IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/ecofin/v30y2014icp72-89.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

US dollar exchange rate and food price dependence: Implications for portfolio risk management

Author

Listed:
  • Reboredo, Juan C.
  • Ugando, Mikel

Abstract

This paper uses copulas to study the relationship between the US dollar (USD) exchange rate and prices for food (corn, soybeans, wheat and rice). A number of different copula specifications with different conditional dependence structures and time-varying dependence parameters were employed in the research. Empirical results for weekly data for the period January 1998–October 2012 provided evidence of positive and weak food-USD dependence and no extreme market dependence for corn, wheat and rice, thus confirming that price spikes for these foods were not caused by extreme USD depreciation. For soybeans, however, we found evidence of positive average dependence and asymmetric tail dependence, with positive upper tail dependence confirming the contribution of USD depreciation to soybean price spikes. Given that food commodities are undergoing a financialization process, we also examined the implications of USD links with food prices for food risk policy management. We provide evidence of USD hedging effectiveness in reducing food portfolio risk and downside food risk and also of better overall performance in terms of the investor's loss function than a food-only portfolio.

Suggested Citation

  • Reboredo, Juan C. & Ugando, Mikel, 2014. "US dollar exchange rate and food price dependence: Implications for portfolio risk management," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 72-89.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecofin:v:30:y:2014:i:c:p:72-89
    DOI: 10.1016/j.najef.2014.08.005
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1062940814001016
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.najef.2014.08.005?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Reboredo, Juan C., 2012. "Modelling oil price and exchange rate co-movements," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 419-440.
    2. Lu Yang & Shigeyuki Hamori, 2013. "Dependence structure among international stock markets: a GARCH--copula analysis," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(23), pages 1805-1817, December.
    3. Reboredo, Juan C., 2013. "Is gold a safe haven or a hedge for the US dollar? Implications for risk management," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(8), pages 2665-2676.
    4. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Jia Xu, 2013. "Impact of exchange rate volatility on commodity trade between US and Hong Kong," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 27(1), pages 81-109, January.
    5. Christopher L. Gilbert, 2010. "How to Understand High Food Prices," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 61(2), pages 398-425, June.
    6. Marco Lombardi & Chiara Osbat & Bernd Schnatz, 2012. "Global commodity cycles and linkages: a FAVAR approach," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 43(2), pages 651-670, October.
    7. Victor DeMiguel & Lorenzo Garlappi & Raman Uppal, 2009. "Optimal Versus Naive Diversification: How Inefficient is the 1-N Portfolio Strategy?," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(5), pages 1915-1953, May.
    8. Frans A. De Roon & Theo E. Nijman & Chris Veld, 2000. "Hedging Pressure Effects in Futures Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(3), pages 1437-1456, June.
    9. Diebold, Francis X & Gunther, Todd A & Tay, Anthony S, 1998. "Evaluating Density Forecasts with Applications to Financial Risk Management," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(4), pages 863-883, November.
    10. Akram, Q. Farooq, 2009. "Commodity prices, interest rates and the dollar," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(6), pages 838-851, November.
    11. Andrews, Donald W K, 1993. "Tests for Parameter Instability and Structural Change with Unknown Change Point," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 821-856, July.
    12. Christoffersen, Peter F, 1998. "Evaluating Interval Forecasts," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(4), pages 841-862, November.
    13. Gohin, A. & Chantret, F., 2010. "The long-run impact of energy prices on world agricultural markets: The role of macro-economic linkages," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 333-339, January.
    14. Vansteenkiste, Isabel, 2009. "How important are common factors in driving non-fuel commodity prices? A dynamic factor analysis," Working Paper Series 1072, European Central Bank.
    15. Gilbert, Christopher L, 1989. "The Impact of Exchange Rates and Developing Country Debt on Commodity Prices," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 99(397), pages 773-784, September.
    16. Zakoian, Jean-Michel, 1994. "Threshold heteroskedastic models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 18(5), pages 931-955, September.
    17. Glosten, Lawrence R & Jagannathan, Ravi & Runkle, David E, 1993. "On the Relation between the Expected Value and the Volatility of the Nominal Excess Return on Stocks," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(5), pages 1779-1801, December.
    18. Lu Yang & Shigeyuki Hamori, 2014. "Gold prices and exchange rates: a time-varying copula analysis," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(1), pages 41-50, January.
    19. Susan Thomas & Mandira Sarma & Ajay Shah, 2003. "Selection of Value-at-Risk models," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(4), pages 337-358.
    20. Andrew J. Patton, 2006. "Modelling Asymmetric Exchange Rate Dependence," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 47(2), pages 527-556, May.
