IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/ecosys/v40y2016i3p444-452.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Mind the gap: Computing finance-neutral output gaps in Latin-American economies

Author

Listed:
  • Amador-Torres, Juan S.
  • Gomez-Gonzalez, Jose Eduardo
  • Ojeda-Joya, Jair N.
  • Jaulin-Mendez, Oscar F.
  • Tenjo-Galarza, Fernando

Abstract

We compute a measure of the finance-neutral potential output for Colombia, Chile and Mexico. Our methodology is based on Borio et al. (2013, 2014) and incorporates the cycle of credit, house prices and the real exchange rate in the computation of the output gap. The literature on business cycles in emerging market economies, particularly papers focusing on Latin American economies, has highlighted the importance of including shocks to the interest rate in world capital markets together with financial frictions, terms of trade fluctuations, and a procyclical government spending process. Our results show that around the financial crises of the 1990s the finance-neutral output gap behaved differently than the traditional measures observed by policymakers. In particular, gaps are higher before crises and lower after them.

Suggested Citation

  • Amador-Torres, Juan S. & Gomez-Gonzalez, Jose Eduardo & Ojeda-Joya, Jair N. & Jaulin-Mendez, Oscar F. & Tenjo-Galarza, Fernando, 2016. "Mind the gap: Computing finance-neutral output gaps in Latin-American economies," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 40(3), pages 444-452.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecosys:v:40:y:2016:i:3:p:444-452
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ecosys.2015.09.007
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0939362516300292
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.ecosys.2015.09.007?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Fernando Tenjo & Martha López, 2010. "Early Warning Indicators for Latin America," Revista ESPE - Ensayos Sobre Política Económica, Banco de la República, vol. 28(63), pages 232-259, December.
    2. Mr. Andreas Billmeier, 2004. "Ghostbusting: Which Output Gap Measure Really Matters?," IMF Working Papers 2004/146, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Apel, Mikael & Jansson, Per, 1999. "A theory-consistent system approach for estimating potential output and the NAIRU," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 64(3), pages 271-275, September.
    4. Moritz Schularick & Alan M. Taylor, 2012. "Credit Booms Gone Bust: Monetary Policy, Leverage Cycles, and Financial Crises, 1870-2008," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(2), pages 1029-1061, April.
    5. Kiyotaki, Nobuhiro & Moore, John, 1997. "Credit Cycles," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 105(2), pages 211-248, April.
    6. Claessens, Stijn & Kose, M. Ayhan & Terrones, Marco E., 2012. "How do business and financial cycles interact?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 178-190.
    7. Claudio Borio & Piti Disyatat & Mikael Juselius, 2014. "A parsimonious approach to incorporating economic information in measures of potential output," BIS Working Papers 442, Bank for International Settlements.
    8. Claudio BorioBy & Piti Disyatat & Mikael Juselius, 2017. "Rethinking potential output: embedding information about the financial cycle," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 69(3), pages 655-677.
    9. Alessi, Lucia & Detken, Carsten, 2011. "Quasi real time early warning indicators for costly asset price boom/bust cycles: A role for global liquidity," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 520-533, September.
    10. Charles Goodhart & Boris Hofmann, 2008. "House prices, money, credit, and the macroeconomy," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 24(1), pages 180-205, spring.
    11. Vetlov, Igor & Pisani, Massimiliano & Hlédik, Tibor & Jonsson, Magnus & Kucsera, Henrik, 2011. "Potential output in DSGE models," Working Paper Series 1351, European Central Bank.
    12. Adolfo Cobo, 2005. "Output Gap In Colombia: An Eclectic Approach," Borradores de Economia 3310, Banco de la Republica.
    13. Tobias Adrian & Paolo Colla & Hyun Song Shin, 2013. "Which Financial Frictions? Parsing the Evidence from the Financial Crisis of 2007 to 2009," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 27(1), pages 159-214.
    14. Frank Smets, 2002. "Output gap uncertainty: Does it matter for the Taylor rule?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 27(1), pages 113-129.
    15. Jos� E. G�mez-Gonz�lez & Jair N. Ojeda-Joya & H�ctor Manuel Z�rate & Fernando Tenjo-Galarza, 2014. "Testing for causality between credit and real business cycles in the frequency domain: an illustration," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(10), pages 697-701, July.
    16. José E. Gómez-González & Jair N. Ojeda-Joya & Catalina Rey-Guerra & Natalia Sicard, 2015. "Testing for Bubbles in the Colombian Housing Market: A New Approach," Revista Desarrollo y Sociedad, Universidad de los Andes,Facultad de Economía, CEDE, August.
    17. Mathias Drehmann & Claudio Borio & Kostas Tsatsaronis, 2012. "Characterising the financial cycle: don't lose sight of the medium term!," BIS Working Papers 380, Bank for International Settlements.
    18. Minetti, Raoul & Peng, Tao, 2013. "Lending constraints, real estate prices and business cycles in emerging economies," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 2397-2416.
    19. Claudio Borio & Mathias Drehmann, 2009. "Assessing the risk of banking crises - revisited," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, March.
    20. Thierry Bracke & Matthieu Bussière & Michael Fidora & Roland Straub, 2010. "A Framework for Assessing Global Imbalances," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(9), pages 1140-1174, September.
    21. Adolfo L.Cobo, 2005. "Output Gap in Colombia: An Eclectic Approach," Borradores de Economia 327, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    22. Tobias Adrian & Paolo Colla & Hyun Song Shin, 2012. "Which Financial Frictions? Parsing the Evidence from the Financial Crisis of 2007-9," NBER Working Papers 18335, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    23. Borio, Claudio, 2014. "The financial cycle and macroeconomics: What have we learnt?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 182-198.
    24. Pedro Marcelo Oviedo, 2004. "Macroeconomic risk and banking crises in emerging market countries: business fluctuations with financial crashes," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Jun.
    25. Thierry Bracke & Matthieu Bussière & Michael Fidora & Roland Straub, 2008. "A framework for assessing global imbalances," Occasional Paper Series 78, European Central Bank.
    26. Katharine Neiss & Edward Nelson, 2002. "Inflation dynamics, marginal cost, and the output gap: evidence from three countries," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Mar.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Enrique Alberola-Ila & Rocío Gondo & Marco Jacopo Lombardi & Diego Urbina, 2016. "Output gaps and policy stabilisation in Latin America: the effect of commodity and capital flow cycles," BIS Working Papers 568, Bank for International Settlements.
    2. Amador-Torres, J. Sebastián, 2017. "Finance-neutral potential output: An evaluation in an emerging market monetary policy context," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 41(3), pages 389-407.
    3. Enrique Alberola & Rocio Gondo & Marco Lombardi & Diego Urbina, 2017. "Output gaps and stabilisation policies in Latin America: The effect of commodity and capital flow cycles," Revista ESPE - Ensayos Sobre Política Económica, Banco de la República, vol. 35(82), pages 40-52, April.
    4. Kátay Gábor & Kerdelhué Lisa & Lequien Matthieu, 2020. "Semi-Structural VAR and Unobserved Components Models to Estimate Finance-Neutral Output Gap," Working papers 791, Banque de France.
    5. repec:bdr:ensayo:v:35:y:2017:i:82:p:71-85 is not listed on IDEAS

