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Animal Spirits, the Stock Market, and the Unemployment Rate: Some Evidence for German Data

Author

Listed:
  • Ulrich Fritsche

    (Universität Hamburg (University of Hamburg))

  • Christian Pierdzioch

    (Helmut-Schmidt-Universität (Helmut-Schmidt-University))

Abstract

Models recently studied by Farmer (2012, 2013, 2015) predict that, due to labor-market frictions and "animal spirits", stock-market fluctuations should Granger cause fluctuations of the unemployment rate. We performed several Granger-causality tests on more than half a century of data of German data to test this hypothesis. Confirming findings documented by Farmer (2015) for U.S. data, we found that the stock market Granger causes unemployment in the short run and the long run when we control for a deterministic trend in the unemployment rate. Results of a frequency-domain test show that, in the short run, feedback cannot be rejected, whereas the causality clearly runs from the stock market to the unemployment rate in the medium to long run.

Suggested Citation

  • Ulrich Fritsche & Christian Pierdzioch, 2016. "Animal Spirits, the Stock Market, and the Unemployment Rate: Some Evidence for German Data," Macroeconomics and Finance Series 201601, University of Hamburg, Department of Socioeconomics.
    • Handle: RePEc:hep:macppr:201601
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Roger Farmer, 2012. "The Stock Market Crash of 2008 Caused the Great Recession," 2012 Meeting Papers 145, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    2. Kwiatkowski, Denis & Phillips, Peter C. B. & Schmidt, Peter & Shin, Yongcheol, 1992. "Testing the null hypothesis of stationarity against the alternative of a unit root : How sure are we that economic time series have a unit root?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1-3), pages 159-178.
    3. Farmer, Roger E.A., 2012. "The stock market crash of 2008 caused the Great Recession: Theory and evidence," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(5), pages 693-707.
    4. Toda, Hiro Y. & Yamamoto, Taku, 1995. "Statistical inference in vector autoregressions with possibly integrated processes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 66(1-2), pages 225-250.
    5. Granger, C W J, 1969. "Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 37(3), pages 424-438, July.
    6. Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-1580, November.
    7. Breitung, Jorg & Candelon, Bertrand, 2006. "Testing for short- and long-run causality: A frequency-domain approach," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 132(2), pages 363-378, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Sibande, Xolani & Gupta, Rangan & Wohar, Mark E., 2019. "Time-varying causal relationship between stock market and unemployment in the United Kingdom: Historical evidence from 1855 to 2017," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 81-88.
    2. Deniz Ilalan, 2018. "How US wages effect post-socialist European stock markets: an empirical study," Economics and Business Letters, Oviedo University Press, vol. 7(4), pages 179-188.
    3. Barbieri Hermitte, Riccardo & Cagnazzo, Alberto & Favero, Carlo A. & Felici, Francesco & Macauda, Valeria & Nucci, Francesco & Tegami, Cristian, 2023. "ITFIN: A stock-flow consistent model for the Italian economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 119(C).
    4. Ayad Hicham, 2020. "Government Expenditure and Economic Growth Nexus in Mena Countries: Frequency Domain Spectral Causality Analysis," Economics and Business, Sciendo, vol. 34(1), pages 60-77, January.
    5. Ayesha Serfraz, 2018. "Analyzing Short-Run and Long-Run Causality between FDI Inflows, Labor Productivity and Education in Pakistan," Asian Journal of Economics and Empirical Research, Asian Online Journal Publishing Group, vol. 5(1), pages 36-59.
    6. Pan, Wei-Fong, 2018. "Does the stock market really cause unemployment? A cross-country analysis," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 34-43.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Cointegration; Granger causality; frequency domain; animal spirits; stock market; unemployment rate;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E12 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Keynes; Keynesian; Post-Keynesian; Modern Monetary Theory
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models

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