    21. Huang, Hung-Hsi & Lin, Shin-Hung & Wang, Ching-Ping & Chiu, Chia-Yung, 2014. "Adjusting MV-efficient portfolio frontier bias for skewed and non-mesokurtic returns," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 59-83.
    22. Reboredo, Juan C., 2011. "How do crude oil prices co-move?: A copula approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(5), pages 948-955, September.
    23. Ke Tang & Wei Xiong, 2010. "Index Investment and Financialization of Commodities," NBER Working Papers 16385, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    24. Kroner, Kenneth F & Ng, Victor K, 1998. "Modeling Asymmetric Comovements of Asset Returns," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 11(4), pages 817-844.
    25. Harri, Ardian & Nalley, Lanier & Hudson, Darren, 2009. "The Relationship between Oil, Exchange Rates, and Commodity Prices," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 41(2), pages 501-510, August.
    26. Hansen, Bruce E, 1997. "Approximate Asymptotic P Values for Structural-Change Tests," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 15(1), pages 60-67, January.
    27. Kwon, Dae-Heum & Koo, Won W., 2009. "Price Transmission Channels of Energy and Exchange Rate on Food Sector: A Disaggregated Approach based on Stage of Process," 2009 Annual Meeting, July 26-28, 2009, Milwaukee, Wisconsin 49334, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    28. Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen & Harvey, Hanafiah & Hegerty, Scott W., 2013. "The effects of exchange-rate volatility on commodity trade between the U.S. and Brazil," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 70-93.
    29. Andrews, Donald W K & Ploberger, Werner, 1994. "Optimal Tests When a Nuisance Parameter Is Present Only under the Alternative," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 62(6), pages 1383-1414, November.
    30. Lambert, David K. & Miljkovic, Dragan, 2010. "The sources of variability in U.S. food prices," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 210-222, March.
    31. Benjamin Senauer, 2008. "Food Market Effects of a Global Resource Shift Toward Bioenergy," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 90(5), pages 1226-1232.
    32. Reboredo, Juan C., 2012. "Do food and oil prices co-move?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 456-467.
    33. Beg, A.B.M. Rabiul Alam & Anwar, Sajid, 2012. "Sources of volatility persistence: A case study of the U.K. pound/U.S. dollar exchange rate returns," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 165-184.
    34. Reboredo, Juan C., 2013. "Is gold a hedge or safe haven against oil price movements?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 130-137.
    35. Mitchell, Donald, 2008. "A note on rising food prices," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4682, The World Bank.
    36. Jungho Baek & Won W. Koo, 2010. "Analyzing Factors Affecting U.S. Food Price Inflation," Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics/Revue canadienne d'agroeconomie, Canadian Agricultural Economics Society/Societe canadienne d'agroeconomie, vol. 58(3), pages 303-320, September.
    37. Abbott, Philip C. & Hurt, Christopher & Tyner, Wallace E., 2011. "What’s Driving Food Prices in 2011?," Issue Reports 112927, Farm Foundation.
    38. Yuki Toyoshima & Tadahiro Nakajima & Shigeyuki Hamori, 2013. "Crude oil hedging strategy: new evidence from the data of the financial crisis," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(12), pages 1033-1041, June.
    39. Reboredo, Juan C., 2013. "Modeling EU allowances and oil market interdependence. Implications for portfolio management," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 471-480.
    40. Rodriguez, Juan Carlos, 2007. "Measuring financial contagion: A Copula approach," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 401-423, June.
    41. Nazlioglu, Saban & Soytas, Ugur, 2012. "Oil price, agricultural commodity prices, and the dollar: A panel cointegration and causality analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 1098-1104.
    42. Lien, Donald & Yang, Li & Zhou, Chunyang & Lee, Geul, 2014. "Co-movement between RMB and New Taiwan Dollars: Evidences from NDF markets," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 265-272.
    43. Bessembinder, Hendrik, 1992. "Systematic Risk, Hedging Pressure, and Risk Premiums in Futures Markets," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 5(4), pages 637-667.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. M. Thenmozhi & Shipra Maurya, 2020. "Crude Oil Volatility Transmission Across Food Commodity Markets: A Multivariate BEKK-GARCH Approach," Journal of Emerging Market Finance, Institute for Financial Management and Research, vol. 20(2), pages 131-164, August.
    2. Faruk Urak & Abdulbaki Bilgic & Gürkan Bozma & Wojciech J. Florkowski & Erkan Efekan, 2022. "Volatility in Live Calf, Live Sheep, and Feed Wheat Return Markets: A Threat to Food Price Stability in Turkey," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 12(4), pages 1-24, April.
    3. Law, Kai Po Jenny & Satoh, Eiji & Yoshimi, Taiyo, 2018. "Exchange rate pass-through at the individual product level: Implications for financial market integration," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 261-271.
    4. Jammazi, Rania & Tiwari, Aviral Kr. & Ferrer, Román & Moya, Pablo, 2015. "Time-varying dependence between stock and government bond returns: International evidence with dynamic copulas," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 74-93.
    5. Veysel INAL & Serif CANBAY & Mustafa KIRCA, 2023. "Determinants of Food Prices in Türkiye: Fourier Engle-Granger Cointegration Test," Journal of Economic Policy Researches, Istanbul University, Faculty of Economics, vol. 10(1), pages 133-156, January.
    6. Pasrun Adam & Rosnawintang Rosnawintang & La Ode Saidi & La Tondi & La Ode Arsad Sani, 2018. "The Causal Relationship between Crude Oil Price, Exchange Rate and Rice Price," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 8(1), pages 90-94.
