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Cyclical convergence in per capita carbon dioxide emission in US states: A dynamic unobserved component approach

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  • de Lucas-Santos, Sonia
  • Delgado-Rodríguez, María Jesús
  • Cabezas-Ares, Alfredo

Abstract

In this paper we evaluate whether the US states have been able to achieve convergence in their carbon emission cycles which may be a key factor in taking a leap as regards the development of a US climate change policy. The use of a dynamic unobserved component approach and a time-varying parameter model enable estimation of the short run dynamics of energy convergence over the extended period 1960–2017. To date, this type of analysis has not received enough attention in the literature. The results reveal the existence of cross-state links in the fluctuations of CO2 emissions, although the degree to which a good part of the states are co-moving is weak. We also find that cyclical convergence patterns differ considerably in both the level and trajectories across the US states. The difficulties in increasing synchronization of the US CO2 emissions highlight the importance of the states to lead climate change mitigation actions. The present study presents valuable information of interest regarding the short-run characteristics in carbon dioxide emissions, for better understanding of factors affecting CO2 mitigation policies.

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  • de Lucas-Santos, Sonia & Delgado-Rodríguez, María Jesús & Cabezas-Ares, Alfredo, 2021. "Cyclical convergence in per capita carbon dioxide emission in US states: A dynamic unobserved component approach," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 217(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:217:y:2021:i:c:s0360544220324567
    DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2020.119349
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    CO2 emissions; Dynamic unobserved component model; Factor model; Cyclical convergence; Climate change policy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C38 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Classification Methdos; Cluster Analysis; Principal Components; Factor Analysis
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • Q51 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Valuation of Environmental Effects

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