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Does the stock market really cause unemployment? A cross-country analysis

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  • Pan, Wei-Fong

Abstract

This study examines the relationship between the stock market and unemployment in 30 advanced and 11 developing and emerging countries. The results show that the unemployment rate and stock prices are cointegrated in all country groups; further, the causality between stock prices and unemployment appears in all country groups. Specifically, I found a particularly strong and one-way causal direction from stock prices to the unemployment rate in G7 countries. There is a strong bilateral causal relationship between stock prices and unemployment for other advanced countries. However, in the 11 developing and emerging countries, the causality test results indicate a strong Granger causality from unemployment to stock prices. The results for developing and emerging countries suggest that the unemployment rate can help forecast stock prices, but not vice versa. These findings complement existing studies and deliver useful implications for investors and policymakers, and suggest some new lines for future research.

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  • Pan, Wei-Fong, 2018. "Does the stock market really cause unemployment? A cross-country analysis," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 34-43.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecofin:v:44:y:2018:i:c:p:34-43
    DOI: 10.1016/j.najef.2017.11.002
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    Cited by:

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    3. Sibande, Xolani & Gupta, Rangan & Wohar, Mark E., 2019. "Time-varying causal relationship between stock market and unemployment in the United Kingdom: Historical evidence from 1855 to 2017," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 81-88.
    4. Mahdi Moradi & Andrea Appolloni & Grzegorz Zimon & Hossein Tarighi & Maede Kamali, 2021. "Macroeconomic Factors and Stock Price Crash Risk: Do Managers Withhold Bad News in the Crisis-Ridden Iran Market?," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(7), pages 1-16, March.
    5. Deniz Ilalan, 2018. "How US wages effect post-socialist European stock markets: an empirical study," Economics and Business Letters, Oviedo University Press, vol. 7(4), pages 179-188.
    6. Roger E A Farmer, 2020. "The importance of beliefs in shaping macroeconomic outcomes," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 36(3), pages 675-711.
    7. Roger E A Farmer, 2019. "The Indeterminacy Agenda in Macroeconomics," National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) Discussion Papers 507, National Institute of Economic and Social Research.
    8. Wei-fong Pan, 2018. "Unemployment and confidence in Canada: Evidence from national and regional level data," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 38(2), pages 1111-1123.
    9. Periklis Gogas & Theophilos Papadimitriou & Emmanouil Sofianos, 2022. "Forecasting unemployment in the euro area with machine learning," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(3), pages 551-566, April.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Stock market; Unemployment; Developing countries; Granger causality; Panel cointegration;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • J60 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - General

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