IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/ecmode/v89y2020icp577-589.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Exploring GDP growth volatility spillovers across countries

Author

Listed:
  • Abosedra, Salah
  • Arayssi, Mahmoud
  • Ben Sita, Bernard
  • Mutshinda, Crispin

Abstract

This study takes a portfolio approach to investigate GDP growth volatility spillovers among 120 countries of the world during the 1960–2017 period. Based on the ratios of growth rate to standard deviation, we rank these countries in pools of high-, midsize-, and low-income growth. Using a spillover index that is based on variance decompositions under a vector autoregressive framework, we analyze the sources of growth volatility dynamics in the world in terms of volatility proportions from and to others. We find that high-income growth countries are net transmitters, while low-income growth countries are net recipients of growth volatility. We also find that it takes several years for low-income growth countries to absorb growth shocks of global nature. Overall, our analyses illustrate the importance of partnership in risk sharing as it is related to portfolio strategies and risk management.

Suggested Citation

  • Abosedra, Salah & Arayssi, Mahmoud & Ben Sita, Bernard & Mutshinda, Crispin, 2020. "Exploring GDP growth volatility spillovers across countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 577-589.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:89:y:2020:i:c:p:577-589
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2019.11.015
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0264999319303761
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.econmod.2019.11.015?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Fengler, Matthias R. & Gisler, Katja I.M., 2015. "A variance spillover analysis without covariances: What do we miss?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 174-195.
    2. Francis X. Diebold & Kamil Yilmaz, 2009. "Measuring Financial Asset Return and Volatility Spillovers, with Application to Global Equity Markets," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 119(534), pages 158-171, January.
    3. Diebold, Francis X. & Yılmaz, Kamil, 2014. "On the network topology of variance decompositions: Measuring the connectedness of financial firms," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 182(1), pages 119-134.
    4. Ahamada, Ibrahim & Coulibaly, Dramane, 2011. "How does financial development influence the impact of remittances on growth volatility?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(6), pages 2748-2760.
    5. Kose, M. Ayhan & Prasad, Eswar S. & Terrones, Marco E., 2006. "How do trade and financial integration affect the relationship between growth and volatility?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(1), pages 176-202, June.
    6. Ramey, Garey & Ramey, Valerie A, 1995. "Cross-Country Evidence on the Link between Volatility and Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(5), pages 1138-1151, December.
    7. Partha Chatterjee & Malik Shukayev, 2006. "Are Average Growth Rate and Volatility Related?," Staff Working Papers 06-24, Bank of Canada.
    8. Antonakakis, N. & Badinger, H., 2016. "Economic growth, volatility, and cross-country spillovers: New evidence for the G7 countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 52(PB), pages 352-365.
    9. Robert Lensink & Oliver Morrissey, 2006. "Foreign Direct Investment: Flows, Volatility, and the Impact on Growth," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 14(3), pages 478-493, August.
    10. Luc Bauwens & Sébastien Laurent & Jeroen V. K. Rombouts, 2006. "Multivariate GARCH models: a survey," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(1), pages 79-109, January.
    11. Antonio Fatás & Ilian Mihov, 2013. "Policy Volatility, Institutions, and Economic Growth," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 95(2), pages 362-376, May.
    12. Pesaran M.H. & Schuermann T. & Weiner S.M., 2004. "Modeling Regional Interdependencies Using a Global Error-Correcting Macroeconometric Model," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 22, pages 129-162, April.
    13. Mona Haddad & Jamus Jerome Lim & Cosimo Pancaro & Christian Saborowski, 2013. "Trade openness reduces growth volatility when countries are well diversified," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 46(2), pages 765-790, May.
    14. Huang, Ho-Chuan (River) & Fang, WenShwo & Miller, Stephen M., 2014. "Does financial development volatility affect industrial growth volatility?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 307-320.
    15. Matteo Bugamelli & Francesco Paternò, 2011. "Output Growth Volatility and Remittances," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 78(311), pages 480-500, July.
    16. Sushanta Mallick & Tomoe Moore, 2008. "Foreign Capital in a Growth Model," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(1), pages 143-159, February.
    17. Julian di Giovanni & Andrei A. Levchenko, 2009. "Trade Openness and Volatility," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 91(3), pages 558-585, August.
    18. Philippe Aghion & Steven Durlauf (ed.), 2005. "Handbook of Economic Growth," Handbook of Economic Growth, Elsevier, edition 1, volume 1, number 1.
    19. Mathonnat, Clément & Minea, Alexandru, 2019. "Forms of democracy and economic growth volatility," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 594-603.
    20. Lee, Jim, 2010. "The link between output growth and volatility: Evidence from a GARCH model with panel data," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 106(2), pages 143-145, February.
