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Value investing in emerging markets: risks and benefits

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  • Kargin, Vladislav

Abstract

This paper identifies a subset of emerging markets that have higher than average expected returns and studies risk properties of this subset by investment simulations. It is found that: (1) the portfolio of "value" emerging markets generates superior returns, and (2) statistical measures of its risk are close to the corresponding measures for the portfolio of all emerging markets. The statistical significance of these results were checked by a bootstrap procedure. The results imply that the optimal share of emerging markets increases from 0% for an equally weighted portfolio to about 25% for the portfolio of undervalued emerging markets.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Emerging Markets Review.

Volume (Year): 3 (2002)
Issue (Month): 3 (September)
Pages: 233-244

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Handle: RePEc:eee:ememar:v:3:y:2002:i:3:p:233-244

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/620356

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  1. William N. Goetzmann & Philippe Jorion, 1997. "Re-emerging Markets," NBER Working Papers 5906, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Harvey, Campbell R, 1995. "Predictable Risk and Returns in Emerging Markets," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 8(3), pages 773-816.
  3. Tom Arnold & Philip Hersch & J. Harold Mulherin & Jeffry Netter, 1999. "Merging Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 54(3), pages 1083-1107, 06.
  4. Masters, Timothy, 1998. "Just what are we optimizing, anyway?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 277-290, June.
  5. Granger, C.W.J. & Pesaran, M. H., 1999. "Economic and Statistical Measures of Forecast Accuracy," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9910, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  6. Bekaert, Geert & Harvey, Campbell R., 2003. "Emerging markets finance," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 10(1-2), pages 3-56, February.
  7. Pesaran, M Hashem & Timmermann, Allan, 2000. "A Recursive Modelling Approach to Predicting UK Stock Returns," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 110(460), pages 159-91, January.
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Cited by:
  1. Gupta, R. & Donleavy, G.D., 2009. "Benefits of diversifying investments into emerging markets with time-varying correlations: An Australian perspective," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 160-177, April.
  2. Kortas, Mohamed & L'Her, Jean-Francois & Roberge, Mathieu, 2005. "Country selection of emerging equity markets: benefits from country attribute diversification," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 6(1), pages 1-19, April.
  3. Hamza, Olfa & Kortas, Mohamed & L'Her, Jean-Francois & Roberge, Mathieu, 2006. "International equity portfolios: Selecting the right benchmark for emerging markets," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 7(2), pages 111-128, June.

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