    7. Abdulsalam Abidemi Sikiru & Afees A. Salisu, 2023. "Hedging against risks associated with travel and tourism stocks during COVID‐19 pandemic: The role of gold," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(2), pages 1872-1882, April.
    8. Chanchala Hathurusingha & Neda Abdelhamid & David Airehrour, 2019. "Forecasting Models Based on Data Analytics for Predicting Rice Price Volatility: A Case Study of the Sri Lankan Rice Market," Journal of Information & Knowledge Management (JIKM), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 18(01), pages 1-20, March.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Reboredo, Juan C., 2012. "Do food and oil prices co-move?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 456-467.
    2. Reboredo, Juan C., 2013. "Is gold a safe haven or a hedge for the US dollar? Implications for risk management," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(8), pages 2665-2676.
    3. Jammazi, Rania & Reboredo, Juan C., 2016. "Dependence and risk management in oil and stock markets. A wavelet-copula analysis," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 866-888.
    4. Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Nguyen, Duc Khuong & Reboredo, Juan Carlos & Wen, Xiaoqian, 2014. "Dependence of stock and commodity futures markets in China: Implications for portfolio investment," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 21(C), pages 183-200.
    5. Reboredo, Juan C., 2013. "Modeling EU allowances and oil market interdependence. Implications for portfolio management," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 471-480.
    6. Reboredo, Juan C., 2012. "Modelling oil price and exchange rate co-movements," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 419-440.
    7. Reboredo, Juan C. & Ugando, Mikel, 2015. "Downside risks in EU carbon and fossil fuel markets," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 17-35.
    8. Reboredo, Juan C., 2013. "Is gold a hedge or safe haven against oil price movements?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 130-137.
    9. Reboredo, Juan C. & Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Albulescu, Claudiu Tiberiu, 2015. "An analysis of dependence between Central and Eastern European stock markets," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 474-490.
    10. Giray GOZGOR & Baris KABLAMACI, 2014. "The linkage between oil and agricultural commodity prices in the light of the perceived global risk," Agricultural Economics, Czech Academy of Agricultural Sciences, vol. 60(7), pages 332-342.
    11. Wen, Xiaoqian & Bouri, Elie & Roubaud, David, 2017. "Can energy commodity futures add to the value of carbon assets?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 194-206.
    12. Reboredo, Juan C. & Rivera-Castro, Miguel A., 2013. "A wavelet decomposition approach to crude oil price and exchange rate dependence," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 42-57.
    13. Nazlioglu, Saban & Soytas, Ugur, 2011. "World oil prices and agricultural commodity prices: Evidence from an emerging market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 488-496, May.
    14. Zhu, Hui-Ming & Li, Rong & Li, Sufang, 2014. "Modelling dynamic dependence between crude oil prices and Asia-Pacific stock market returns," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 208-223.
    15. Tong, Bin & Wu, Chongfeng & Zhou, Chunyang, 2013. "Modeling the co-movements between crude oil and refined petroleum markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 882-897.
    16. Petropoulos, Fotios & Apiletti, Daniele & Assimakopoulos, Vassilios & Babai, Mohamed Zied & Barrow, Devon K. & Ben Taieb, Souhaib & Bergmeir, Christoph & Bessa, Ricardo J. & Bijak, Jakub & Boylan, Joh, 2022. "Forecasting: theory and practice," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 705-871.
      • Fotios Petropoulos & Daniele Apiletti & Vassilios Assimakopoulos & Mohamed Zied Babai & Devon K. Barrow & Souhaib Ben Taieb & Christoph Bergmeir & Ricardo J. Bessa & Jakub Bijak & John E. Boylan & Jet, 2020. "Forecasting: theory and practice," Papers 2012.03854, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2022.
    17. repec:ipg:wpaper:2014-561 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. Reboredo, Juan C. & Ugolini, Andrea, 2015. "Systemic risk in European sovereign debt markets: A CoVaR-copula approach," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 214-244.
    19. Wei Su, Chi & Wang, Xiao-Qing & Tao, Ran & Oana-Ramona, Lobonţ, 2019. "Do oil prices drive agricultural commodity prices? Further evidence in a global bio-energy context," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 172(C), pages 691-701.
    20. Serra, Teresa & Zilberman, David, 2013. "Biofuel-related price transmission literature: A review," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 141-151.
    21. Wang, Yudong & Wu, Chongfeng & Yang, Li, 2014. "Oil price shocks and agricultural commodity prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 22-35.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Food prices; US dollar exchange rate; Co-movement; Risk;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C50 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - General
    • Q11 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Aggregate Supply and Demand Analysis; Prices
    • Q14 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agricultural Finance
    • Q18 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agricultural Policy; Food Policy; Animal Welfare Policy

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecofin:v:30:y:2014:i:c:p:72-89. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/620163 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.