Shunning uncertainty: The neglect of learning opportunities
AbstractFinancial, managerial, and medical decisions often involve alternatives whose possible outcomes have uncertain probabilities. In contrast to alternatives whose probabilities are known, these uncertain alternatives offer the benefits of learning. In repeat-choice situations, such learning brings value. If probabilities appear favorable (unfavorable), a choice can be repeated (avoided). In a series of experiments involving bets on the colors of poker chips drawn from bags, decision makers often prove to be blind to the learning opportunities offered by uncertain probabilities. They forgo significant expected payoffs when they shun uncertain alternatives in favor of known ones. Worse, when information is revealed, many make choices contrary to learning. Priming with optimal strategies offers little improvement. Such decision makers violate identified requirements for making rational decisions.
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Elsevier in its journal Games and Economic Behavior.
Volume (Year): 79 (2013)
Issue (Month): C ()
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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/622836
Risk; Uncertainty; Learning; Information; Gamblerʼs fallacy;
Other versions of this item:
- Trautmann, Stefan T. & Zeckhauser, Richard J., 2011. "Shunning Uncertainty: The Neglect of Learning Opportunities," Working Paper Series rwp11-044, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government.
- Zeckhauser, Richard Jay & Trautmann, Stefan T, 2011. "Shunning Uncertainty: The Neglect of Learning Opportunities," Scholarly Articles 5347068, Harvard Kennedy School of Government.
- D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
- D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search, Learning, and Information
- G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
- C91 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Design of Experiments - - - Laboratory, Individual Behavior
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