    21. Bernard Ben Sita, 2013. "Volatility links between US industries," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(15), pages 1273-1286, August.
    22. Kim, Dong-Hyeon & Lin, Shu-Chin & Suen, Yu-Bo, 2016. "Trade, growth and growth volatility: New panel evidence," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 384-399.
    23. Trypsteen, Steven, 2017. "The growth-volatility nexus: New evidence from an augmented GARCH-M model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 15-25.
    24. Diebold, Francis X. & Yilmaz, Kamil, 2012. "Better to give than to receive: Predictive directional measurement of volatility spillovers," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 57-66.
    25. Cronin, David, 2014. "The interaction between money and asset markets: A spillover index approach," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 39(PA), pages 185-202.
    26. Badinger, Harald, 2010. "Output volatility and economic growth," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 106(1), pages 15-18, January.
    27. Awartani, Basel & Maghyereh, Aktham Issa, 2013. "Dynamic spillovers between oil and stock markets in the Gulf Cooperation Council Countries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 28-42.
    28. Apostolou, Apostolos & Beirne, John, 2019. "Volatility spillovers of unconventional monetary policy to emerging market economies," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 118-129.
    29. Razin, Assaf & Sadka, Efraim & Coury, Tarek, 2003. "Trade openness, investment instability and terms-of-trade volatility," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(2), pages 285-306, December.
    30. Dan Ben-David & Robin L. Lumsdaine & David H. Papell, 2003. "Unit roots, postwar slowdowns and long-run growth: Evidence from two structural breaks," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 28(2), pages 303-319, April.
    31. Kang, Sang Hoon & McIver, Ron & Yoon, Seong-Min, 2017. "Dynamic spillover effects among crude oil, precious metal, and agricultural commodity futures markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 19-32.
    32. Bollerslev, Tim, 1990. "Modelling the Coherence in Short-run Nominal Exchange Rates: A Multivariate Generalized ARCH Model," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 72(3), pages 498-505, August.
    33. Malik, Adeel & Temple, Jonathan R.W., 2009. "The geography of output volatility," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(2), pages 163-178, November.
    34. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 2003. "Computation and analysis of multiple structural change models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(1), pages 1-22.
    35. Kwame Mireku & Ellen Animah Agyei & Daniel Domeher, 2017. "Trade openness and economic growth volatility: An empirical investigation," Cogent Economics & Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 5(1), pages 1385438-138, January.
    36. Zhou, Xiangyi & Zhang, Weijin & Zhang, Jie, 2012. "Volatility spillovers between the Chinese and world equity markets," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 247-270.
    37. Asli Demirgüç-Kunt & Enrica Detragiache, 1998. "The Determinants of Banking Crises in Developing and Developed Countries," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 45(1), pages 81-109, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Thomas H. W. Ziesemer, 2023. "Semi-endogenous growth in a non-Walrasian DSEM for Brazil: estimation and simulation of changes in foreign income, human capital, R&D, and terms of trade," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 56(2), pages 1147-1183, April.
    2. Zhang, Hongwei & Jin, Chen & Bouri, Elie & Gao, Wang & Xu, Yahua, 2023. "Realized higher-order moments spillovers between commodity and stock markets: Evidence from China," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 30(C).
    3. Abuzayed, Bana & Bouri, Elie & Al-Fayoumi, Nedal & Jalkh, Naji, 2021. "Systemic risk spillover across global and country stock markets during the COVID-19 pandemic," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 180-197.
    4. Bouri, Elie & Lei, Xiaojie & Xu, Yahua & Zhang, Hongwei, 2023. "Connectedness in implied higher-order moments of precious metals and energy markets," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 263(PB).
    5. Wang, Yihan & Bouri, Elie & Fareed, Zeeshan & Dai, Yuhui, 2022. "Geopolitical risk and the systemic risk in the commodity markets under the war in Ukraine," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 49(C).
    6. Salisu, Afees A. & Bouri, Elie & Gupta, Rangan, 2022. "Out-of-sample predictability of gold market volatility: The role of US Nonfarm Payroll," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 482-488.
    7. Giorgiana Roxana Ene, 2023. "A Snapshot of Where We Are. A Gross Domestic Product Analysis Related to Household Energy Price Index in the European Union," Ovidius University Annals, Economic Sciences Series, Ovidius University of Constantza, Faculty of Economic Sciences, vol. 0(1), pages 360-367, August.
    8. Khandokar Istiak & Aviral Kumar Tiwari & Humaira Husain & Kazi Sohag, 2021. "The Spillover of Inflation among the G7 Countries," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(8), pages 1-20, August.
    9. Giudici, Paolo & Leach, Thomas & Pagnottoni, Paolo, 2022. "Libra or Librae? Basket based stablecoins to mitigate foreign exchange volatility spillovers," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 44(C).
