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Negative recency, randomization device choice, and reduction of compound lotteries

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  • Kaivanto, Kim
  • Kroll, Eike B.

Abstract

We report an experiment in which subjects are not indifferent between real-money lotteries implemented with randomization devices that are equivalent under the Reduction Axiom. Instead, choice behavior is consistent with subjective distortion of conditional probability, and this persists in treatment conditions that control for (i) computational limitations and (ii) possible confounding by ratio bias.

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File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S016517651100601X
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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Economics Letters.

Volume (Year): 115 (2012)
Issue (Month): 2 ()
Pages: 263-267

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Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:115:y:2012:i:2:p:263-267

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/ecolet

Related research

Keywords: Reduction of compound lotteries; Negative recency effect; Law of small numbers; Design of experiments; St. Petersburg paradox; Myopic loss aversion;

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References

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  1. Jose-Luis Pinto-Prades & Jorge-Eduardo Martinez-Perez & Jose-Maria Abellan-Perpinan, 2006. "The influence of the ratio bias phenomenon on the elicitation of health states utilities," Judgment and Decision Making, Society for Judgment and Decision Making, vol. 1, pages 118-133, November.
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Cited by:
  1. Crosetto, Paolo & Filippin, Antonio, 2012. "The "Bomb" Risk Elicitation Task," IZA Discussion Papers 6710, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  2. Paolo Crosetto & Antonio Filippin, 2013. "A Theoretical and Experimental Appraisal of Five Risk Elicitation Methods," Jena Economic Research Papers 2013-009, Friedrich-Schiller-University Jena, Max-Planck-Institute of Economics.
  3. Trautmann, Stefan T. & Zeckhauser, Richard J., 2011. "Shunning Uncertainty: The Neglect of Learning Opportunities," Working Paper Series rwp11-044, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government.

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