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Amador-Torres, J. Sebastián, 2017. "Finance-neutral potential output: An evaluation in an emerging market monetary policy context," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 41(3), pages 389-407.
    2. Stijn Claessens & M Ayhan Kose, 2018. "Frontiers of macrofinancial linkages," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 95.
    3. Harendra Behera & Saurabh Sharma, 2022. "Characterizing India’s Financial Cycle," Journal of Emerging Market Finance, Institute for Financial Management and Research, vol. 21(2), pages 152-183, June.
    4. Fernández-Amador, Octavio, 2016. "Finance-augmented business cycles: A robustness check," Papers 1038, World Trade Institute.
    5. Octavio Fernández-Amador & Martin Gächter & Friedrich Sindermann, 2016. "Finance-augmented business cycles: A robustness check," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 36(1), pages 132-144.
    6. Adél Bosch & Steven F. Koch, 2020. "The South African Financial Cycle and its Relation to Household Deleveraging," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 88(2), pages 145-173, June.
    7. José Eduardo Gómez G. & Jair Ojeda Joya & Fernando Tenjo Galarza & Héctor Manuel Zárate Solano, 2013. "The Interdependence between Credit and Real Business Cycles in Latin American Economies," Borradores de Economia 768, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    8. Terhi Jokipii & Reto Nyffeler & Stéphane Riederer, 2021. "Exploring BIS credit-to-GDP gap critiques: the Swiss case," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics, Springer;Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics, vol. 157(1), pages 1-19, December.
    9. Amat Adarov, 2017. "Financial Cycles in Credit, Housing and Capital Markets: Evidence from Systemic Economies," wiiw Working Papers 140, The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw.
    10. Guido Bulligan & Lorenzo Burlon & Davide Delle Monache & Andrea Silvestrini, 2019. "Real and financial cycles: estimates using unobserved component models for the Italian economy," Statistical Methods & Applications, Springer;Società Italiana di Statistica, vol. 28(3), pages 541-569, September.
    11. Amat Adarov, 2022. "Financial cycles around the world," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(3), pages 3163-3201, July.
    12. Amat Adarov, 2019. "Dynamic Interactions Between Financial and Macroeconomic Imbalances: A Panel VAR Analysis," wiiw Working Papers 162, The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw.
    13. Schüler, Yves S. & Peltonen, Tuomas A. & Hiebert, Paul, 2017. "Coherent financial cycles for G-7 countries: Why extending credit can be an asset," ESRB Working Paper Series 43, European Systemic Risk Board.
    14. Amat Adarov, 2023. "Financial cycles in Europe: dynamics, synchronicity and implications for business cycles and macroeconomic imbalances," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 50(2), pages 551-583, May.
    15. Jorge E. Galán & Javier Mencía, 2021. "Model-based indicators for the identification of cyclical systemic risk," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 61(6), pages 3179-3211, December.
    16. Grintzalis, Ioannis & Lodge, David & Manu, Ana-Simona, 2017. "The implications of global and domestic credit cycles for emerging market economies: measures of finance-adjusted output gaps," Working Paper Series 2034, European Central Bank.
    17. Schüler, Yves S. & Hiebert, Paul P. & Peltonen, Tuomas A., 2020. "Financial cycles: Characterisation and real-time measurement," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 100(C).
    18. Mikkel Hermansen & Oliver Röhn, 2017. "Economic resilience: The usefulness of early warning indicators in OECD countries," OECD Journal: Economic Studies, OECD Publishing, vol. 2016(1), pages 9-35.
    19. Mercè Sala-Rios & Teresa Torres-Solé & Mariona Farré-Perdiguer, 2016. "Credit and business cycles’ relationship: evidence from Spain," Portuguese Economic Journal, Springer;Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestao, vol. 15(3), pages 149-171, December.
    20. Gersbach, Hans & Rochet, Jean-Charles, 2017. "Capital regulation and credit fluctuations," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 113-124.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Potential output; Financial cycle; Asset prices; Kalman filter;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E47 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecosys:v:40:y:2016:i:3:p:444-452. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/osteide.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.