    10. Syed Jawad Hussain Shahzad & Elie Bouri & Ladislav Kristoufek & Tareq Saeed, 2021. "Impact of the COVID-19 outbreak on the US equity sectors: Evidence from quantile return spillovers," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 7(1), pages 1-23, December.
    11. Abdelaziz Hakimi & Rim Boussaada & Majdi Karmani, 2022. "Is the relationship between corruption, government stability and non‐performing loans non‐linear? A threshold analysis for the MENA region," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(4), pages 4383-4398, October.
    12. Bouri, Elie & Harb, Etienne, 2022. "The size of good and bad volatility shocks does matter for spillovers," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    13. Bouri, Elie, 2023. "Spillovers in the joint system of conditional higher-order moments: US evidence from green energy, brown energy, and technology stocks," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 210(C), pages 507-523.
    14. Natalia I. Doré & Aurora A. C. Teixeira, 2023. "Empirical Literature on Economic Growth, 1991–2020: Uncovering Extant Gaps and Avenues for Future Research," Global Journal of Emerging Market Economies, Emerging Markets Forum, vol. 15(1), pages 7-37, January.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Gnangnon, Sèna Kimm, 2021. "Tax reform and public debt instability in developing countries: The trade openness and public revenue instability channels," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 54-67.
    2. Gnangnon, Sèna Kimm, 2023. "Effect of the duration of membership in the GATT/WTO on economic growth volatility," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 448-467.
    3. Liow, Kim Hiang & Huang, Yuting, 2018. "The dynamics of volatility connectedness in international real estate investment trusts," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 195-210.
    4. Montalbano, Pierluigi, 2011. "Trade Openness and Developing Countries' Vulnerability: Concepts, Misconceptions, and Directions for Research," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 39(9), pages 1489-1502, September.
    5. Guhathakurta, Kousik & Dash, Saumya Ranjan & Maitra, Debasish, 2020. "Period specific volatility spillover based connectedness between oil and other commodity prices and their portfolio implications," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    6. Maitra, Debasish & Chandra, Saurabh & Dash, Saumya Ranjan, 2020. "Liner shipping industry and oil price volatility: Dynamic connectedness and portfolio diversification," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    7. Maruska Vizek, 2019. "The Sovereign Bond Markets Return And Volatility Spillovers," Economic Thought and Practice, Department of Economics and Business, University of Dubrovnik, vol. 28(2), pages 597-610, december.
    8. Tony Cavoli & Sasidaran Gopalan & Ramkishen S. Rajan, 2020. "Does Financial Inclusion Amplify Output Volatility in Emerging and Developing Economies?," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 31(4), pages 901-930, September.
    9. Dahl, Roy Endré & Jonsson, Erlendur, 2018. "Volatility spillover in seafood markets," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 12(C), pages 44-59.
    10. McIver, Ron P. & Kang, Sang Hoon, 2020. "Financial crises and the dynamics of the spillovers between the U.S. and BRICS stock markets," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    11. Nishimura, Yusaku & Sun, Bianxia, 2018. "The intraday volatility spillover index approach and an application in the Brexit vote," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 241-253.
    12. Antonakakis, Nikolaos & Badinger, Harald, 2012. "Output Volatility, Economic Growth, and Cross-Country Spillovers: New Evidence for the G7 Countries," Department of Economics Working Paper Series 141, WU Vienna University of Economics and Business.
    13. Trypsteen, Steven, 2017. "The growth-volatility nexus: New evidence from an augmented GARCH-M model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 15-25.
    14. Antonakakis, N. & Badinger, H., 2016. "Economic growth, volatility, and cross-country spillovers: New evidence for the G7 countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 52(PB), pages 352-365.
    15. Kang, Sang Hoon & Maitra, Debasish & Dash, Saumya Ranjan & Brooks, Robert, 2019. "Dynamic spillovers and connectedness between stock, commodities, bonds, and VIX markets," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    16. Kang, Sang Hoon & McIver, Ron & Yoon, Seong-Min, 2017. "Dynamic spillover effects among crude oil, precious metal, and agricultural commodity futures markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 19-32.
    17. Evrim Mandacı, Pınar & Cagli, Efe Çaglar & Taşkın, Dilvin, 2020. "Dynamic connectedness and portfolio strategies: Energy and metal markets," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    18. Cipollini, Andrea & Lo Cascio, Iolanda & Muzzioli, Silvia, 2018. "Risk aversion connectedness in five European countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 68-79.
    19. Emiliano Magrini & Pierluigi Montalbano, 2012. "Trade openness and vulnerability to poverty: Vietnam in the long-run (1992-2008)," Working Paper Series 3512, Department of Economics, University of Sussex Business School.
    20. Éric Rougier & Nicolas Yol, 2019. "The volatility effect of diaspora's location," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 42(6), pages 1796-1827, June.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    GDP growth; Growth volatility; Spillover; Vector autoregression; Variance decomposition;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:89:y:2020:i:c:p:577-589. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/30411 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.