, 2015. "The Asset-Pricing Implications of Government Economic Policy Uncertainty," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 61(1), pages 3-18, January.
    18. Goodell, John W. & Vähämaa, Sami, 2013. "US presidential elections and implied volatility: The role of political uncertainty," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 1108-1117.
    19. Pasquariello, Paolo, 2014. "Prospect Theory and market quality," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 149(C), pages 276-310.
    20. Hachenberg, Britta & Kiesel, Florian & Kolaric, Sascha & Schiereck, Dirk, 2017. "The impact of expected regulatory changes: The case of banks following the 2016U.S. election," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 22(C), pages 268-273.
    21. Vikash Ramiah & Huy N. A. Pham & Imad Moosa, 2017. "The sectoral effects of Brexit on the British economy: early evidence from the reaction of the stock market," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(26), pages 2508-2514, June.
    22. Pantzalis, Christos & Stangeland, David A. & Turtle, Harry J., 2000. "Political elections and the resolution of uncertainty: The international evidence," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(10), pages 1575-1604, October.
    23. Srinivas Nippani & Augustine Arize, 2005. "U.S. Presidential election impact on Canadian and Mexican stock markets," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 29(2), pages 271-279, June.
    24. Brown, Keith C. & Harlow, W. V. & Tinic, Seha M., 1988. "Risk aversion, uncertain information, and market efficiency," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 355-385, December.
    25. Chesney, Marc & Reshetar, Ganna & Karaman, Mustafa, 2011. "The impact of terrorism on financial markets: An empirical study," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 253-267, February.
    26. Pham, Huy Nguyen Anh & Ramiah, Vikash & Moosa, Nisreen & Huynh, Tam & Pham, Nhi, 2018. "The financial effects of Trumpism," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 264-274.
    27. Schiereck, Dirk & Kiesel, Florian & Kolaric, Sascha, 2016. "Brexit: (Not) another Lehman moment for banks?," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 19(C), pages 291-297.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Jian, Jian-hui & Hu, Dan & Tian, Haiyan & Long, Chengfeng & Yang, Fan, 2023. "Political uncertainty, officials’ characteristics heterogeneity and firm cost stickiness," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 776-791.
    2. Delia DiaconaÅŸu & Seyed Mehdian & Ovidiu Stoica, 2023. "The Global Stock Market Reactions to the 2016 U.S. Presidential Election," SAGE Open, , vol. 13(2), pages 21582440231, June.
    3. Mobeen Ur Rehman & Wafa Ghardallou & Nasir Ahmad & Xuan Vinh Vo & Sang Hoon Kang, 2024. "Does effect of risk and uncertainties on US sectoral returns differ across different investment horizons and market conditions," Risk Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 26(1), pages 1-49, February.
    4. Worraphan Trakarnsirinont & Wisuttorn Jitaree & Wonlop Writthym Buachoom, 2023. "Political Uncertainty and Financial Firm Performance: Evidence from the Thai Economy as an Emerging Market in Asia," Economies, MDPI, vol. 11(1), pages 1-12, January.
    5. Selmi, Refk & Bouoiyour, Jamal & Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Errami, Youssef & Wohar, Mark E., 2021. "The energy transition, Trump energy agenda and COVID-19," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 165(C), pages 140-153.
    6. Refk Selmi & Youssef Errami & Mark E Wohar, 2020. "Are U.S. industries resilient in dealing with trade uncertainty ? The case of U.S.-China trade war," Post-Print hal-02523186, HAL.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jamal Bouoiyour & Refk Selmi, 2016. "The Price of Political Uncertainty: Evidence from the 2016 U.S. Presidential Election and the U.S. Stock Markets," Papers 1612.06200, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2017.
    2. Pham, Huy Nguyen Anh & Ramiah, Vikash & Moosa, Nisreen & Huynh, Tam & Pham, Nhi, 2018. "The financial effects of Trumpism," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 264-274.
    3. Jamal Bouoiyour, Refk Selmi, 2018. "Are UK industries resilient in dealing with uncertainty? The case of Brexit," European Journal of Comparative Economics, Cattaneo University (LIUC), vol. 15(2), pages 277-292, December.
    4. Delia DiaconaÅŸu & Seyed Mehdian & Ovidiu Stoica, 2023. "The Global Stock Market Reactions to the 2016 U.S. Presidential Election," SAGE Open, , vol. 13(2), pages 21582440231, June.
    5. Goodell, John W. & Vähämaa, Sami, 2013. "US presidential elections and implied volatility: The role of political uncertainty," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 1108-1117.
    6. Dao, Thong M. & McGroarty, Frank & Urquhart, Andrew, 2019. "The Brexit vote and currency markets," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 153-164.
    7. Chan, Kam Fong & Gray, Philip & Gray, Stephen & Zhong, Angel, 2020. "Political uncertainty, market anomalies and Presidential honeymoons," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
    8. Doriana Cucinelli & Vincenzo Farina & Paola Schwizer & Maria Gaia Soana, 2021. "Better the Devil You Know: The Impact of Brexit Political Uncertainty on European Financial Markets," International Journal of Business and Management, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 15(6), pages 1-62, July.
    9. Julia Darby & Jun Gao & Siobhan Lucey & Sheng Zhu, 2019. "Is heightened political uncertainty priced in stock returns? Evidence from the 2014 Scottish independence referendum," Working Papers 1913, University of Strathclyde Business School, Department of Economics.
    10. Wael Bousselmi & Patrick Sentis & Marc Willinger, 2018. "Impact of the Brexit vote announcement on long-run market performance," CEE-M Working Papers hal-01954920, CEE-M, Universtiy of Montpellier, CNRS, INRA, Montpellier SupAgro.
    11. Qadan, Mahmoud & Idilbi, Yasmeen, 2022. "Presidential honeymoons, political cycles and the commodity market," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    12. Baur, Dirk G. & Smales, Lee A., 2020. "Hedging geopolitical risk with precious metals," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 117(C).
    13. Killins, Robert N. & Ngo, Thanh & Wang, Hongxia, 2022. "Politics and equity markets: Evidence from Canada," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    14. Selmi, Refk & Mensi, Walid & Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Bouoiyour, Jamal, 2018. "Is Bitcoin a hedge, a safe haven or a diversifier for oil price movements? A comparison with gold," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 787-801.
    15. Kwabi, Frank Obenpong & Boateng, Agyenim & Wonu, Chizindu & Kariuki, Charles & Du, Anna, 2023. "Political uncertainty and cross-border equity portfolio allocation decisions: International evidence," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).
    16. Luu Duc Huynh, Toan, 2020. "The effect of uncertainty on the precious metals market: New insights from Transfer Entropy and Neural Network VAR," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    17. Jamal Bouoiyour & Refk Selmi, 2017. "Political elections and uncertainty -Are BRICS markets equally exposed to Trump's agenda?," Papers 1701.02182, arXiv.org.
    18. Das, Debojyoti & Kannadhasan, M., 2020. "The asymmetric oil price and policy uncertainty shock exposure of emerging market sectoral equity returns: A quantile regression approach," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 563-581.
    19. Goodell, John W. & McGroarty, Frank & Urquhart, Andrew, 2015. "Political uncertainty and the 2012 US presidential election: A cointegration study of prediction markets, polls and a stand-out expert," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 162-171.
    20. Angosto-Fernández Pedro Luis & Ferrández-Serrano Victoria, 2022. "World capital markets facing the first wave of COVID-19: Traditional event study versus sensitivity to new cases," Economics and Business Review, Sciendo, vol. 8(4), pages 5-38, December.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:scotjp:v:67:y:2020:i:2:p:166-185. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/sesssea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.